Ryan Yarbrough

Toronto Blue Jays
Pos: SP | Hand: L
Status: Inactive
player props
FPTS -4 -1 2 5 7 10 13 15 18 21 SAL $7.2K $7.5K $7.9K $8.2K $8.6K $9K $9.3K $9.7K $10K $10.4K
  • FPTS: 5.65
  • FPTS: 9
  • FPTS: 3.65
  • FPTS: 4.25
  • FPTS: 3.8
  • FPTS: 2.25
  • FPTS: -6.3
  • FPTS: 2.1
  • FPTS: 7.9
  • FPTS: 20.85
  • FPTS: 4.65
  • FPTS: 7.25
  • FPTS: 2.55
  • FPTS: 12.5
  • FPTS: 15.2
  • FPTS: 11.85
  • SAL: $6.8K
  • SAL: $10.4K
  • SAL: $7K
  • SAL: $7.8K
  • SAL: $7.5K
  • SAL: $7.5K
  • SAL: $7.7K
  • SAL: $7.8K
  • SAL: $7.8K
  • SAL: $7.7K
  • SAL: $6.8K
  • SAL: $7.3K
  • SAL: $7.5K
  • SAL: $7.3K
  • SAL: $8K
  • SAL: $7.9K
07/21 07/23 07/25 07/27 08/04 08/07 08/11 08/17 08/22 09/01 09/09 09/15 09/19 09/22 09/29
Date Opp DKSAL FDSAL DKFPTS FDFPTS k ip ab sho w hra l er cg ha 3ba bba sba ibba whip hbp qstart 1ba k/9 2ba
2024-09-29 vs. MIA $7.9K $6.1K 11.85 20 3 3 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 1.09 0 0 4 7.36 0
2024-09-22 @ TB $8K $6.1K 15.2 24 5 4 15 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 0 0.75 0 0 2 11.25 0
2024-09-18 @ TEX $7.3K $6.1K 12.5 18 4 2 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 0
2024-09-15 vs. STL $7.5K $6.1K 2.55 5 1 1 6 0 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 1.2 0 0 1 5.4 0
2024-09-09 vs. NYM $7.3K $6.1K 7.25 14 2 3 15 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 0 0.82 2 0 1 4.91 0
2024-09-01 @ MIN $6.8K $6.1K 4.65 7 0 2 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
2024-08-22 vs. LAA $7.7K $6.1K 20.85 33 4 5 18 0 1 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0.6 1 0 3 7.2 0
2024-08-17 @ CHC $7.8K $6.1K 7.9 12 2 2 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0.5 0 0 0 9 0
2024-08-11 vs. OAK $7.8K $6.1K 2.1 6 1 2 9 0 0 0 0 1 0 3 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 1 4.5 2
2024-08-07 vs. BAL $7.7K $6.1K -6.3 -7 0 0 5 0 0 1 0 3 0 1 0 1 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0
2024-08-04 @ NYY $7.5K $6.1K 2.25 3 0 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024-07-26 @ HOU $7.5K $6.1K 3.8 7 2 1 6 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 1.5 0 0 0 13.5 2
2024-07-24 vs. SF $7.8K $6.1K 4.25 6 1 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 0
2024-07-22 vs. SF $7K $6.1K 3.65 6 2 1 4 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 18 0
2024-07-21 vs. BOS $10.4K $6.1K 9 13 3 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20.25 0
2024-07-19 vs. BOS $6.8K $6.1K 5.65 9 0 1 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0
2024-07-14 @ DET $7.3K $6.1K -2.2 2 0 2 15 0 0 0 0 2 0 5 0 2 1 0 2.63 0 0 4 0 1
2024-07-11 @ PHI $7.8K $6.1K 2.1 6 1 2 11 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 3 0 1 2 0 0 0 4.5 0
2024-07-07 vs. MIL $7.5K $6.1K 0.9 6 3 2 13 0 0 1 0 3 0 4 0 2 0 0 3 0 0 2 13.5 1
2024-07-03 vs. ARI $9K $6.1K 6.2 11 3 2 12 0 0 1 1 2 0 2 0 1 0 0 1.13 0 0 1 10.12 0
2024-06-29 @ SF $8.4K $6.1K 2.25 3 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024-06-28 @ SF $8.4K $6.1K 3.3 6 0 2 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0
2024-06-21 vs. LAA $8K $6.1K 2.1 6 2 2 10 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0.5 3 0 1 9 0
2024-06-15 vs. KC $9.4K $6.1K 1.65 3 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0
2024-06-13 vs. TEX $9K $6.1K 7.15 15 3 3 16 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 4 0 0 2 0 0 2 9 0
