Patrick Sandoval Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

With pitcher projections just recently updating, we find that just one of the top six projected FanDuel values exceeds $9K, but are any of these pitchers usable on a single pitcher site? The answer is maybe…if you embrace some volatility. Kyle Muller now becomes the top projected FD value for $6K and third best DK one for $1.4K more. He has made two spot starts this year, striking out eight of 38 batters, but also walking seven and getting lit up for nine runs with his only barrel (4.3%) going out. He has just a 9.3 K-BB% over 44.1 career innings, but a 22.2 K-BB% over 23 AAA starts this year. The Nationals have no power (91 wRC+, 8.6 HR/FB), but are still contact prone (20.2 K%) vs LHP. He’s a tough trust on FanDuel.

Projecting as a top three value on either site (best on DraftKings), Patrick Sandoval’s 9.7 BB% doesn’t show up in every start. He walked four last time out after just a total of four in his previous five, but we can’t predict when it will and he’s walked at least three in 40% of his starts, while the 23.9 K% isn’t exactly dominant. He does also have Quality Starts in 40% of his starts (only two with at least three walks) and a great contact profile (87.4 mph EV, 5.5% Barrels/BBE, 34% 95+ mph EV). Yet, a 4.07 xERA is his worst estimator with a near full run gap from his best estimator, which is a 3.18 FIP, the only one within half a run of his 3.01 ERA. Just eight of 21 barrels have left the yard, but he also has seven unearned runs. Sandoval is in a pretty great spot today though (A’s 86 wRC+, 22.9 K% vs LHP), even if the park is hitter friendly, which certainly explains the projection. Sandoval is certainly playable on FanDuel with the most risk in a walk rate that could limit his workload.

Even at less than $6K against a team with a 25.2 K% vs RHP, Paolo Espino is not rosterable against the Braves, but projecting as the fifth best value on either site for less than $7.5K, it might be fairly useless to quote Jose Berrios’s numbers at this point (19.5 K%, 5.7 BB%, 10.0% Barrels/BBE with estimators ranging from a 4.13 SIERA to a 5.26 xERA). It would probably benefit GPP players more to point out that he has 10 Quality Starts with at least six strikeouts (exactly one-third of his starts) and has allowed at least four runs with less than five strikeouts 10 times also. Feast or famine baby! Toss a coin. It’s a tough matchup (Yankees 113 wRC+, 22.4 K%, 15.4 HR/FB), but Berrios does have a decently sized split and will almost certainly face a majority right-handed lineup tonight.

The last strongly projected cheaper value, a 4.3 HR/FB is unsustainable, as only three of Bailey Ober’s 14 barrels (10.3%) have left he yard, explaining the nearly two run gap between his 3.07 FIP and 4.96 xERA. On a positive note, the walk rate isn’t much higher (4.9%), resulting in a 15.2 K-BB%, but with just a 25.2 GB%. Contact neutral estimators don’t handle extreme fly ball pitchers very well either, but all non-FIP estimators are more than half a run above his 3.71 ERA. Great pitching weather expected in Minnesota, where Ober will face a predominantly (almost entirely) right-handed lineup (.267 wOBA vs Ober, but .336 xwOBA this year). The White Sox have a 95 wRC+ and 9.3 HR/FB vs RHP, but just a 20.8 K%. Aside from the forecast, the only attractive thing here is Ober’s cost (less than $7K), which probably makes him a more useful SP2 on DraftKings.

German Marquez has six straight Quality Starts on the road and has failed to complete six innings only once on the road this year. However, his 6.9% Barrels/BBE may be a fluke with a 90.5 mph EV, 47.4% 95+ mph EV and less than half his contact on the ground (47.4%). That kind of contact profile with an 18.6 K% (10.5 K-BB%) probably wouldn’t play well in any park, although his 5.15 ERA is more than half a run above all non-FIP estimators. He’s probably too cheap ($5.7 DK) in San Francisco (97 wRC+, 23.6 K% vs RHP). For just $6.1K, Kyle Bradish struck out 10 Astros last time out. Estimators ranging from a 3.81 ERA to a 4.31 FIP are more than one-third of a run below his 4.65 ERA. He’s in another tough spot in Boston (99 wRC+, 22 K%), but with a potentially pitcher friendly umpire. Logan Webb may be a bit too cheap on DraftKings ($7.2K) with a 20.3 K% (14 K-BB%) and 56.7 GB% for a home spot against the Rockies (80 wRC+, 22.3 K% vs RHP).

While we can find reasons to fade the most expensive arms tonight, the top two projected pitchers and values on the board are both in the $9K range tonight, but are there any additional arms we can consider on a single pitcher site and who are our cheaper SP2 types on DraftKings? The answer to the first question may be no. Among the top five projected values on FanDuel, all are either more than $9K or less than $6K (Austin Voth against the Tigers and Luis Ortiz at the Yankees). Voth has a great matchup (72 wRC+, 25.2 K%, 7.4 HR/FB vs RHP), but has just a 7.3 K-BB% over his last 26 innings with his velocity in steady decline. He’s thrown just 17 pitches over the last 10 days, as the O’s may have been looking to give him a break to see if he can bounce back. He still has a near average 12.9 K-BB% on the season with all estimators below his 4.36 ERA without any dropping below four. This is a great spot, but we probably shouldn’t expect six innings here though. Aaron Ashby projects as the seventh best FanDuel value for $7K, but probably won’t be pitching very deep into his game against the Mets (105 wRC+, 20.2 K%, 8.6 BB% vs LHP) in his first start back from the IL.

