Tarik Skubal Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Game note: Twins vs. Tigers is expected to start at 7:45pm ET Friday.

Cubs-Tigers expected to start at 1:45 ET Wednesday

The most interesting mid-range pitching option on the board is actually just below the top arms in terms of both cost and projections. The Marlins have to be thrilled with what they’ve gotten out of Jesus Luzardo so far. The walk rate is still a bit high (11%), but with a 34.1 K% (14.0 SwStr%). It’s been a bit inconsistent with single game swinging strike rates ranging from 5.5% to 21.8%, but hopefully he can round it all out eventually. The important part is that the upside is still there and is further enforced by a nearly mile and half per hour velocity spike, though that’s been inconsistent too. A 3.57 DRA is the only estimator above his 3.10 ERA. He’s in a pitcher’s park in San Diego, but the Padres have a 119 wRC+ vs LHP and the entire top half of the projected lineup is below a 20 K% vs LHP since last season.

Projections also favor Jose Urquidy in a home matchup against the Tigers (82 wRC+, 25 K% vs RHP). Six strikeouts last time out were one less than his total over his first three starts. That pushed his strikeout rate up to merely 15.1% and with just 29.6% of his contact on the ground and a 92.6 mph EV, Statcast spits out an ugly 7.13 xERA. The good news is that it’s his only estimator above a 5.95 ERA, though none dip below four and a half. He’s at least helped himself out slightly with a 3.5 BB%. This is purely a matchup and price play. Urquidy is less than $8K on either site.

On the other side of the field will be Tarik Skubal, perhaps the most interesting low priced pitcher on the board, though that only applies to DraftKings, where’s nearly $3K less than on FanDuel. A S22.7 K% is a three point drop from last season, but a four point drop in his walk rate has resulted in an increase to his K-BB (19.3%). The biggest problem last year was the 58 barrels (13.9%). To combat that, he’s nearly doubled his sinker percentage to almost a quarter of his pitches this year with a big jump in his ground ball rate (50.8%) through four starts. He’s allowed just four barrels (6.2%), all of which have stayed in the yard. However, he still has just one estimator (3.40 DRA) above his 3.05 ERA. Trading off a few strikeouts to avoid barrels may not be the sexiest fantasy move a pitcher can make, but it’s had a positive overall result for Skubal so far. Of course, the problem here is that the Astros don’t strike out a lot. Six of nine in the projected lineup are well below a 20 K% vs LHP since last season. However, Skubal won’t need that many to pay off $6.5K. Current projections see Skubal as the fifth best point per dollar value on DK and second best (behind Chris Archer) for less than $8K.

The middle of the board on an 11 game slate features some viable, if not extremely exciting arms. German Marquez allowed the Dodgers just a single run, striking out five of 24 at Coors in his first start of the season. A 15.0 K-BB%, 51.8 GB% and 5.8% Barrels/BBE since the start of last year have produced estimators that are all at least one quarter of a run below his 4.28 ERA over that span. He’s cheap enough to be usable with four in the projected Cubs lineup above a 28 K% vs RHP since 2021. Ownership projections are below five percent currently.

A knee issue limited Jordan Montgomery to just 58 pitches and 17 batters in his first start, but he’s been proclaimed fit to go in Baltimore. Possibly one of the more under-rated pitchers in the game, Montgomery has produced a 16.8 K-BB% since last year with a somewhat average contact profile, making him an above average pitcher with a 3.92 ERA that’s within a quarter run of all estimators. While the Orioles sent the left field wall back and up partially due to these Yankees, Montgomery should benefit greatly from this as well. Workload could be an issue here though, as he does cost more than $8K.

Tarik Skubal was a strikeout monster in the minors, but struggled both in that area and with home runs upon reaching the majors. He did seem to figure out around mid-season last year, but also seemed to taper off again near the end, which is understandable for a young pitcher. He struggled through a tough assignment first time out this year, striking out just three of 20 White Sox with a 31.3 GB% and two barrels allowed, though neither left he park. Skubal has estimators ranging from a 3.92 SIERA to a 5.51 xERA since the start of last season. The interesting thing here though, is that Kansas City is already a power suppressing park and while Skubal will be facing a predominantly RH lineup, the wind is blowing in from LF today and should suppress RH power even more. This could be a major boost for Skubal. The projected Kansas City lineup includes three players above a 27 K% vs LHP since last season.

You’re Hail Mary secondary lottery tickets on DK include the following. Kyle Wright ($6.7K) impressively struck out six of 21 Reds with a 15.8 SwStr% first time out without allowing a barrel (14 batted balls). Last year, six of the 20 batted balls against him were barrels. He gets a park upgrade in San Diego, though the Padres smashed Charlie Morton last night. Reid Detmers is the top prospect for the Angels according to Fangraphs (50 Future Value), but as more of a plug and play major league ready back end starter than a higher upside type. He was impressive in 54 AA innings last year (43.1 K%), but has just a 7.7 K-BB% over 24.2 major league innings with 10 barrels allowed (12.5%). He costs $6.3K in Texas, another team that blew up on a great pitcher last night. Zach Plesac’s ($6.5K) posted one season of a 27.7 K%, but no others above 18.5%. Since the start of last season, all estimators are above his 4.49 ERA, though an 11.3 SwStr% certainly suggests something better than the 16.7 K% he’s posted over that time. The Giants are certainly not an easy matchup, but the projected lineup does include six batters with at least a 24.9 K% vs RHP since last season.

Tarik Skubal is the fifth ranked prospect in the Detroit system with a 50 Future Value grade according to Fangraphs. He’s pitched just 42.1 innings above A ball, but struck out 48.2% of the batters he faced at AA! The Tigers think the 23 year-old prospect is ready and he should at least find some strikeouts in the lineup he faces in his debut. In fact, only three batters in the confirmed White Sox lineup are below a 26 K% vs LHP since last season. There’s always the risk that the Tigers go extra conservative on his workload, but Skubal has some upside in this spot for just $6K on FanDuel, when many players may not even know who he is.