Ty Blach Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Camden is nowhere near Coors in terms of run environment, but it’s still a significant upgrade for the Dodger offense and Baltimore pitching may make it feel like Coors. Ty Blach has allowed 30 ERs and six HRs in just 24.2 innings this year, sporting a 0.8 K-BB% and xwOBA above .390. His 9.86 DRA is just a run below his ERA (10.95). This, despite having allowed just 5.6% Barrels/BBE on 42% 95+ mph EV and just a 36 GB%. In other words, this could be even worse. While the Dodgers are certainly more potent against RHP, a common misconception is that they aren’t a good offense against LHP and nothing could be further from the truth. They have the ninth best wRC+ in the majors against southpaws (105) with a 9.4 BB%, 17.8 HR/FB and 28.2 Hard-Soft%. The Dodgers are implied for 6.58 runs tonight, which is the second best total on the board and only one outside Coors above six runs. Batters from either side of the plate are smashing Blach for a wOBA and xwOBA above .380 this season and RHBs are above a .340 against him for his career. Key bats are certainly A.J. Pollock (148 wRC+, .185 ISO vs LHP this year), Justin Turner (141 wRC+, .297 ISO) and Cody Bellinger (154 wRC+, .329 ISO). For others, including David Freese (133 wRC+, .256 ISO), Will Smith (91 wRC+, .239 ISO), Enrique Hernandez (102 wRC+, .176 ISO), Chris Taylor (126 wRC+, .280 ISO) and perhaps Jedd Gyorko, who hasn’t played much this year, but costs the minimum on FanDuel ($3.1K on DraftKings), it would probably depend on where they ended up in the order.

It’s tough to imagine that a pitcher who’s worn out his welcome in San Francisco can succeed in Baltimore and while Tyler Blach has struck out 10 of his first 45 batters (Red Sox & Yankees too) for the Orioles, he’s also allowed 12 runs. To be honest, he’s faced strong offenses in all four his major league appearances this year, but even so, allowing 22 runs in 15.1 innings with just three more strikeouts than walks, is completely unacceptable for a major league pitcher. This, despite allowing just 5.2% Barrels/BBE. His AAA numbers aren’t much better with an ERA and estimators above five in over 90 innings. Over the last calendar year, batters from either side of the plate have hit him well (above a .325 wOBA and xwOBA) and the Rays get a nice park upgrade here against a pitching staff that has already owns the single season record for home runs allowed. Tommy Pham, destroyer of southpaws, (169 wRC+, .196 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) may be one of the top overall bats on the board tonight. Travis D’arnaud (123 wRC+, .271 ISO) costs less than $3K on Fanduel. Austin Meadows (101 wRC+, .228 ISO) merits serious consideration too despite the lefty on lefty matchup. The Rays are one of only two offenses above six implied runs tonight (6.26).

Ty Blach drew the short straw for the Astros and has been chosen the pitcher to serve HRs up to the Yankees tonight. Since being acquired from San Francisco, where he had a career 5.2 K-BB% in 305.2 innings, he struck out four of 12 batters faced in his only outing at AAA, but also allowed six base runners. He’s allowed 10 ERs (2 HRs) in 6.1 innings at the major league level this year, striking out just three of 36 Mets and Dodgers. His 34.5 GB% was 15 points below his career average. While there has not yet been a run total set for this game due to the delay in starting assignment announcements, it would be fairly surprising if the Yankees were not at the top of the board, considering their 7.64 implied run line in game one. Of course, wait for lineup confirmation later this afternoon, but with his absence in first game, Aaron Judge’s presence in the lineup is likely a sure thing. Both he (172 wRC+, .263 ISO, 64.7 Hard%) and DJ LeMahieu (164 wRC+, .259 ISO) have reigned down destruction on southpaws over the last calendar year, while Giovanny Urshela (131 wRC+, .263 ISO) remains red hot (.351 wRC+ last seven days). RHBs have just a league average .326 wOBA against Blach over the last calendar year, but with a 50.9 Hard%. Blach owns a career 9.5 HR/FB, but that should be taken with a grain of salt pitching in San Francisco.

Ty Blach is a strange choice to start your first game of the season. He struck out just 10.6% of batters with an ERA and estimators all around five. He did, however, generate both a wOBA and xwOBA below .330 due to an ability to generate weak contact (3.7% Barrels/BBE is second best among Opening Day pitchers). With Kershaw, Kluber, and the humidor on the slate, the Dodger lineup may be the best option for offense on the late slate. Surprisingly absent from the lineup is Austin Barnes, who mashed lefties last season, but Kike Hernandez (144 wRC+, .309 ISO) is another affordable favorite, who bats cleanup tonight. Logan Forsythe (138 wRC+) bats eighth, Chris Taylor (122 wRC+, .181 ISO vs LHP) leadoff, Yasiel Puig, who struggled against southpaws (61 wRC+, .092 ISO) bats third, and Matt Kemp (108 wRC+, .211 ISO) bats sixth.

