Sandy Alcantara Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Five of the 14 pitchers available on Wednesday night’s slate exceed $10K on FanDuel, while Sandy Alcantara costs exactly that much on DraftKings and is the most expensive pitcher on either site. He has completed at least seven innings in nine consecutive starts, allowing more than two runs only his last time out with his second and third home run of this span allowed as well. The strikeout rate isn’t much above average (23%), but doesn’t have to be when you’re pitching this deep into games and every other aspect of your game is stellar (55 GB%, 15.7 IFFB%, 6.9 BB%, 86.9 mph EV, 5.0% Barrels/BBE). The 1.95 ERA is an obvious regression candidate (.244 BABIP, 7.2 HR/FB), but his worst estimator is still just a 3.55 SIERA. The matchup is not ideal (Cardinals 106 wRC+, 20.5 K% vs RHP) and the umpire is hitter friendly, but the park is favorable. This combination of factors makes Alcantara just the fourth best projected pitcher on the board tonight, but that should also suppress the ownership for a pitcher with one of the highest floors in the league. Tonight’s top projected arm might surprise some. To find out who and why, check out Wednesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

On a 10 game slate to start the week, the matchup in Philadelphia between Sandy Alcantara and Aaron Nola includes the only two pitchers exceeding $10K on both sites. In fact, Alcantara reaches a stunning $11.3K on FanDuel tonight, while being more than $1K less on DraftKings. A workhorse with a solidly above average strikeout rate is a pitcher everyone wants a piece of. Alcantara has a 24.1 K% and has completed seven innings while facing at least 25 batters in each of his last six starts, allowing a total of six runs (three earned) over that span. Add in a 13.2 SwStr% and also a 26.8 K% with a 14.8 SwStr% over the last month that suggests even more is possible and you have a bona fide Cy Young contender. All of Alcantara’s estimators have dropped below three over the last month. Contact neutral estimators (17.6 K-BB%) remain around three and a half for the season, while contact inclusive ones (53.8 GB%, 86.4 mph EV, 4.2% Barrels/BBE) drop below three. It’s certainly a park downgrade and the Flaming Phillies have a 104 wRC+ with a 22.7 K% and 14.0 HR/FB vs RHP. Alcantara is the second best projected pitcher on the board by PlateIQ tonight (projections are fluid and subject to change), though obviously a better projected value on DraftKings. To find out which pitcher projects better than Alcanatara and which high priced pitchers you may want to be conservative with, check out Monday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

One more games on a seven game FanDuel slate on Thursday night with just six on DraftKings. It gets confusing after that because FanDuel has two early games not on the DraftKings slate, but does not include the second game of the double header in New York that’s on the DraftKings slate. Either way, we lose Shohei Ohtani as a pitcher due to the rainout yesterday, which makes this a very difficult pitching slate.

Sandy Alcantara is the most expensive pitcher on the slate ($11K), but only available on FanDuel. He’s completed seven innings in four straight starts, eight in three with 14 strikeouts last time out, bringing his season rate up to 24%, while maintaining an elite contact profile (51.8 GB%, 86.4 mph EV, 4.7% Barrels/BBE). All estimators are well above his 2.00 ERA, as 25% of his runs have been unearned, but all are also well below four with a 3.67 xFIP being the worst of them. The Giants are a difficult opponent (109 wRC+, 21.6 K% vs RHP) in a favorable park. He is the top projected pitcher on the board and likely a pretty strong value too. For more on tonight's top arms, including the pitcher with the highest strikeout rate on the board, check out Thursday's PlateIQ Live Blog.

If you don’t like the abundance of top of the board arms or at least their weather forecasts, the middle of the board does offer some solutions tonight. Alex Cobb lasted just 10 batters in his return from the IL, not due to re-injury, but because the Nationals spanked him. While four of the five runs were unearned, he walked three without a strikeout, but has still struck out 14 of 50 batters faced this year with just two additional walks, a 73.3 GB% and 85.3 mph EV. Just as importantly, he’s continued to hold his spring training velocity spike. Expect him to be better going forward. He may not last much more than five innings, but costs less than $8.5K at home against the Cardinals (90 wRC+, 18.4 K% vs RHP). At his lower price point ($8.2K on FD), Cobb projects as a top five point per dollar value (PlateIQ), but may not last long enough for the Quality Start.

Luis Garcia surpassed 80 pitches for the first time this year in his last start, but he’s been efficient enough to have recorded at least two sixth inning outs three starts in a row now. The strikeouts are down a bit (22.4%), but he’s walked just five batters. With just a 30 GB%, five of eight barrels (13.3%) have left the yard. Estimators range widely from a 3.44 xERA to a 5.17 FIP with his ERA (4.15) sitting somewhere in between. At $7.4K, he projects as the second best value on DraftKings at home against the Tigers (83 wRC+, 24.2 K% vs RHP).