2024-06-08 @ NYY $8.4K $6.1K 2.7 6 1 2 9 0 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 0 1.5 0 0 1 4.5 0
2024-06-05 @ PIT $8.6K $6.1K 4.35 9 2 3 13 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 0 1.33 0 0 2 6 0
2024-05-29 @ NYM $7.5K $6.1K 5.9 9 1 2 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0.5 0 0 1 4.5 0
2024-05-25 @ CIN $7.3K $6.1K 1.35 5 0 1 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 1 0 0 2.4 0 0 3 0 0
2024-05-24 @ CIN $7.2K $6.1K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024-05-22 vs. ARI $7.1K $6.1K -4 -2 0 1 10 0 0 1 0 2 0 4 0 1 0 0 3.75 0 0 2 0 1
2024-05-19 vs. CIN $7.6K $6.1K 1.35 5 1 1 9 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 1 1.8 1 0 1 5.4 0
2024-05-12 @ SD $9K $5.5K 0.9 2 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
2024-05-11 @ SD $9K $5.5K 1.05 3 0 1 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 0
2024-05-06 vs. MIA $8.1K $5.5K 14.15 21 2 3 10 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0.33 0 0 1 6 0
2024-04-28 @ TOR $6.4K $5.5K 11.8 18 2 4 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0.5 0 0 2 4.5 0
2024-04-24 @ WSH $7.4K $5.5K 6.5 9 1 2 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4.5 0
2024-04-20 vs. NYM $7.3K $5.5K -2.2 -2 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0.75 1 0 0 0 0
2024-04-12 vs. SD $8.2K $5.5K 1.65 3 0 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
2024-04-08 @ MIN $7.8K $5.5K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024-04-07 @ CHC $7.9K $5.5K 12.7 20 3 4 17 0 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0.43 1 0 1 5.79 0
2024-04-02 vs. SF $8.2K $5.5K 2.95 10 1 4 21 0 1 1 0 4 0 7 0 1 0 0 1.85 0 0 4 2.08 2
2024-03-28 vs. STL $6.8K $5.5K 8.15 12 1 3 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0.33 0 0 1 3 0
2024-03-25 vs. LAA $4.5K -- 5.9 9 1 2 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0.5 0 0 0 4.5 0
2024-03-21 vs. SD $10K -- 3.95 8 1 1 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 1.8 0 0 1 5.4 0
2024-03-02 vs. CHC -- -- 12.05 19 3 2 10 0 1 1 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0.86 0 0 1 11.57 0
2024-02-28 @ TEX $4.5K -- 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024-02-26 @ COL $4.5K -- 8.55 14 3 1 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0.6 1 0 0 16.2 0
2023-10-09 vs. ARI $7.1K $6.9K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-09-28 @ COL $6.3K $6.9K -12.2 -9 2 4 26 0 0 3 1 9 0 11 0 1 0 0 3 0 0 3 4.5 5
2023-09-22 vs. SF $7.3K $7.3K 10.65 20 5 3 17 0 0 1 0 2 0 5 0 1 0 0 1.64 0 0 4 12.27 0
2023-09-20 vs. DET $7.3K $7.3K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-09-17 @ SEA $6.8K $7.3K 22.3 38 7 4 21 0 1 0 0 1 0 5 0 2 0 0 1.5 0 0 5 13.5 0
2023-09-13 vs. SD $7.3K $7.3K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-09-10 @ WSH $6.8K $7.3K 11.4 21 5 4 18 0 0 0 0 2 0 5 0 0 0 0 1.25 1 0 5 11.25 0
2023-09-05 @ MIA $7.3K $7.3K 4.35 9 3 3 13 0 0 2 1 3 0 3 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 9 0
2023-09-03 vs. ATL $7.3K $7.3K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-08-30 vs. ARI $7.3K $7.3K 14.6 24 4 4 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3 9 1
2023-08-26 @ BOS $6.7K $7.3K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-08-24 @ CLE $6.7K -- 2.55 9 2 3 17 0 0 0 0 2 0 6 0 1 0 0 2.33 0 0 5 6 1
