Spencer Strider Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

None of the top three projected values on FanDuel cost more than $9K, while the fourth is less than $10K as well. While we’re dealing with a lot of volatility here, all are reasonable GPP players even on single pitcher sites tonight. Spencer Strider has “only” struck out 10 of his last 40 batters in Washington and Philadelphia. Perhaps as divisional opponents begin to see him multiple times, the strikeout rate will drop, but he’s still sustaining a 36.4 K% (27.6 K-BB%) as a starter with just 5.7% Barrels/BBE, while four of his last six have been Quality Starts. On the season, his 2.91 ERA is above estimators ranging from a 2.17 FIP to a 2.75 xERA. The Phillies (98 wRC+, 22.5 K%, 13.8 HR/FB vs RHP this year) get him again here, so perhaps there should be a bit of caution, but Strider is still too cheap at $8.3K on either site, projecting as a top two value on both.

Lucas Giiolito has allowed just three home runs and four barrels over his last 33 innings, but now has struck out just six of his last 42 batters with four walks. While his 5.14 ERA is a bit fluky (.349 BABIP, 16.1 HR/FB), only his contact neutral estimators are below four (17.2 K-BB%) with 9.7% Barrels/BBE pushing his xERA up to 4.53. And now it looks like in trying to solve one problem, he may have created another. The Royals (91 wRC+, 21.9 K%, 8.2 HR/FB vs RHP) have a team 62 wRC+ over the last week. They’ve gotten Sal Perez back this week, but lost Andrew Benintendi, while Bobby Witt Jr. has been in and out of the lineup. Costing less than $8K now (less than $7K on DK), Giolito projects for similar value to Strider, atop the board.

If Noah Syndergaard isn’t traded (and it sounds like he probably will be, though we’ll mention him here briefly anyway), he’ll be starting this game for the Angels. He’s registered a 25.8 K% over his last four starts, pushing his season rate up to 18.9% (12.4 K-BB%), seemingly sacrificing some ground balls (now 44.9%) for strikeouts, though he’s also now allowed 10.1% Barrels/BBE over his last 12 starts. He has just one Quality Start in his last six, while season estimators are above, but within half a run of his 3.83 ERA. Syndergaard is the third best projected value on either site against the A’s (78 wRC+, 24 K% vs RHP).

Cristian Javier has struck out just nine of his last 42 batters after double digit strikeouts in three of his previous four starts. A 33.6 K% is both extremely impressive and volatile. Only 34.8% of his contact has been at a 95 mph EV or above, but his walk rate is nearing double digits (9.7%). This keeps the majority of his estimators above three with the exception of a 2.79 xERA. He’s only completed six innings four times in 15 starts though. His matchup is complicated. The Red Sox (97 wRC+, 21.7 K% vs RHP) picked up Tommy Pham, but lost Christian Vazquez, while J.D. Martinez is on the block as well and Rafael Devers may be back tonight. Costing $8.7K on DraftKings, but exactly $1K more on FanDuel, Javier actually projects as the higher value on the latter site, though is a top five projected value on either.

Tyler Anderson has five straight Quality Starts with more than one run allowed in just one of them. He’s striking out batters at nearly an average rate this year (20.9%), but with an elite walk rate (4.4%) and contact management (85.4 mph EV, 5.0% Barrels/BBE, 29.5% 95+ mph EV). This generates a 2.99 xERA, which aligns most closely to his 2.61 ERA with additional estimators running as high as a 4.06 DRA. A 79.1 LOB% and 6.8 HR/FB are probably due for some regression. He doesn’t have a ton of upside, but should pitch well against the Giants here (114 wRC+, 23.5 K%) with a price tag within $100 of $9K on either site. Anderson’s changeup (32.5%, -2 RV/100) and cutter (20.8%, -1.4 RV/100) have been his two biggest weapons, while the Giants are a bottom third of the league offense against both pitches.