The Colorado Rockies have an slate leading 6.83 run projection from Vegas tonight that's well above the next highest team (Cleveland 6.04), who are a half run ahead of the rest of the pack themselves. In all, eight teams have an implied run line above five runs and four more above 4.8 on a full board. The Rockies are generally going to have an inflated run line at home and due to poor performance this season, they've often been a profitable fade at Coors, especially when facing competent pitching. Tonight, they face Ty Blach. He has just an 11.1 K% (6.4 SwStr%), but an 85.8 mph aEV and 3.8% Barrels/BBE (fifth best on the entire board), which often makes him a guy to completely ignore in a daily fantasy setting. However, we know that marginal contact travels farther at Coors and he's also allowed six HRs over his last four starts with a hard hit rate above 33% in four of his last six starts. RHBs overall have a .347 wOBA and 33.1 Hard% against him this season. Nolan Arenado (212 wRC+, .431 ISO, 36.1 Hard%, 49.1 FB% vs LHP) is today's top overall bat with DJ LeMahieu (146 wRC+, .181 ISO vs LHP) and Trevor Story (153 wRC+, .373 ISO, 48.3 Hard%, 46.7 vs LHP) candidates for an abundance of exposure as well. Story even costs below $4K on either site because he's been so terrible against RHP this year. Although Blach has handled LHBs well (.273 wRC+, 29.5 Hard%), Charlie Blackmon hits LHP very well (138 wRC+, .234 ISO). Players certainly shouldn't be sleeping on Cleveland bats either. They are facing David Holmberg. He's faced 373 RHBs in his career, allowing a .380 wOBA with 20 HRs (39.5 GB%, 22 Hard-Soft%). Jose Ramirez (125 wRC+, .207 ISO vs LHP) and Edwin Encarnacion (122 wRC+, .191 ISO vs LHP) are perhaps the top batters outside Coors with Austin Jackson (164 wRC+, .221 ISO) a strong value if he remains near the top of the order.

Eleven teams have a projected run line of 4.85 or higher on a full slate with Arizona (5.82) and Boston (5.62) nearly one-third of a run separated from the rest of the pack on top. Paul Goldschmidt (144 wRC+, .238 ISO vs LHP) and J.D. Martinez (267 wRC+, .552 ISO vs LHP) are always going to look tremendous against a marginal lefty at home. Both have a wRC+ below 55, but hard hit rate at 40% or above over the last week. Ty Blach has just an 11.4 K% on the season, but also an 85.6 mph aEV. It should be interesting with a weak contact generator going from San Francisco to Arizona. Boston faces Jeremy Hellickson, who allowed five HRs in his last start. Over his last seven starts, he has a hard hit rate above 40% five times without a ground ball rate exceeding 40% in any of them. LHBs have a 13.6 GB% and 42.5 Hard% over that span. Rafael Devers (130 wRC+, .296 ISO vs RHP) and Andrew Benintendi (117 wRC+, .190 ISO vs RHP) are the top plays there, though both have a wRC+ and hard hit rate below average over the last week. Mitch Moreland (106 wRC+, .211 ISO vs RHP) has a 268 wRC+, but just a 23.5 Hard% over the last seven days. The Reds are in the middle of the board, with an implied run line of 4.52 runs, but players should strongly consider their LHBs at home. Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, and Scott Schebler all have an ISO above .250 against RHP this year. LHBs have a .398 wOBA and 10 HRs against Ivan Nova over his last 14 starts.

The Marlins and Giants are the only significant run line mover on tonight's slate over the course of the afternoon. They are up over a quarter of a run, from 4.62 implied runs earlier this afternoon to 4.9 runs currently. Their opponent, San Francisco, is up nearly as much, going from 3.88 runs to 4.1 runs too. The pitching matchup for this game is Adam Conley (16.4 K%, 5.13 SIERA) vs Ty Blach (11.8 K%, 5.08 SIERA). It's no doubt these pitchers can be scored upon, but the prowess of the two offenses are in question. While there are four players across both lineups with both a wRC+ above 140 and ISO above .250 against LHP this season, three of them (J.T. Realmuto, Buster Posey, and Nick Hundley) are all Catcher eligible. The exception, of course, is Giancarlo Stanton, who has homered in nine of his last 10 games and is the only one of the four with a wRC+ above 100 or hard hit rate above 30% over the last week. Players can see run lines and track movement for all teams on the Vegas Odds page.