Sandy Alcantara has not exceeded six strikeouts (21%) in any of his five starts and the velocity is down a bit, but the 12.2 SwStr% is still slightly above his career rate. With nearly half his contact (48.8%) on the ground and an 85.7 mph EV, Alcantara continues the excellent contact management portion of his game, allowing just three barrels (3.7%), all of which have left the yard. The biggest flaw has been an 11.3 BB%. While a 3.16 xERA is in line with a 2.90 ERA, other estimators exceed four, but should improve as the gap between his walks and strikeouts widen. The Padres have a 102 wRC+ and 22.4 K% vs RHP, but $7.7K on DraftKings for the high workload floor you’re almost certain to get from Alcantara is too low. He’s the sixth best projected value on that site.

There are plenty of viable pitching options on tonight’s 11 game slate. The two most expensive arms have shot out of the gate throwing absolute fire, but there are also a number of mid-range arms that project fairly well and/or have quite a bit of upside in their matchups tonight. After 88 pitches in his third outing, Luis Severino should now be fully stretched out. The strikeouts haven’t entirely been there (25%, 12.7 SwStr%), but the pre-injury velocity is, along with exceptional contact management so far (54.1 GB%, 83.6 mph EV). There are some weather concerns in New York tonight, but you can’t argue with the matchup. The O’s have an 84 wRC+ and 24.9 K% vs RHP this year. Severino owns a top three overall projection on either site currently (PlateIQ), but is currently projected for four times the ownership on DK vs FD.

The underlying metrics looked quite a bit better than Max Fried’s results through two starts and he justified that optimism by two hitting the Dodgers over seven innings without a walk and eight strikeouts last time out. He’s walked just a single batter so far (22.5 K-BB%) with 52.9% of his contact on the ground, 25% of his fly balls as popups, an 84.6 mph EV and 3.8% Barrels/BBE. His SIERA (2.46) is more than a run below his 3.50 ERA. The Cubs have a 25.2 K% vs LHP early on, but have also been a fairly patient team (9.8 BB% vs LHP, 10.6% last seven days). Fried is currently projects for the second highest point total on either site, but is expected to be fairly popular around the $9K mark and probably has a higher floor than ceiling.

Sandy Alcantara is within $100 of $9.5K on either site. He has been his usual workhorse self, completing three full trips through the order in two straight starts, which gives him a fairly high floor. The strikeout rate (19.7%) is down through 19.1 innings, but the 12.3 SwStr% is healthy enough that we should expect more going forward. With 49% of his contact on the ground and 86 mph EV, Alcantara has allowed just two barrels (3.8%) and one home run so far. The Nationals have a 95 wRC+, but just a 21.6 K% vs RHP and Alcantara sits just inside the top seven overall in terms of projected point total with very low projected ownership, which makes him another great GPP play.

Tony Gonsolin is within $200 of $8K on either site. He’s struck out just eight of 53 batters with seven walks, which equates to a 1.9 K-BB%. The good news is that he’s had at least a 14.5 SwStr% in all three starts with exactly half his contact on the ground and an 86.8 mph EV. The issue remains the same as last year: walks. There may be some workload issues here, but the D’Backs have a 79 wRC+ and 25 K% vs RHP. He’s a longer shot GPP arm.

Considering Clayton Kershaw threw his last major league pitch prior to the All-Star break and his lone rehab outing lasted just three batters (three strikeouts), so expectations should be low here. That’s unfortunate, considering that he’s the only pitcher to reach $10K on both sites tonight, though the Arizona lineup he’ll likely face is sneaky low upside and contact prone anyway. The second most expensive pitcher on either site, above $10K on FanDuel, but $1K less on DraftKings, is the recently dominant Sandy Alcantara. He missed a start near the end of July, then threw seven shutout innings, striking out 10 Yankees on two hits in his first game back, but was hammered for 10 runs in Colorado next time out. Over six starts since then, he’s allowed more than two runs just once with a 33.7 K% (29.6 K-BB%), recording seventh inning outs each time. His velocity has even ticked up. While Alcantara’s ERA is below all of his estimators, none are more than half a run higher. He gets a significant park downgrade tonight, but has to be considered the top arm on the board by a mile in a matchup against Washington (95 wRC+ vs RHP). While five of eight batters in the home team projected lineup fall below 20.5%, the remaining three exceed 26.5%. If you’re looking for safe, you’re playing the wrong game, but Alcantara is about as close as you can get tonight in a red hot pitcher who works deep into games with great upside in a favorable spot.

