Ross Detwiler Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Ross Detwiler has generated ground balls at a 52.5% clip when contact has been made against him this year and that’s about the only positive concerning his performance. A 6.2 K-BB% results in not a single estimator below 5.37 and he’s still allowed 18 HRs in 59.1 innings with the second highest rate of Barrels/BBE on the board (10.7%) and a .397 xwOBA. If you can imagine it, it’s been even worse over the last month (10 BB%, 8.05 SIERA, .465 xwOBA). To make matters worse (or better depending on your perspective), the forecast calls for winds blowing out to left-center and a significant boost to both run scoring and power tonight. Among the first eight batters in the projected lineup, Francisco Lindor (110 wRC+, .185 ISO), Yasiel Puig (110 wRC+, .158 ISO) and Jose Ramirez (96 wRC+, .178 ISO) are the only batters below a .200 ISO vs LHP this season. Stack the heck out of this lineup, implied for 6.39 runs, in whatever ways fit.

It’s got to be a spirit raiser to Minnesota bats when they found out they were facing Ross Detwiler instead of Lucas Giolito today. Not only are the Twins more dangerous against LHP (split high 126 wRC+ and 21 HR/FB vs LHP). While Detwiler’s 55.4 GB% helps, but he’s still allowed 10.2% Barrels/BBE and has the highest xwOBA on the board (.391). He’s walked eight of his last 22 batters faced without a strikeout. As a result, despite the potentially pitcher friendly conditions Kevin mentioned in his early forecast, the Twins are still the only team outside Coors above six implied runs (6.47). RHBs are sitting on a .423 wOBA and .398 xwOBA against Detwiler this season. Five batters in the projected Minnesota lineup are above a 130 wRC+ and .300 ISO vs LHP this year: Mitch Garver (199 wRC+, .417 ISO), Nelson Cruz (182 wRC+, .449 ISO), Miguel Sano (138 wRC+, .309 ISO), Jonathan Schoop (147 wRC+, .307 ISO) and C.J. Cron (163 wRC+, .325 ISO). Small sample sizes for sure, as any single year sample against LHP is going to be, but these are all guys with strong career numbers against southpaws and the stats this year are so far above average that there’s certainly something there.

Ross Detwiler has the lowest strikeout rate (14.4%) and highest HR/FB (31.8) on the board. As a result, his 7.33 FIP is more than a run and a half higher than the second worst pitcher tonight. He’s allowed 11% Barrels/BBE with a .386 xwOBA despite a 56.3 GB% that’s best on the board. Accepted wisdom for most the season has been that the Rangers are terrible vs LHP (91 wRC+, 26.1 K%). However, since the All Star break, their 117 wRC+ is ninth best in the majors against southpaws with just a 20.8 K%. The Rangers are expected to line up predominantly right-handed tonight and for good reason. Batters from that side of the plate own a .425 wOBA against Detwiler this year. Hunter Pence (150 wRC+, .326 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Danny Santana (114 wRC+, .255 ISO) are big reasons for Texas’s turn around against lefties. Delino DeShields (109 wRC+, .178 ISO) should be a FanDuel ($2.7K) bargain out of the leadoff spot. Both the Rangers and White Sox are tied at 5.25 implied runs, the fifth best mark on the board.

Tyler Alexander makes his major league debut for the Tigers in game two of today’s double header in Chicago. After Fangraphs didn’t even rank him inside Detroit’s top 26 prospects at the end of March this year, Alexander has made a statement at AAA this season with a 20.5 K-BB% in 73.2 innings that boosted his value to where he currently sits fourth in the organization by the same prospect writers with a 45 Future Value grade. He did allow five runs in his last start, but still struck out seven of 16 batters and 19 of his last 42 faced leading into his call up. Encouragingly, Alexander also faced at least 26 batters in three straight starts before his last outing and shouldn’t be facing any major workload constrictions here. While Alexander shouldn’t be confused for a top prospect with immense upside, he’ll be starting his major league career in a strong spot against an offense with some poor peripherals against LHP this year (18.4 K-BB%, 8.2 Hard-Soft%). At just $5.7K on DraftKings, he’d make an interesting compliment to Chris Sale or Walker Buehler. For that matter, the same could nearly be said about Ross Detwiler for $200 more against an even worse offense against southpaws on the other side (26.4 K%, 8.1 HR/FB).

While Sonny Gray is technically the Oakland starting pitcher tonight, he's not expected to pitch more than two innings and is therefore not a relevant fantasy option. Ross Detwiler while likely take over on the mound after Gray departs.