Just because a pitcher is not a useful daily fantasy asset doesn't necessarily mean we should always attack him. Some pitchers are effective contact managers who have issues with either their strikeout and/or walk rates which destroy their daily fantasy value. Ty Blach may be one such pitcher tonight. He has just an 11.8 K% and 4.38 ERA, but what his 5.08 SIERA does not take into account is his 85.1 mph aEV (31.1% 95+ mph EV), which has resulted in barrels on just 4.6% of his batted balls. That he allows harder contact to LH batters (31.3% to 28.3% for RHBs) in a cavernous park in San Francisco doesn't exactly hurt him either. This has allowed him to keep batters from either side under a .330 wOBA in his career so far. Another pitcher with a smaller sample size (five starts), who may be difficult to assess in a daily fantasy setting is Cincinnati's Sal Romano. RHBs have a .397 wOBA, but with just a 24.2 Hard% and 60% ground ball rate. He's walked 17.3% of them (1.9 K-BB%). He has an 84 mph aEV overall, but RHBs have a 35.7 Hard%. Essentially, players are looking for RHBs to walk or find a hole with the LHBs driving them in if stacking Pirates. On the opposite end of the spectrum, premium subscribers have access to the Trendspotting article, which looks at batters and pitchers that match up for the most hard contact on a given slate.

Ty Blach is actually coming off of back-to-back solid performances in his previous two outings, allowing two earned runs or less and going at least seven innings in each start. However, this is not a trend we should expect from Blach going forward, as he is still a pitcher that owns a ridiculously low 7.6% strikeout rate on the season and just a 10.2% strikeout rate for his career. He is managing to get by with a 4.15 ERA by limiting hard contact (27.9% HH%) but a 5.63 SIERA proves that negative regression in that category is virtually guaranteed. With the wind blowing out of Wrigley Field again tonight, a matchup with a dangerous Chicago Cubs offense may just be the spot for this aforementioned regression to begin. Blach has managed a 53.8% groundball rate to left-handed batters so far in his career, but just average groundballs (46.8% GB%) and fly balls (36.9% FB%) to righties combined with the previously mentioned low strikeouts against hitters from both sides of the plate. His career sample size remains small, so it's tough to put too much stock in his 25.2% hard hit rate to right-handed batters, but if searching for a reason to fade the Cubs bats in tournaments, that would be it, albeit flimsy. Kris Bryant (192 wRC+, .464 wOBA, .362 ISO) easily stands out as the top play from this Chicago lineup, as he has recorded a 41.3% hard hit rate versus left-handed pitching dating back to the beginning of the 2016 season. Meanwhile, Albert Almora (153 wRC+, .407 wOBA, .286 ISO vs LHP since 2016), Ben Zobrist (118 wRC+, .351 wOBA vs LHP since 2016), Wilson Contreras (123 wRC+, .360 wOBA, .179 ISO vs LHP since 2016),and Addison Russell (110 wRC+, .339 wOBA, .234 ISO vs LHP since 2016) are the logical righties to accompany Bryant in a Cubs tournament stack, though don't be afraid to go contrarian and include Anthony Rizzo (119 wRC+, .353 wOBA, .197 ISO vs LHP since 2016), who traditionally hits southpaws well despite sacrificing the platoon advantage.

Ty Blach is coming off of two consecutive solid outings in which he's allowed two earned runs or less, including seven shutout innings in his previous start against the San Diego Padres. The primary issue with Blach's pitching profile is the absurdly low 11.5% strikeout rate he has notched through 13 career MLB appearances, including four starts, which could become an issue against a Cincinnati Reds lineup that typically punches out a decent amount versus left-handed pitching. The decreased threat of strikeouts makes the Reds an interesting stack in tournaments at home in Great American Ballpark (a.k.a. Great American Smallpark), though it seems best to avoid too many one-offs given Blach's ability to suppress offense thus far in his brief Major League career, evidenced by a.198 wOBA versus left-handed batters and a .221 wOBA versus righties. Despite the solid numbers for Blach, anytime a starting pitcher allows this many balls in play, it's a great spot to target an offense in hopes of capitalizing on several big innings before getting to the front end of a team's bullpen. Eugenio Suarez (141 wRC+, .389 wOBA, .261 ISO vs LHP since 2016) and Adam Duvall (119 wRC+, .356 wOBA, .288 ISO vs LHP since 2016) are the clear top Reds hitters to target as the core to Cincinnati stacks, while Joey Votto (131 wRC+, .374 wOBA, .190 ISO vs LHP since 2016) and Zack Cozart (.242 ISO vs LHP since 2016) also remain firmly in play even with Votto's steep decline in power versus left-handed pitching. If aiming to complete the full five-man stack, Jose Peraza or Billy Hamilton make the most sense given their stolen base upside should they reach safely as the lead runner.