The remaining two pitchers to exceed $9K on both sites are Adam Wainwright and Yu Darvish, two very different pitchers here. One thing we can count on in New York tonight is a lot of slow curves in a game where both pitcher’s combined age is nearly higher than either’s average velocity. The difference is that Wainwright’s been really good. He’s having his best season in over half a decade. It doesn’t hurt that a pitcher with an 8.3 SwStr% has one of the best defenses in baseball behind him, but Wainwright also gets a lot of called strikes with that curveball and a heavy workload generally allows him to accumulate enough strikeouts to be an effective daily fantasy arm, though he does have five or fewer strikeouts in four of his last five starts. He also just had a streak of nine straight quality starts snapped, but that’s only because he pitched into the ninth and allowed four runs. The last time he failed to complete six innings was prior to the break. His 2.99 ERA is well below estimators, partially due to that defense (.255 BABIP), but all are below four. It remains to be seen whether the carryover from a draining series last night will serve as extra juice for the Mets in facing a team they must over-come for a Wild Card spot or if this might be a let-down spot for them. They have just a 97 wRC+ vs RHP, but 102 at home and 117 over the last week. Four of eight projected exceed a 24 K%. With Wainwright, you sacrifice some upside, but he is one of the few pitchers you can say has a high floor, strictly due to workload expectations. That probably makes him just a marginal value here though.

Darvish threw just his second quality start since the start of July last time out when he struck out seven of 22 Angels through six innings with a single run and three hits. His velocity was up too with a week in between starts. His ERA had climbed above four in his previous outing, but now sits at 3.95, fairly well above estimators ranging from a 3.13 xERA to a 3.67 FIP behind a still very impressive 24.3 K-BB%. If we trust that his last start may have been the beginning of a return to form, only three batters in the projected San Francisco lineup strike out less than 22.5% of the time against RHP this year. A healthy Darvish firing on all cylinders would be underpriced for less than $9.5K, but is that what we’re getting here?

Interesting pitchers in potentially high upside spots include Charlie Morton (at Marlins), Keegan Akin (at Rays), Sandy Alcantara (vs Braves) and Tyler Mahle (vs Rockies). Morton is still feeling the effects of a 63.3 LOB%, which has kept his ERA above four (4.21) despite a 27.2 K% and just 6.1% Barrels/BBE. However, while most of his estimators are below four, his 4.15 xERA is most in line with actual results, though the reason is not immediately clear. He does have a 17.9 HR/FB, but nearly half his contact has been on the ground (49.1%) and his FIP is just 3.64. The Marlins have a 25.8 K% vs RHP and four projected batters exceed a 30 K% vs RHP since last year. Morton costs just $7.5K on DraftKings. Akin has struck out eight of 40 (10.6 SwStr%) with three walks and a home run in his two starts against the White Sox and Indians. A 19.6 K-BB% in 45.2 major league innings is fairly impressive, even if some of it was done in relief. More interesting is that he costs he’s the cheapest arm on DraftKings ($5K) and five of nine projected for the Rays exceed a 28 K% vs LHP since 2020.

While the strikeout rate has been dipping and is now down to a league average 23.3%, Sandy Alcantara still has a 13.4 SwStr% that creates optimism that he’s still capable of more. Combine this with a 53.7 GB% and just 3.7% Barrels/BBE and Statcast generates a 2.92 xERA, though all other estimators are between a quarter run to half run above his 3.30 ERA. While the Braves have a 102 wRC+ vs RHP, five of eight projected batters are above a 25 K% vs RHP since last season. Alcantara is the most expensive pitcher in this group, exactly $9K on either site.

After a three game stretch where Tyler Mahle struck out eight of 63 batters, he’s struck out 16 of his last 44 batters Since his first start (two home runs), he had one other start where he allowed three home runs and only two other home runs this season. That would be fairly impressive, considering his home park, but he’s pitched just four games there this season, including the two where he allowed multiple homers.. His 20.3 K-BB% is 23rd among qualified pitchers and every single one of his estimators is within one-third of a run of his 3.32 ERA. Mahle costs $8.5K or less. The Rockies have a 58 wRC+ on the road and 67 wRC+ vs RHP. Four of eight projected batters exceed a 25 K% vs RHP since last season. However, in addition to the ballpark, an atrocious defense could be a further Mahle drawback. He’s also completed six innings just three times this year, but has also completed seven innings twice in the last month. Any of these four would make solid SP2 complements on DraftKings with Alcantara being most capable of standing on his own with the heaviest workload and Quality Start potential.

Aside from the bullpen game situation for the Dodgers, it’s difficult to advocate fully fading any pitcher when there are only seven available, especially when you need to utilize 28.6% of them on DraftKings. That said, you can make a strong argument for going significantly underweight on Nick Pivetta, the highest priced pitcher on the board tonight. We start with a park that’s been very hitter friendly in the nearly two months the Blue Jays have called it home. The sample size isn’t large, but the boost has been significant, according to Baseball Savant Park Factors. Then, there are Pivetta’s own issues. Without a single walk in his last start, his walk rate still stands at 12.8% for the season. His 24.4 K% is fine, but he has just a 10.1 SwStr% (9.5% over the last month). He has just a 37.1 GB% and 89.8 mph EV, but has allowed just six Barrels (5.6%) with a 21.9 LD%. That feels a bit fluky too. Lastly, the Toronto offense has a 137 wRC+ with a 17.9 HR/FB at home and just a 22.4 K% vs RHP this year.