A 23.6 K% might be a bit disappointing after Patrick Sandoval punched out 25.9% last year and he’s walked a few too many (9.3%), but the contact profile has been a major positive (87.3 mph EV, 5.3% Barrels/BBE, 33.9% 95+ mph EV). You would think that the xERA would be the estimator outlier, more closely aligning with his 2.99 ERA, but it’s actually his worst estimator at 4.03. Go figure. With eight of 20 barrels leaving the yard, a 3.18 FIP is his best. He costs exactly $9K, as the eighth best projected FanDuel value, but the Rangers have punished LHP this year (115 wRC+, 22.8 K%, 16.7 HR/FB vs LHP). Stick to those $9K guys on FanDuel.

If you’re absolutely looking to punt your DK SP2, Cole Ragans struck out more batters than he walked for just the second time in six starts. Both times against the A’s. A 2.6 K-BB% is a far cry from his 20+ K-BB% at both AA and AAA this year, which suggests some upside against the Angels (88 wRC+, 24.3 K% vs LHP) for just $5.2K, while Sandoval costs just $7.4K on DK and Voth $6.7K.

The two top strikeout rates on the board over the last 30 days don’t belong to pitchers at the high end of the board tonight, but rather a couple of up and coming west coast arms, who have really impressed this summer. Logan Gilbert and Patrick Sandoval may be two of the top values on the board tonight. Heck, they may even be two of the top overall arms available tonight and at a cost below $9K on either site. In fact, Sandoval costs exactly $8.8K on either site, while Gilbert shares that price tag on FanDuel, but is $1.6K less on DraftKings.

Gilbert was quickly pulled after allowing three runs to the A’s in his last start, despite striking out five of 15 batters with a single walk and no home runs. It’s been the rare blemish on his major league record that includes a 23.2 K-BB% that makes up for a 32.9 GB% with a 91 mph EV over 12 starts. Of course Seattle is a very forgiving park too. He’s not there tonight, but Texas also plays as a negative run environment when the roof is closed. Gilbert’s 3.81 ERA perfectly matches his xFIP. The Rangers have an 86 wRC+ vs RHP and 54 wRC+ over the last seven days. They also just traded their most dangerous hitter. Tonight’s projected lineup includes five batters above a 25 K% vs RHP this year, but also four below 17.5%. Regardless, it’s a very favorable spot for Gilbert with the chief concern being if the Mariners are going to start limiting his workload more often, but that shouldn’t be the case. He’s only at 61.2 total innings this year and has faced at least 23 batters in seven of his last nine starts.

Patrick Sandoval is breaking out. He came one out from a complete game one-hitter last time out, striking out 13 of the 30 Twins he faced and more than half his contact on the ground with an average exit velocity below 80 mph. Complete dominance! With a 27.9 K%, 16.3 SwStr%, 53.1 GB%, 85.7 mph EV and 6.1% Barrels/BBE, he needs to be recognized. His 3.52 ERA is within half a run of all non-DRA estimators. While he did throw 108 pitches in chasing a no—hitter last time out, he’s gone over the century mark in four straight starts now and should not be effected here. He has a tougher matchup against an Oakland lineup that just added a big piece in Starling Marte, but he has a 27.1 K% vs LHP, one of three batters in the projected lineup above 27%. The matchup may not be ideal, but it’s manageable and Sandoval is simply too affordable for the production he’s been supplying.

One other pitcher to keep in mind for those looking for a cheap SP2 with upside on DraftKings is Touki Toussaint. Missing bats has not been the problem for Toussaint, so that fact that he’s struck out 15 of 51 with a 14.2 SwStr% is not a surprise, but the two walks is. The contact profile may still be an issue with an alarming 95.7 mph EV after two starts, but at least he has a 53.3 GB%. Last year, he combined the hard contact with a double digit walk rate and ground ball rate below 40%. The Brewers did add Eduardo Escobar and Atlanta is certainly a positive run environment, but Milwaukee is currently without Christian Yelich with the projected lineup including four batters at a 24.5 K% or higher vs RHP this year. Toussaint is a risky high upside arm for less than $7K on DraftKings. Daniel Lynch is a highly regarded arm coming off eight shutout innings of Detroit for just $5.2K tonight, but he only struck out four of 28 batters and has to face a loaded Blue Jays’ lineup in their return to Toronto tonight. You’re not going to find anyone close to Toussaint’s upside for less than $7K tonight.

Patrick Sandoval will be making his 2nd career start tonight vs. the White Sox, who come into this game with a 12th ranked 101 wRC+ and 23.9% K rate vs. LHP. Their 101 wRC+ feels a bit lucky, as they do own the league’s highest BABIP vs. LHP (.342) and their xwOBA vs. LHP on the year is just .302 (26th in the league). The White Sox have just one hitter in their projected lineup (Jose Abreu) that has an xwOBA greater than .335 vs. LHP on the year. Sandoval is not a top prospect; he owns a Future Value of 40 and did struggle to a 5.01 xFIP over 60 1/3 innings in AAA this year. However, he flashed some very good numbers in the minors in 2017-2018 and has posted very good K rates throughout his minors career. Projection systems (notoriously conservative with young players) currently have him pegged as a 4.75 ERA / 8.3 K/9 guy going forward. In addition to a nice matchup tonight, Sandoval will get a very pitcher-friendly ump behind the plate tonight in Bill Miller, as well as likely working with great pitch framer Max Stassi. Sandoval is $7.1k on Fanduel and $7.8k on Draftkings tonight and provides pretty good upside for that price range, albeit with a wide range of outcomes. The White Sox currently have a 4.16 implied line for tonight.