Paul Blackburn Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

With a lack of extremely positive run environments on the board, Cleveland may be the top one. Yet, they are just below five implied runs (4.84 is fifth highest today) against a contact prone pitcher (16.2 K%, 8.7 SwStr%). That might be because Paul Blackburn shut them out for 6.1 innings in his last start with a season high five strikeouts, but that would seem his absolute ceiling and unlikely to be repeated in Cleveland. Where he could pose a problem is in his 50.7 GB% and 87 mph aEV, that could limit hard air contact (5.3% Barrels/BBE) along with Kevin's forecast calling for sustained winds blowing in around 15 mph. While we never want to take the top part of this lineup including Francisco Lindor (139 wRC+, .281 ISO vs RHP last calendar year, 305 wRC+ last seven days), Michael Brantley (133 wRC+, .207 ISO) and Jose Ramirez (160 wRC+, .304 ISO) off the board. Paying up for them could be difficult if looking at high priced pitching as well. LHBs have just a .284 wOBA with a 53.5 GB% and 28.5 Hard% against Blackburn since last season, though his xwOBA is 51 points higher.

The Royals have a board low 3.82 implied run line, but Paul Blackburn is not a reasonable daily fantasy consideration. He had just a 2.5 K-BB% in 58.2 major league innings last year and has faced just 19 AAA batters this season, coming off a forearm injury. The Oakland bullpen will be active early and they've been occasionally HR prone (42.9 GB%, 12.6 HR/FB). Unfortunately, the Kansas City offense does not contain much power. Mike Moustakas (120 wRC+, .257 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Salvador Perez (97 wRC+, .206 ISO) are the only two bats in the projected lineup (it has not been confirmed yet) who are above a .160 ISO against RHP over the last year. Nobody else is above a 100 wRC+ either.

Coincidentally, almost all of the starters on Thursday's board averaging much less than six innings per start appear on the afternoon slate. Jaime Garcia is the only pitcher on the main five game slate tonight who has averaged less than 5.2 IP per start this season (not counting what the Rays are doing) and he is in one of the higher upside spots on the board against the Baltimore offense. The bullpen behind him is bottom six in terms of FIP (4.28), but more mediocre in terms of their 13.6 K-BB%. This represents a tendency to allow HRs and while their 11.3 HR/FB is not bad at all in the current environment, the Toronto pen easily has the lowest ground ball rate in the majors 36.4%. No other team is within two percentage points. If there is a strength to the Baltimore offense, it's power production. Other spots where pens could have a high workload are with pitchers making their first starts of the season. Paul Blackburn has faced just 19 batters at any level all season, returning from the 60 day DL with a forearm issue. The Oakland bullpen grades similarly to the Toronto one with a 4.18 FIP, 12.7 K-BB% and some HR issues (42.9 GB%, 12.6 HR/FB) despite a power friendly home park. Unfortunately for the opposing offense, power is far from a strength for the Royals. Jalen Beeks makes his major league debut for the Red Sox. He's faced at least 25 batters in each of his last three AAA starts and the Boston bullpen is a deterrent at a 3.42 FIP and 16.3 K-BB%, but top quarter marks in baseball.

Zack Godley was roughed up for the first time this year in his last start in Atlanta, allowing multiple HRs also for the first time. He also struck out a season high nine batters. His 14.5 SwStr% and 57 GB% this year speak of dominance otherwise, but one potential reason for hesitation tonight is not only a hot Washington offense (132 wRC+ since the break) in a difficult run environment, but 129 team sOPS+ against ground ball pitchers. Daniel Murphy leads the charge with a 230 sOPS+, while Ryan Zimmerman (156), Bryce Harper (138) and Anthony Rendon (112) have all been strong as well. Harper and Rendon have each added four HRs with a wRC+ above 300 since the break as well. Paul Blackburn has started just four games with a 1.83 ERA with a SIERA over four runs higher due to a .230 BABIP and 89.1 LOB%. Contact management has been a bit of a strength because despite an 87.8 mph aEV, he's allowed just 1.6% Barrels/BBE due to a strong 54 GB%. That may not be good news against a Mets offense with a 123 sOPS+ against ground ball pitchers. Michael Conforto (188 sOPS+ vs fly ball pitchers) and Lucas Duda (151 sOPS+) lead the elevate and celebrate crowd this year. Coincidentally, they've been the hottest two bats in the lineup since the break, with a 168 wRC+ and 181 wRC+ respectively.