Nestor Cortes Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The decision to pitch Nestor Cortes on three days’ rest could be justified by Cleveland’s 84 wRC+ (20.7 K%, 6.9 HR/FB) vs LHP this year, which is about 20 points less than their performance against RHP, though he wasn’t extremely impressive in the Game Two against them, striking out and walking three each of 23 batters. Not being a pitcher who generally pitches deep into games anyway, it could be just twice through the order on short rest or even much less should he experience similar traffic on the bases to that last start. Cortes finished up his season with 13.1 shutout innings, striking out 15 of 45 batters. On the season, he struck out 26.5% (20.3 K-BB%) of batters with an 11.1 SwStr% and only allowed 5.3% Barrels/BBE, despite a 33.5 GB% because batters only made hard contact 34.7% of the time against him. That put his 2.44 ERA most in line with, but still well below a 2.70 xERA with contact neutral estimators around three and a half. A Yankee defense with 16 Runs Prevented and a .268 BABIP allowed helped and Harrison Bader will only make It better, but a .232 BABIP and 82.8 LOB% still merit some regression concerns. Jose Trevino was also the best defensive catcher in the game this year (20.5 CDA) by a pretty fair margin. Cortes did get in two starts against Cleveland this year (12.1 IP – 3 ER – 2 HR – 2 BB – 14 K – 42 BF), both prior to the break. While the cutter was a strong offering for Cortes too, the four-seamer was his best pitch (44%, -2.2 RV/100, 25.4 Whiff%, .205 wOBA, .239 xwOBA), while the Guardians were the fifth worst offense against fastballs in the second half (-0.5 wFB/C). The projected Cleveland lineup includes just three batters above a 100 wRC+ vs LHP this year and one of them was the left-handed Andres Gimenez, while batters from that side of the plate had just a .161 wOBA and .226 xwOBA against Cortes this season. He and fellow ex-Met Amed Rosario (one of the other two above a 100 wRC+ against LHP this year) did drive in the only two runs against Cortes in Game Two, the latter with a fifth inning home run. Nobody in the projected Cleveland lineup exceeded a .180 ISO vs LHP this year. None the less, Cortes is essentially tied for the worst projection on the board tonight, but is alone as the worst projected value on either site. He is tied for the most expensive price tag on DraftKings and second most on FanDuel.

RHBs had only a bit more success against Cortes this season, within two points of a .260 wOBA and xwOBA. Despite not being one of the three in the projected lineup exceeding a 100 wRC+ vs LHP this year, Jose Ramirez (97 wRC+, .178 ISO vs LHP this year) is the only top 10 projected Cleveland bat with the offense pulling up the rear today at a 3.04 run team total. However, Josh Naylor (53 wRC+, .064 ISO) projects as a top 10 value on either site and could face a couple of RHPs later in the game. Oscar Gonzalez (107 wRC+, .174 ISO) projects as a top FD value ($2.5K). Owen Miller (77 wRC+, .117 ISO) projects as a top DraftKings value ($2.4K).

Friday night’s slate is just a single game short of the full 15, but features just three $10K pitches and only two more in the $9K range on both sites and considering some of the hitter friendly weather around the league tonight, at least a couple of them may be over-priced. The most expensive arm on the board and only one exceeding $10K on both sites is Nestor Cortes, who has a 4.68 ERA that matches his 4.61 FIP with a 22.3 K% that’s more befitting his 11.8 SwStr% over his last five starts without facing more than 22 batters in any of them. He’s actually increased his season SwStr% over this span, but did have a really good one last time out in Cleveland, striking out six with a single run allowed (his only Quality Start in his last five). We’ve been waiting for some heavy regression all season, not just in his ERA, but in his strikeout rate. A .243 BABIP and 87.1 LOB% suggest he still has a bit to go on the former front, while a now 2.61 K/SwStr illustrates that he’s nearly there on the latter. Considering not only all of the above, but a difficult matchup (Red Sox 118 wRC+, 21.8 K% vs LHP) in a very difficult park (Fenway) with hitter friend weather and umpiring, this looks like a disaster in waiting. Cortes projects outside the top seven on either site and his only real value here is that baseball is so unpredictable and his ownership should be nearly non-existent at his current price in this particular spot.