That’s the good news about the middle of the board tonight. The bad news is that viable lower priced are hard to come by (unless you’re counting Giolito in that group). Kutter Crawford (19.4 K-BB% as a starter) and Alex Wood (17.6 K-BB%) have been effective, but face the Astros and Dodgers, respectively. Adam Wainwright probably is more likely to pitch seven innings than not against the Cubs (99 wRC+, 23.1 K% vs RHP, 52 wRC+ last seven days) for $7.5K on DK and that could give him a reasonable strikeout total even with a rate below 20% on the year. Cole Irvin gets the Angels (82 wRC+, 24.5 K% vs LHP) has five straight Quality Starts with a total of eight runs allowed over 34 innings, but with just a 17.9 K% and .186 BABIP. A 2.4 BB% is the real star of this run, as is a 4.8 BB% the star of his season, though having just 12 of his 33 barrels (9.8%) leaving the yard has helped too. All non-FIP estimators are more than a run and a quarter above his .304 ERA.

Spencer Strider has a board high 37.9 K% (37.4% since entering the rotation) and is coming off his first truly poor outing, striking out just four of 18 Nationals, while allowing five runs. He’s generally excelled at contact management too with just an 87.2 mph EV and 5.6% Barrels/BBE as a starter as well. All of Strider’s estimators are more than a quarter run below his 3.03 ERA on the season. The Phillies have just a 98 wRC+ and 22.8 K%, but also a 14.1 HR/FB and conditions are expected to be significantly hitter friendly in Philly tonight (though not as obnoxious as last night). Perhaps that’s why Strider’s cost is still within $300 of $9K on either site. He’s “merely” the third best projected arm on the slate, but top projected value on either site.

Ironically, a lot of the top projected values cost between $8K and $9.5K on FanDuel tonight and may be viable even on a single pitcher site. (Heads up for those playing in the Single Entry Series this week.) Mike Clevinger, George Kirby and Jose Berrios are all top seven projected FD values. Clevinger has done a decent enough job, striking out nearly a quarter of the batters he’s faced (24.7%) with a 17.0 K-BB%, while limiting the hard contact (87.4 mph EV, 6.2% Barrels/BBE). He’s finally starting to pitch deeper into games, completing six innings in three of his last four too with Coors being the only exception. His 3.50 ERA is within half a run of all estimators, though most are slightly above. Clevinger’s four-seamer has been especially successful (35.5%, -2.4 RV/100, .250 wOBA, 19.9 Whiff%), while the Tigers are the worst offense in baseball against fastballs (-0.55 wFB/C). They’re also very awful against RHP overall (67 wRC+, 24.1 K%, 7.2 HR/FB).

Kirby has struck out as many as nine twice this season, but still has just an average 22.6 K% with the strength of his profile and elite walk rate (3.3%) that’s allowed him to accumulate five Quality Starts in over his last eight outings. With a .312 BABIP and 16.0 HR/FB, estimators are a bit lower than his 3.78 ERA. His best pitch has been a four-seamer that he throws nearly half the time (47.7%) with a 27.7 Whiff% and .312 wOBA (.282 xwOBA) that he should utilize quite frequently against the Rangers (93 wRC+, 23.4 K% vs RHP), who have been a bottom five offense against fastballs (-0.36 wFB/C). Add in a great home park and Kirby is a top seven projected value on either site.

Berrios has struck out 20 of his last 50 batters to boost his season strikeout rate to a league average 21.1%, but has allowed 20 home runs on 35 barrels (11.0%) this season, producing a 5.28 xERA that most closely aligns with his actual ERA (5.22), while additional estimators run around a run lower. Despite the sudden spike in strikeouts, a 90.4 Z-Contact% with just a 9.3 SwStr% are problematic. He has somehow registered a Quality Start in 10 of his 19 efforts this year, but has also allowed more than three runs six times. His four-seamer has been atrocious (2.8 RV/100, .474 wOBA). While Berrios is always a roller coaster ride and the Cardinals (104 wRC+, 20.7 K% vs RHP) have been good against fastball (0.33 wFB/C), they’ll be missing their two biggest bats (Goldy & Arenado).

