Spencer Turnbull Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

On a 14 game slate, there’s no shortage of high upside spots. It’s just a question of which pitchers are usable in these spots. We start with Blake Snell, hosting the Rockies, who have a team 24.4 K% vs LHP this year with four of eight projected batters with at least a 23.5 K% vs LHP since 2019. Snell has a 31 K% (12.7 SwStr%), 52.4 GB% and 86.9 mph EV, but the 15.2 BB%. He has thrown as many as 95 pitches twice, but has only recorded a sixth inning out in one start. There may not be a pitcher in the league who confuses estimators more. You rarely see as large a gap between a SIERA (4.13) and xFIP (3.51) as Snell’s and those aren’t even his highest or lowest estimators. Snell will need extreme efficiency to get you a Quality Start tonight and costs at least $8K on either site.

The Phillies have a 26.6 K% vs RHP this year, but the Marlins haven’t confirmed a starter. If it’s Cody Poteet, he struck out six of 19 Diamondbacks with an impressive 16.9 SwStr% and no walks in his major league debut. The nearly 27 year-old rookie and has never even reached a 20 K% at any level above A ball previous to this year, but has struck out 10 of 22 AAA batters faced this year as well. Of course, the minimum price tag might make him one of the top values on the slate with even marginal competency. John Gant gets the Pirates with half the projected lineup above a 24.5 K% vs RHP since 2019, but he has a ridiculous 17.4 BB% this year. Justin Dunn (3.1 K-BB%) faces a projected Detroit lineup that only has two batters at the bottom above a 25 K% vs RHP since 2019. Matt Harvey (16.6 K%, 7.1 SwStr%) gets the strikeout prone, but dangerous Rays (105 wRC+ vs RHP) in Baltimore. Zach Plesac (17.5 K%, but 11.9 SwStr%) gets the Angels and the projected lineup without Mike Trout contains six batters above a 26 K% vs RHP since 2019.

Spencer Turnbull may be the most useful pitcher here though. He costs less than $7.5K on either site for his matchup in Seattle and six of nine projected batters exceed a 25 K% vs RHP since 2019. Outside of starts at Fenway and Yankee Stadium, Turnbull has struck out 18 of 69 against the Royals and Pirates with two Quality Starts. He combines the matchup upside with a 51.3 GB% and 5.4 BB% this year and the 3.91 ERA matches fairly well with estimators through five starts.

Turnbull has quietly put up a serviceable season in Detroit, posting a 4.59 ERA / 4.06 FIP with a 12.8% K-BB, 1.46 WHIP, 48.1% GB rate and 10.6% SwStr. He’s arguably shown a bit of improvement over the past 30 days despite an inflated 6.85 ERA with a 2.86 FIP / 3.97 xFIP and 17.1% K-BB. Turnbull will face a White Sox lineup that has just an 88 wRC+ and a massive 26.3% K rate vs. RHP on the year, giving him some nice upside. The White Sox lineup today will have just 4 batters who have an xwOBA above .325 on the year. With a decent amount of options pitching options on this slate, Turnbull is definitely more of a GPP option than cash, and does project to see decently low ownership. He’ll have an affordable price of $7400 on Draftkings and an even cheaper $6400 price tag on Fanduel this afternoon. Turnbull will also have the benefit of a pitcher friendly umpire in Gabe Morales calling balls and strikes.

Cleveland is far from a negative run environment and it would probably take an optimistic point of view to call Spencer Turnbull an average pitcher (11.9 K-BB%, 4.77 ERA, 4.81 SIERA, 5.38 DRA, .334 xwOBA). In fact, he’s allowed at least four runs in five straight starts, a period over which he has a 10.71 ERA. However, he has a 12.1 SwStr% over this stretch of starts which includes the Astros, Indians, Twins, Athletics, and Yankees, basically the AL post-season lineup. Tonight, he’ll face a Cleveland lineup lacking Jose Ramirez, Jason Kipnis, and Franmil Reyes. It’s still a fairly respectable top half, but it gets ugly pretty quickly after Yasiel Puig in the cleanup spot. The thing that really sticks out here though is that Turnbull is the lowest priced pitcher on DraftKings who is not serving as an opener tonight. At $4.5K, Turnbull can get you Gerrit Cole for a combined sum of $17.3K and Cole (51.6 K% last 30 days) is the top overall pitcher on the slate for his matchup with the Rangers at home by a pretty massive margin.

Spencer Turnbull has seen his velocity and strikeout rate slowly, but steadily drop throughout the season. He’s struck out just 10 of his last 67 batters, allowing 15 runs over 12.2 innings (three HRs) over that span. He has faced the Twins, Indians and Astros over that span, but also gets another tough assignment tonight in Oakland. Over the last week, the A’s have a team 124 wRC+, 4.6 K-BB% and 28.5 Hard-Soft%. Turnbull has allowed some of the hardest contact on the board himself this season (40.9% 95+ mph EV). The A’s have a 5.67 implied run line that’s currently second best on the board. Turnbull has a sizeable platoon split (LHBs .349 wOBA), while he’s handled RHBs well (.299) with xwOBAs just six points higher in each instance. That strongly suggests Matt Olson (152 wRC+, .276 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is a high value bat tonight, but also consider Seth Brown, who has a .353 wRC+ over the last week and costs less than $3.5K on either site. Marcus Semien (128 wRC+, .226 ISO), Matt Chapman (124 wRC+, .238 ISO) and Mark Canha (162 wRC+, .265 ISO) have all hit same-handed pitching extremely well. Weather Edge (premium subscription required) also suggests conditions to give the offenses a small bump, which may be enough to turn Oakland into a fairly neutral run environment tonight.

Spencer Turnbull has a 6.3 K-BB% over his last seven starts. A 50.5 GB% and 9.1 HR/FB are the only things keeping his ERA below five over that span and the latter can certainly be argued against with a 29.8 Hard-Soft% over that span. Turnbull now owns an 88.3 mph aEV for the season. The high ground ball rate will help him, but with a higher rate of contact, and harder contact at that, it’s not going to save him. After a terrible start, the Indians are now up to a 94 wRC+ with a 13.2 K-BB% and 14.4 HR/FB vs RHP, essentially league average. Turnbull is now exhibiting a substantial platoon issue as well. LHBs own a .344 wOBA and .357 xwOBA against him in his short career now. The Indians will attack him with seven lefties tonight. Their 5.92 implied run line is fourth best on the board with all three offenses above them having potential weather concerns tonight. Francisco Lindor (106 wRC+, .205 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Carlos Santana (129 wRC+, .233 ISO), and Jason Kipnis (114 wRC+, .192 ISO) lead the charge in the top half of the lineup. Jose Ramirez (90 wRC+, .179 ISO) is actually one of the hottest Cleveland bats since the break (156 wRC+, 52.2 Hard%).