Zack Wheeler is the only other pitcher to exceed $10K on either site, which he does by $200 on FanDuel. He has just two non-Quality Start blips over his last 12 starts and simply continues to be one of the best pitchers in the league. Maybe not the top of the top tier, but he does everything well above average, from a 27.9 K% to a 5.6 BB% with a great contact profile (86.2 mph EV, 5.7% Barrels/BBE), while pitching deep into games. Non-FIP estimators (6.6 HR/FB) range barely from a 2.75 xERA to a 3.09 SIERA. Difficult matchup (Cardinals 104 wRC+, 20.7 K% vs RHP), but a predominantly right-handed lineup (.254 xwOBA against Wheeler this year) and a significant park upgrade without any weather hindrance or an umpiring assignment yet. Wheeler is a top three projected arm, but just a marginal value on either site. If you’re looking for a steady pitcher with a high floor (non-GPPs), he’s your guy.

Charlie Morton is exactly $10K on FanDuel, but $800 less on DraftKings and has allowed just four runs over his last 26.2 innings. He has a 35.7 K% (29.2 K-BB%) over his last six starts. Although he’s still generating less than 40% of his contact on the ground, which is new a career low, this is a completely different pitcher than we saw the first couple of months of the season. Even with some leftover stink, all season estimators are now below four with this run, nearly half a run or more below his 4.34 ERA. Atlanta is a hitter friendly park and the Nationals don’t strike out a ton (19.9 K% vs RHP), but really don’t pack much of a punch either (96 wRC+ vs RHP). Morton projects fifth best on FanDuel, sixth on DraftKings, also with marginal value, but projections may be under-shooting him in this case. He’s a strong GPP choice should his ownership projections remain low.

Sonny Gray costs more than $9K on either site, but has struck out just 15 of 86 batters with an 8.7 SwStr% since returning from the IL with his velocity bouncing up and down from start to start. However, he’s also walked just four and now has the best walk rate of his career (6.4%). Also a career low by quite a bit is his 43.6 GB%, though he’s still only allowing 6.0% Barrels/BBE. All estimators are well above his 2.47 ERA with a 2.94 xERA the only one below three. More contact neutral ones hover around three and a half. The Rangers have just a 92 wRC+ with a 23.4 K% vs RHP and with the roof closed, it’s a pitcher’s park in Texas. While Gray projects as a top five DraftKings arm, a lack of consistently strong workloads pushes him towards the end of the top 10 on FanDuel. The upside doesn’t seem to be there right now though.

Tyler Anderson is the last pitcher to reach $9K on both sites. He has struck out exactly two in three of his five starts, but has Quality Starts with a combined 14 strikeouts in his other two. The strikeouts have been inconsistent, but what Tyler Anderson has done is walk very few batters (4.4%) with a lot of weak contact (86.2 mph EV, 6.1% Barrels/BBE, 31.7% 95+ mph) by leaning on his changeup more often this year. He’s completed six innings in eight of his last 10 starts with estimators ranging from a 3.25 xERA to a 4.20 DRA, depending on how much you buy into the contact profile being sustainable. At home, against the Cubs (104 wRC+, 23.5 K% vs LHP), he projects near the bottom half of the top 10, but could be an interesting GPP choice with low enough ownership. However, it seems clear that the middle of the board is going to be more interesting than the top of a lackluster top of the board tonight.