Berrios is the least expensive of the top eight projected values on DraftKings tonight ($7.9K), meaning the only thing this board is truly lacking may be cheap SP2 options. While Jose Suarez has been an adequate bat misser (22.2 K%, 11.9 SwStr%), both his walk (10.8%) and barrel (11.9%) rates are in double digits, resulting in a 5.60 ERA and 5.26 FIP, but also some estimators in the four and a half range. He’s only completed six innings once this year and it wasn’t even in one of his nine starts. He’s only even completed five innings in one of them. The Royals have a 105 wRC+ with just an 18 K% vs LHP though. Since returning to the rotation four starts back, Spenser Watkins has allowed just four runs (three earned) over 22.2 innings, striking out 17 of 88 batters (11.6 SwStr%) with just five walks and four barrels (6.1%). The key change has been featuring his cutter more, which Statcast suggests is an average pitch (0.2 RV/100) with a 27.3 Whiff% and .334 wOBA, but .308 xwOBA. This stretch features his first two Quality Starts of the season with non-FIP estimators in the lower fours instead of fives, where his season rates still lie. His main problem may not be the Rays (100 wRC+, 24.7 K% vs RHP), but a hitter friendly umpire.

Spencer Strider is currently a top three projected point per dollar value on either site and probably the only one of the top six projected FanDuel values for less than $10K that you’d consider using on a single pitcher site because he’s also essentially in a three way tie for the third best projected arm on the board overall. The major concern about shifting Strider into the rotation was a lack of quality secondary pitches. Apparently the one is doing just fine, as he’s registered a 28.5 K-BB% through seven starts, including tying a career high 11 strikeouts last time out and his first two Quality Starts in his last two outings. With those peripherals, the contact profile doesn’t have to be anything special. A 2.90 xERA is his only estimator above a 2.87 ERA. This projection is all him though because it’s neither a strong matchup (Cardinals 105 wRC+, 20.4 K% vs RHP) nor pitcher friendly park in Atlanta with the weather forecast suggesting it may be even more hitter friendly than usual. However, Strider is much better than an $8.5K pitcher.

Most of the remaining top value projections are guys you’d consider using in an SP2 spot on DraftKings in order to add more offense to your lineups. The top projected value on DraftKings may not even have been confirmed yet and is only up there due to his price tag. Casey Lawrence threw an emergency 5.2 innings in relief of Kevin Gausman last time out and after striking out none of his first 15 batters this year, has struck out nine of his last 40 over two long relief appearances. The 34 year-old will get just his third major league start and first since 2017 without much in the way of expectations because he hasn’t pitched in the major leagues since 2018 outside the handful of innings mentioned above. He’s $4K in a favorable park. That’s it. He doesn’t even have a particularly friendly matchup (Mariners 105 wRC+, 22.4 K% vs RHP) and Ty France is projected to be back tonight.

Trevor Williams has been a solid addition to the Mets’ bullpen (2.62 FIP over 18 innings), but not so much to the rotation (6.27 FIP over 27.2 innings). He’s struck out five of 34 batters over his last two starts with the same number of home runs allowed on seven barrels (28%). Regardless, he costs $6.7K in a great park against a predominantly right-handed lineup (RHBs .317 wOBA against Williams since 2021), though the Marlins have been pretty good against RHP (108 wRC+, 22.3 K%). Williams projects as the second best DraftKings value below $8.5K tonight.

Baltimore’s allowance to let Jordan Lyles eat up a lot of innings has resulted in the occasional Quality Start with some assistance from the unearned run column. Though, in truth, he hasn’t been horrible (11.9 K-BB%) if all you’re looking for is someone to fill a spot and even the 10.1% Barrels/BBE haven’t hurt him as badly with the dimensions changing in Baltimore this year (just 12 of 31 barrels have left the yard). All estimators are within half a run of his 4.70 ERA. What we like about him today, besides the $6.9K price tag, is the upside in the matchup (Angels split high 26.9 K% vs RHP with a 99 wRC+).