Ross Detwiler owns a 5.15 ERA on the season that is accompanied with a 4.97 SIERA and 29.8% hard hit rate allowed. His splits aren’t massive like a lot of other left-handed pitchers, but he does still fare worse against right-handed batters as we would expect. We should be able to get a lot of the Kansas City bats fairly low-owned tonight, as they are never an exciting offense to stack, and there are so many other options out there on this slate. If looking for a sneaky tournament stack, the Royals are the team to target. Whit Merrifield (130 wRC+, .370 wOBA vs LHP), Paulo Orlando (.156 ISO vs LHP), Salvador Perez (.233 ISO vs LHP), Cheslor Cuthbert (128 wRC+, .368 wOBA, .160 ISO vs LHP), and Kendrys Morales (125 wRC+, .362 wOBA, .214 ISO vs LHP) are the options to consider here.

Despite facing the LH Detwiler tonight, the Cardinals change very little in their lineup and project for five runs against a pitcher that has been hammered by RHBs since last season (.454 wOBA, 32.3 Hard%). While both Carpenter and Moss hit LHP better than most LHBs, Detwiler has held them to a .291 wOBA and 19.8 Hard%. Without any reduction in cost, players should look more towards the RHBs tonight. Stephen Piscotty (161 wRC+, .257 ISO vs LHP since last season) has been red hot (218 wRC+ over the last week) and is a top OF bat against most LHPs. Further down in the order, but $1K less, tournament players could try a similarly hot bat in Randal Grichuk (110 wRC+, .237 ISO vs LHP since 2015). He has a 224 wRC+ and 50 Hard% over the last week. Jedd Gyorko has just a 100 wRC+ and .132 ISO vs LHP since last season, but costs less than $3K out of the two spot tonight and has a 158 wRC+ with a 57.1 Hard% over the last week. Perhaps an unconventional middle to bottom of the lineup stack is in order here, though the top half could prevail against a mediocre bullpen according to today's Relief Brief.

Ross Detwiler has a unique delivery that has allowed him to limit the fly balls allowed to LHBs, giving up a 17% fly ball percentage in 2015. Right-handed bats, however, have been able to hit Detwiler hard at times, leading to a 2.27 HR/9 in 2015. After looking at the White Sox hitters’ wRC+ totals over the last seven days, Tim Anderson is the only right-handed batter with a wRC+ over 100, sitting at 184), and approximately half of his contact has resulted in ground balls. It would be wise to stop short of recommending Detwiler as a pitcher today, but the White Sox do appear to be a punchless offense against a pitcher with stark splits like Detwiler.

Ross Detwiler (5.19 SIERA) is only making his second start of the season tonight on the road against the Rangers. Detwiler only struck out right-handed batters at a 12.2% clip last season. Accompanying those low strikeout totals was a below-average ground ball rate (35.5%), an above-average line drive rate (24.1%), and a 33.3% hard contact rate. Obviously, not a great combination for a pitcher in any matchup, especially against the Rangers in Texas. Ian Desmond (145 wRC+, .396 wOBA, .202 ISO vs LHP) might be the overall play on the board tonight and is a must if stacking Rangers. The other top options for Texas are Adrian Beltre (152 wRC+, .405 wOBA, .231 ISO vs LHP), Jonathan Lucroy (.237 ISO vs LHP), and Carlos Beltran (169 wRC+, .425 wOBA, .276 ISO vs LHP). There is also some upside in Elvis Andrus, who has continued to hit left-handed pitching well, and always goes overlooked by most DFS players. Detwiler is possibly the worst starting pitcher on tonight's slate, and the Rangers are arguably one of the top offenses in baseball. We know what to do here.

Ross Detwiler has worked mostly out of the bullpen the past couple of seasons and not very well. He does have a bit over 60 major league innings since the beginning of last year, in which RHBs have a .477 wOBA with 10 HRs and more walks than strikeouts. This perhaps justifies J.J. Hardy (88 wRC+ vs LHP this season) moving into the 2nd slot in the batting order and Chris Davis (104 wRC+, .207 ISO vs LHP this year) dropping down to 6th. Manny Machado (145 wRC+, .204 ISO vs LHP this season) is the top bat here regardless, though he's extremely expensive on either site. The Orioles have struggled against LHP this year, despite Mark Trumbo's .266 ISO against them, Davis and Machado are the only bats with a wRC+ above 95 this year. Add in a difficult park in Oakland and it's probably why they're not projected for five runs or more (4.7) against a terrible pitcher. Hardy adds some value at SS due to the lineup bump, while Machado and Trumbo remain firmly in play, but there may not be many bargains here.