A 13 game Tuesday night board features just two currently regressing pitchers above $10K (on both sites), a few arms coming off long IL stints, some spot starters and maybe a bullpen game or two. You may have to work a bit harder for your pitching choices on Tuesday than you did on Monday, when nearly every pitcher on the slate was viable. Regression doesn’t mean a pitcher who is garnering results well above their performance is suddenly going to produce ones well below that to even things out. It generally happens in the way it has to Nestor Cortes. Over the last month (five starts), he has just a 21.8 K% with a 10.1 SwStr% that’s the same as it is for the season (10.2%). That’s probably closer to what we should expect going forward, with maybe a few more strikeouts. Even then, his 82.7 LOB% is keeping his ERA (2.73) below estimators over the last month. We can certainly give him some credit for managing contact well this season (34.5 GB%, 15.7 IFFB%, 5.6% Barrels/BBE), which gives him contact inclusive estimators below three, but contact neutral estimators around three and a half for the season. Cortes is the most expensive pitcher on either site and does get a park upgrade against a banged up Tampa Bay lineup, but the Rays have just an 18.5 K% vs LHP this year. Cortes is PlateIQ’s top projected pitcher currently and a top four projected value on either site, which says more about the state of pitching on this slate than anything else. Contrary to Monday night, we can find major flaws in nearly every top of the board pitcher tonight. Too see how the rest of them match up, check out Tuesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

If it seems like you’ve had to work a bit more for your daily fantasy lineups this week, you’re not mistaken. We’ve had issues with weather and the quality of pitching. Yesterday, a top pitcher was scratched…and still made the start! Unfortunately, things won’t get that much easier on tonight’s 10 game board, as no less than three games carry significant weather concern. While that does not include the only pitcher to reach the $10K price point on both sites tonight, there are another set of issues there. Nestor Cortes has struck out at least seven and also completed at least three full trips through the lineup both in four of his last five starts, though his strikeout rate has actually dipped slightly over this span and now sits at 29.7%. With just a 10.0 SwStr%, this was to be expected and probably will regress a bit further, while a .239 BABIP, 88.6 LOB% and 6.6 HR/FB are all similarly unsustainable. That doesn’t mean he’s a bad pitcher, but not nearly as good as his 1.50 ERA and probably not as good as estimators that run only as high as a 3.07 xFIP either. In Minnesota, the Twins own a 114 wRC+ and 13 HR/FB with the expectation of getting Carlos Correa back tonight. Against LHP, they have a 110 wRC+ with just a 20.7 K%. While Cortes is still the second best projected pitcher by PlateIQ on this board, he is not among the top values. Adequately priced is the phrase that comes to mind. For more on tonight’s top of the board pitchers, including the top projected arm and a top projected value, check out Wednesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

An eight game Wednesday night slate appears to favor pitching over hitting tonight, which is a bit different than the last couple of days, due to temperatures dropping around the country. Tonight’s board features two pitchers exceeding $10K on both sites and another two exceeding $9K on both. Nestor Cortes is the most expensive pitcher on the board, within $300 of $11K on either site and the only thing nasty in this spot may be the weather forecast, which suggests is the riskiest game tonight. While there’s no doubt that Cortes has turned himself into a quality pitcher, he continues to defy the laws of estimators and strikeouts. A 2.16 xERA is the only estimator not more than half a run above his 1.70 ERA because he’s managed contact extremely well (4.7% Barrels/BBE, 32.8% 95+ mph EV), although that says nothing about sustainability. However, his 30.2 K% comes with just a 9.7 SwStr% and not particularly elite 18.6 CStr%. Question everything…starting with Nestor Cortes’s 2022 results. That said, even a drop in his strikeout rate would probably only increase his estimators to around three and a half with a 5.9 BB%. The Angels have a 110 wRC+, 22.9 K% and 14.4 HR/FB vs LHP this season. Cortes is the second best projected pitcher by PlateIQ (projections are fluid and subject to change), but below several cheaper arms in terms of projected value (points per dollar). For more on top of the board pitching tonight, including the top projected pitcher, who may also be the top value, check out Wednesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.