2023-08-19 vs. MIA $6.4K $7.3K 10.5 15 1 2 6 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4.5 0
2023-08-15 vs. MIL $6.4K $7.3K 8.15 12 2 3 10 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0.33 0 0 0 6 0
2023-08-10 vs. COL $5.9K $7.3K 18.15 27 4 3 10 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0.33 0 0 1 12 0
2023-08-09 @ ARI $6.1K $7.3K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-08-05 @ SD $5.9K $7.3K 11.95 19 3 4 16 0 0 1 0 1 0 3 0 0 0 0 0.69 0 0 2 6.23 0
2023-07-30 vs. MIN $5.3K $7.3K 23.55 43 5 7 27 0 1 1 0 1 0 7 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 5 6.43 1
2023-07-25 @ CLE $5.9K $6.2K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-07-24 @ CLE $5.8K $6.2K 13.9 28 1 6 25 0 1 0 0 1 0 6 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 4 1.5 2
2023-07-22 @ NYY $5.5K $5.6K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-07-19 vs. DET $5.5K $5.6K 10.55 20 4 5 23 0 0 1 1 3 0 6 0 1 0 0 1.24 0 0 4 6.35 1
2023-07-09 @ CLE $5.2K $5.7K 21.3 40 5 6 25 0 1 0 0 1 0 6 0 1 0 0 1.17 0 1 5 7.5 1
2023-05-17 @ SD $7.1K $6K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-05-07 vs. OAK $5K $6K 16.35 26 2 5 20 0 1 0 0 1 0 3 0 0 0 0 0.53 1 0 3 3.18 0
2023-05-02 vs. BAL $5K $6K 3.45 11 5 3 18 0 0 1 1 5 0 5 0 3 0 0 2.18 0 0 3 12.27 1
2023-04-28 @ MIN $8K $5.7K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-04-26 @ ARI $11.2K $5.7K 7.4 15 2 4 16 0 0 0 1 1 0 4 0 1 0 0 1.25 1 0 4 4.5 0
2023-04-21 @ LAA $6.1K $5.9K 4 9 1 4 15 0 0 1 1 2 0 3 0 0 0 0 0.75 2 0 2 2.25 0
2023-04-19 vs. TEX $6K $5.9K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-04-18 vs. TEX $6.1K $5.9K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-04-17 vs. TEX $6.2K $5.9K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-04-16 vs. ATL $6.1K $5.9K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-04-15 vs. ATL $6.2K $5.9K -6.35 -5 0 2 13 0 0 0 0 4 0 3 0 1 0 0 1.71 2 0 3 0 0
2023-04-14 vs. ATL $6.4K $5.9K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-04-12 @ TEX $6.6K $5.9K 1.65 3 0 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0
2023-04-11 @ TEX $6.6K $5.9K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-04-10 @ TEX $6.6K $5.9K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-04-09 @ SF $6.6K $5.9K -2.8 -2 1 1 7 0 0 1 1 3 0 3 0 0 0 0 2.25 0 0 1 6.75 1
2023-04-08 @ SF $6.3K $5.9K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-04-07 @ SF $6K $5.9K 4.4 7 1 1 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0.75 0 0 0 6.75 0
2023-04-06 vs. TOR $5.7K $5.9K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-04-05 vs. TOR $308 $5.9K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-04-04 vs. TOR $5.8K $5.9K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-04-03 vs. TOR $5.9K $5.9K -0.6 4 2 1 10 0 0 0 0 2 0 5 0 1 0 0 4.5 0 0 5 13.5 0
2023-04-02 vs. MIN $6K $5.9K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-04-01 vs. MIN $6.1K $5.9K 3.75 5 0 1 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-03-30 vs. MIN -- -- 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-03-26 @ CHC -- -- 4.95 9 3 3 0 0 0 2 1 3 0 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 9 0
2023-03-22 @ CHW -- -- 5.3 9 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 9 0
2023-03-19 @ KC -- -- 3.05 6 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 9 0
2023-02-27 vs. MIL -- -- 4.25 6 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 0