Although not projecting particularly well, there may be something in the similarly cheap pitcher opposing Lyles that projections aren’t catching onto yet. After striking out just one of his last 28 batters to end his first go around with the Angels in early June, he returned to strike out six of 18 White Sox last time out. We’re still only talking about 20.2 innings and 89 batters faced, but Chase Silseth has produced a league average 10.6 SwStr% with a below average 19.1 K% and decent control (7.9 BB%). Most of his problems occur in the contact profile or more specifically a 91.6 mph EV. All five of his barrels (7.3%) have left the yard (27.8 HR/FB) and that should regress, though both his FIP and xERA are above five, thanks to 94.1% of his contact categorized as hart hit (95+ mph EV). The one thing he has been doing extremely well is fooling batters (24.7 Z-O-Swing%), which should began to pay off at some point. Contact neutral estimators hover around four with a chance for something better with a few more strikeouts. The Orioles are certainly a beatable offense (91 wRC+, 23.4 K% vs RHP).

The top projected point per dollar value on either site by PlateIQ tonight (projections are fluid and subject to change) costs less than $8K. Spencer Strider has struck out 20 of 60 batters over three starts with exactly half his contact on the ground and an 85.2 mph EV. The lone issue, as it was out of the bullpen, is control (eight walks). He was up to 92 pitches last time out with just one walk, but that still couldn’t get him through six innings. Even with the double digit walk rate, Strider still owns a 24.5 K-BB% on the season without an estimator that reaches three. The Nationals have a 98 wRC+ with just a 20 K% vs RHP, but that’s baked into the price. You’re getting 30% strikeout upside for less than $8K, which makes Strider tonight’s top projected value and probably the only arm you want to consider dipping below $8.5K on FanDuel for.

There are, however, a couple of sub-$7K SP2 options on DraftKings tonight. Josh Winckowski struck out four of 18 Orioles in his only start and major league action of the season and his career about two and a half weeks ago. He also walked three with one of his four fly balls and two barrels (18.2%) leaving the yard, while averaging a 97.4 mph EV. The 23 year-old is a marginally regarded prospect (40 FV Fangraphs), who has impressed with a 20+ K-BB% over 54.2 AAA innings since last season and has a great matchup (A’s 74 wRC+, 23.9 K% vs RHP) in a difficult park, but Weather Edge currently suggests conditions could be slightly more pitcher friendly than usual.

Roansy Contreras has struck out 23 of 86 batters over four starts, but has yet to complete six innings, even though the Pirates have allowed him to throw as many as 98 pitches. The contact profile is a bit undesirable with just a 37.5 GB% and 92 mph EV as a starter, resulting in seven barrels (12.3%) and a higher BABIP .327 with just two of them leaving the yard. It’s hard to find many complaints in a young prospect with a 3.73 xERA and no other estimator above three and a half because the strikeouts and walks are a lot stickier than the contact. If you’re rostering Contreras, it’s more on his merit than the matchup. The Cardinals own a 105 wRC+ and 19.3 K% vs RHP, while conditions are projected to be sweltering in St Louis. However, Contreras is $6.9K and may not be this cheap for much longer.

Aside from a couple of top arms, who are on top of their game in favorable matchups, players may want to consider dropping down below $9K for additional or alternate pitching choices. By current PlateIQ projections (which are fluid and subject to change) the top four point per dollar values on FanDuel all cost between $7K and $9K. Spencer Strider’s ($7.2K FD) 36.8 K%. 77.8 Z-Contact% and 15.2 SwStr% as a multi-inning reliever basically forced his way into the rotation, though that’s not to say there aren’t flaws. He’s struck out 12 of 38 over two starts, but also walked six. He’s been a bit fortunate that just one of six barrels this season (9.1%) have left the yard, but even with a 13.5 BB%, the strikeout rate is so strong that a 3.20 xERA is still his only estimator above three. Now the question becomes how much of that strikeout rate he can retain as he continues to stretch out. He did throw a season high 87 pitches last time out, but with the control issues, that only allowed him to get through four innings and 87 batters. Atlanta is a dangerous park, but we love the upside in the matchup tonight (Pirates 85 wRC+, 24.9 K% vs RHP). We have to be concerned about whether the workload will get him to a Quality Start tonight, but Strider is also the second best projected value on DraftKings for $7K, where he can easily slot into your SP2.