If we’re not on Pivetta, what kind of pitcher do we want to take a chance on? Unfortunately, the only negative run environment on the slate is in Los Angeles and rostering Merrill Kelly against the Dodgers is highly risky without a lot of potential reward. Philadelphia is oddly the best pitching spot on the slate tonight. His worst start of the season drove Sandy Alcantara’s ERA up from 2.72 to 4.06 in just 13 Dodgers faced last time out. However, six of his nine efforts have been quality starts and consider that his 24.4 K% comes with a 14.4 SwStr% that suggests much more potential and with nearly half his contact on the ground (48.2%), he’s actually allowed two more HRs (six) than Barrels (four). All estimators are still at least a bit below four with his xERA still below three. An increase in strikeouts would drive them down even further. The Phillies have just a 91 wRC+ and 26 K% vs RHP, while they’re also projected to be without J.T. Realmuto again tonight. Alcantara is the second highest priced pitcher on the slate, but is probably tonight’s top overall arm. Expect players to treat him that way though.

Vince Velasquez is the kind of high upside pitcher (26.4 K%, 11.6 SwStr%) we want to take shots with on a slate like this against an offense with an 84 wRC+ and 19.6 K-BB% against RHP, but again, everybody understands this. He’ll likely be highly owned despite a 93.2 mph EV, seven HRs and 15.3% Barrels/BBE because he costs less than $8K in this matchup with just six other starting pitchers available. The cheapest pitcher on the board on DraftKings is Wil Crowe. A 2.5 mph velocity spike from last season has only pushed his strikeout rate up to 19.1% (8.4 SwStr%), but the Braves have just a 101 wRC+ and 24.1 K% vs RHP and he doesn’t really have to do too much to justify his $6.2K price tag today when we’re not expecting any pitcher to really go off. The Braves also have a 31.2 K% over the last week that’s higher than any team playing today. Crowe is not a pitcher we’d normally have any interest in in this spot, but the situation may dictate we go for high priced bats and perhaps go overweight on low priced pitching on a small slate.

With several Cy Young candidates on the slate tonight, most players are probably paying up for pitching tonight and probably rightly so, but let’s draw some attention to a more fringe Cy Young candidate this year, who can be found for $8K or less on either site. Sandy Alcantara is slowly becoming a true Ace. He’s struck out 28 of 100 batters with a 15.4 SwStr%, increasing his strikeout rate substantially for a second consecutive year. Only deGrom and Glasnow exceed that latter number today. He’s allowed a single Barrel and HR in 62 BBEs as well. Most non-FIP estimators are near agreement with his actual 3.28 ERA, though folding in his contact profile actually drops him to a 1.81 xERA. His velocity is up over half a mile per hour as well. Everything seems to be falling in line for Alcantara, who also only ranks behind Yusei Kikuchi tonight in terms of average batters faced per start this year (25). That’s almost three full trips through the lineup on average. The best news, as mentioned, is the price tag, where he sits in the middle of the board on either site. The matchup is fine against a San Francisco lineup that’s far more potent against LHP than RHP (85 wRC+ this year with four of eight in the projected lineup below a .330 wOBA and .170 ISO vs RHP since 2019). If you’re curious about ownership projections, early numbers suggest he may be well regarded, but not prohibitively so on such a large slate.

Sandy Alcantara allowed just two hits (no Barrels) and struck out seven of 23 batters in his first start. After increasing his strikeout rate to league average last year (22.7%) and increased it even further this spring, Sandy Alcantara allowed just two hits (no Barrels) and struck out seven of 23 batters in his first start. In his second, he whiffed 10 of 25 Cardinals. He has yet to allow a Barrel among 26 batted balls with half his contact on the ground. His velocity (97.4) is up a mile per hour from last year and nearly a quarter of his pitches have been changeups (10% last year). While the Braves were one of the top offenses against RHP in baseball last year, they have just a 78 wRC+ against them this year. Five batters in tonight’s projected lineup for Atlanta are below a 50 wRC+ overall this year and while LHBs have a 50 wOBA point edge on Alcantara since 2019, the Braves will likely only have two of them in the lineup. That said, this is still a very dangerous lineup with none of the players with more than 30 PAs against RHP since 2019 below a .170 ISO against them over that span. If you don’t want to pay more than $9.5K for your pitcher tonight ($8.5K on DraftKings), Alcantara is a reasonable and potentially lower owned alternative.