Ryan Yarbrough Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Bottom of the Board Pitching in High Upside Matchups

The bottom of the board is fairly well favored in point per dollar projections (PlateIQ), especially on DraftKings. Ryan Yarbrough makes his first start or appearance of the season tonight and currently projects as the top point per dollar value on either site for $6K or less. With a career and 2021 84.8 mph EV, he’s an excellent contact manager with great control (5.2 BB%), but few strikeouts (19.5 K%). He’s in a great spot in Oakland (28.3 K% vs LHP), but his own lack of upside and workload uncertainty may still make him a difficult roster.

The good news is that Michael Pineda has not walked any of the 39 batters he’s faced. The bad news is just about everything else, as he’s only struck out four, while his velocity was down below 90 mph in his last start. In fact, it was coming back at him (95 mph EV) more than five mph harder than he was sending it in. The result was three home runs. And it wasn’t any better in his first start (94.1 mph EV), despite the more positive results (no runs). However, he’s another pitcher projections currently like on a point per dollar basis for just $5.8K in a favorable spot at home against the Pirates (86 wRC+, 26.4 K% vs RHP).

Cristian Javier might be the most interesting of the low priced ($6.8K) top five projected values on DraftKings. He has struck out 16 of 51 batters faced this year. With only 27.6% of his contact on the ground and a 90 mph EV, 10% of batted balls against him have been barreled with just one of three leaving the yard. He has walked only three though. Lack of a third pitch (fastball/slider 90%) may work against him in a starting role, while Seattle has a 116 wRC+ and 12.1 K-BB% vs RHP. Yet, he does have some strikeout upside that is otherwise lacking for less than $7K tonight.

Two more potential DK SP2 arms worth mentioning are Tyler Mahle ($6.9K) and Bruce Zimmermann ($6.1K). Neither project all that strongly, but for different reasons. Mahle has a 6.45 ERA that is purely a function of BABIP (.388) and LOB (54.1%). He’s walking too many (10.8%) with fewer strikeouts (23.5%), but the swings and misses are there (11.6 SwStr% vs 11.4% last year) and he hasn’t allowed a single barrel yet with five popups. His worst estimator is a 4.01 SIERA. The Brewers have been hitting the ball better, but are still a below average offense vs RHIP (89 wRC+, 25.1 K% vs RHP) and Milwaukee can be considered a park upgrade for him. Zimmermann has struck out 21 of 80 batters with just six walks, However, there are still issues in a contact profile that contains a 92.4 mph EV. Allowing just four barrels (7.5%) produces a 3.61 xERA that’s right next to a 3.64 DRA as his worst estimators. Things improve by more than half a run when neutralizing the contact profile. Dimension alterations have made it very difficult for right-handed power in Baltimore this year and while the Twins have a 112 wRC+ vs LHP this season, it comes with a 24.7 K%.

Best Point Per Dollar Pitcher

While I generally don't like to roster Rays pitchers because you never know when their going to get a short leash, I'm making an exception for Yarbrough today. Yarbrough hasn't been great so far this season, but he gets a match up vs a Baltimore lineup that doesn't really have many good bats and strikes out at an above league average rate vs LHP. Yarbrough owns a 20% k rate since the beginning of last season and pitched 97 pitches in his last outing meaning that he is fully stretched out. Add in that they are playing in a pitcher friendly ballpark today and there aren't a whole lot of other great pitcher on the slate and Yarbrough immediately just to the top of my list.

Yarbrough in a nice spot vs. depleted Red Sox order

Since July 1st, Ryan Yarbrough has posted an impressive 3.08 ERA, 3.02 FIP, 0.89 WHIP, 21.2% K-BB and just a 25% hard contact rate. He’s also posted just a .248 xwOBA allowed and 82.2 MPH aEV over that span. You’d have been wise to avoid starters against the Red Sox throughout the year, but today they will be without Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi and their lineup isn’t looking like much of a threat. Their lineup today will have just 2 batters who have an xwOBA vs. LHP greater than .320 this year. If Yarbrough can deal with JD Martinez and Xander Bogaerts, he should have no problem with the rest of the order as they are mostly replacement level hitters. Eliminated from playoff contention Friday night, the Red Sox have just a 3.79 implied total for this afternoon’s game that honestly seems a bit high.

Ryan Yarbrough has the top walk rate (3.2%) and 95+ mph EV (25.5%) on the main slate

The top two pitchers today are off the main slate, leaving players with just Jake Odorizzi and Noah Syndergaard reaching $9K on both sites. Taking environment and matchup into account, Ryan Yarbrough may be the top arm on the slate. He combines the best walk rate (3.2%) with the top aEV (83.9 mph) and 95+ mph EV (25.5%) on the board with a league average strikeout rate (22%). Since the All-Star break, he’s allowed more than a single earned run in only two outings. The Orioles have an 18.3 K-BB% and 10.4 Hard-Soft% vs LHP this year and the Dome in Tampa Bay is just one of two negative run environments on the board, along with St Louis. The lone drawback here is Yarbrough’s workload. In his nine starts (without an Opener), he’s faced at least 26 batters five times and failed to complete six innings just once. However, he’s been held to 85 pitches or less in three straight starts after coming one out away from a complete game four starts back. This is the type of risk players are just going to have to accept on a difficult board. Regardless, Yarbrough should still be a strong value for just $7.6K on FanDuel.