Nearly 40% (20 of 49) of Jose Berrios’s ($8.4K FD) strikeouts have come in two of his last three starts, but it’s difficult to say he’s getting rolling when he struck out just one Angel with a 5.4 SwStr% in between. He’s also allowed multiple barrels in five straight starts and 24 overall (13.3%) and has just two starts where he’s averaged below an 89.5 mph EV. Maybe he can still dial it up and deserves a spot in a few of your hundred GPP lineups, but there’s been little in the way of positive consistency in his season with a 4.24 SIERA being his lowest estimator. Again, what we love is the upside in the matchup in Detroit (board low 69 wRC+ and 25 K% vs RHP). Berrios costs nearly $1K less on DK, where he projects as a top value as well.

Tylor Megill makes his return from the IL after striking out five of 14 AA batters in his lone rehab start. He’ll probably be limited a bit more than usual, but the Mets would rather have those innings at the major league level. We probably should pay less attention to his last start, in which Washington lit him up for eight runs over 1.1 innings with just a single strikeout nearly a month ago. He still has a 19.4 K-BB% with all estimators more than half a run below his 4.41 ERA (66.9 LOB%). We’re concerned about the workload, as he only costs below $9K on FD and just barely, but whether Mike Trout returns or not, there should be a ton of strikeouts in the Angels’ lineup for him (108 wRC+, 25.4 K% vs RHP).

Over his last two starts, Aaron Ashby has struck out 21 of 49 Padres and Cubs (18.1 SwStr%) with just two walks, a 60 GB% and 87.7 mph EV. On the season, he’s allowed as many barrels (four) as home runs with a 30.5 K%, but also an 11.2 BB%, so the improved control is actually new and exciting and should allow him to remain in games longer if it’s sustained. A 3.16 FIP (16.7 HR/FB) is the only estimator above his 3.13 ERA. While the Nationals have just a 90 wRC+ vs LHP, it comes with a board low 17.3 K% against them. Ashby costs $8.6K on either site, which still may be too low.

Triston McKenzie has struck out four or fewer in three of his last four starts, but completed seven innings in all four. This comes with a 3.45 ERA, but also a 100% strand rate and .070 BABIP. However, his 12.3 SwStr% over this span is actually a full point about his season rate (11.1%), so expect the strikeout rate to pop back up. He just snapped a run of five straight Quality Starts and owns a respectable, if not overwhelming, 15.0 K-BB% on the year, though the contact profile may still be a problem (28 GB%, 91.2 mph EV, 9.9% Barrels/BBE). Estimators are all well above his 3.10 ERA on the season with only a 3.92 xERA below four. He too, has a tremendous matchup with the A’s (72 wRC+, 24.4 K% vs RHP).

Costing less than $7K on DraftKings, keep an eye on Roansy Contreras in Atlanta tonight. He is a well-regarded pitching prospect (50 FV Fangraphs), who is living up to the hype so far. He’s struck out 26 of 95 major league batters this year (13.2 SwStr%), though six of 60 batted balls have been barreled. The interesting news is that the Pirates allowed him to throw 98 pitches last time out and may be ready to loosen the reigns a bit as his early estimators run a tight and impressive range between 3.13 DRA and a 3.30 xFIP. Atlanta is a park downgrade, but a predominantly right-handed lineup has struggled against RHP with a 94 wRC+ and board high 26.2 K%.