Ryan Yarbrough has raised his strikeout rate nearly four points over two starts

Ryan Yarbrough actually pushes fairly deep into starts, facing at least 26 batters in five of seven this season. He’s been completely dominant over his last two starts (15 IP – 6 H – 0 R – 0 BB – 18 K – 51 BF). His strikeout rate has risen from 17.8% to 21.7% after those two starts against Detroit and Seattle. Yarbrough has walked just 13 batters all year (3.2%) and also owns the lost aEV (84.2 mph) and 95+ mph EV (25.9%) on the slate. If he can sustain even a league average strikeout rate, he’s going to be a thing. While he experiences a park downgrade on the trip to Baltimore, it’s a high quality matchup once again for him, as the Orioles have an 18.9 K-BB% and 10.4 Hard-Soft% vs LHP this year. Additionally, they also have a board low 3.3 Hard-Soft% over the last week. Yarbrough costs about $9K on either site.

Rays lefties in position to do some damage at Fenway

Tonight’s forcast suggests some nice hitting weather in one of the most positive run environments in baseball, so load up the Red Sox at a board high 5.98 implied runs, right? That’s the obvious play, but Ryan Yarbrough threw 7.2 innings of one run ball here last month and leads the slate with a 3.8 BB% and 84.6 mph aEV. He’s also increased his strikeout rate to 23.7% over the last month. Yarbrough should be getting the bulk of the game for the Rays. Perhaps the more ideal pitcher to attack (at least in terms of game theory) is Rick Porcello, who allowed just three runs in his last start, the fewest he’s allowed since June 17th. His ERA and SIERA exceed five, while his DRA is above six. His strikeout rate is down to 17.6% with a 9.7% Barrels/BBE mark that’s tied for second highest on the board with Jordan Lyles behind only Vince Velasquez (12.7%). The Rays are the last of five teams above five implied runs tonight (5.02). LHBs have a .339 wOBA (.346 xwOBA) with just a 32 GB% against Porcello over the last calendar year. The Tampa Bay lineup boasts three LHBs (Ji-Man Choi, Austin Meadows and Nate Lowe) all above a 125 wRC+ and .185 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year and also all above a 150 wRC+ and 50% hard hit rate over the last week. Choi leads off tonight and costs just $2.6K on FanDuel.

Yarbrough projects as a nice value arm vs. Orioles

If you’re looking to save at SP on the early slate, Ryan Yarbrough is one of your better options. Over the past 30 days, Yarbrough has pitched to a solid 1.20 ERA, 3.66 SIERA, 3.97 xFIP, 22.7% K Rate and just a 3.5% BB rate. The Orioles come into this game with just an 87 wRC+ and 25.9% K rate vs. left-handed pitching on the year. They also have just a 27th ranked 84 wRC+ over the past 30 days. Baltimore will have just 3 batters in their lineup with an xwOBA greater than .295 vs. lefties on the year. Ryan Yarbrough will have the benefit of a plus pitch-framer in Mike Zunino, as well as a very pitcher-friendly umpire in Vin Carapazza. Even though Yarbrough will come in after an opener, he still has a good shot at the ‘W’ with the Rays being -230 favorites in this matchup. The Orioles currently have a 4.10 implied line vs. the Rays in Camden Yards this afternoon.

Best of a Bad Bunch

Imagine a slate where we are essentially forced to rely on a Tampa Bay long reliever as one of the top pitching options. Well, that's what we have on Monday night as a dumpster fire of pitching options is pushing us to trust Ryan Yarbrough in a home matchup against the Baltimore Orioles. Baltimore's offense just lit up the Cleveland Indians pitching staff over the weekend but remain a favorable matchup for opposing pitchers - Baltimore owns a 25.7% strikeout rate and 87 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season. Yarbrough has been solid since being recalled from the Minors in late May and is Monday's top point-per-dollar pitching option.

Salary and Matchup Outweigh Questions

I am nervous about the pitch count on Yarbrough tonight, as he's been all over the map in that department. But this is a slate lacking for options worth paying for, and even if it's only a few innings, he can be acceptable enough to pay off this DK/FDRFT price tag. He is not a strikeout pitcher, but could get a little help there from the Orioles, but his main asset is an elite 3.8% walk rate, which combined with his home ballpark, should give him a chance for some easy innings against this Baltimore lineup. Like Allen, I see Yarbrough as better for cash games than tournaments.

Good Strikeout Upside

The biggest concern with Yarbrough is how deep he will pitch into the game. Over the last five games, he's thrown 42, 91, 42, 90, and 100 pitches. He's been really good against right-handed hitters this season and should face eight right-handed hitters in this lineup. Yarbrough has a .265 wOBA with a .125 ISO and an 85.1 average exit velocity against right-handed hitters. This lineup has a 24.4% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. I like this a little more on DraftKings/FantasyDraft, but with the limited options, I don't mind rolling the dice on FD.