Tyler Duffey Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Tyler Duffey has a reverse platoon split (RHBs .384 wOBA, 33.9 Hard%, 20 of 27 HRs career) and could be in trouble in Detroit. It’s not a good matchup for him, but a $4.7K price tag on DraftKings is still too low for his above average peripherals (13.4 K-BB% this season and a career 14.6 K-BB% on the road). Risk embracers could consider pairing him with Fernandez on a board otherwise deficient in pitching value. The Tigers have just a 77 wRC+ over the last week with only Victor Martinez (137) above 100 over that span. The Tigers are projected for a second best five runs tonight though, so we're certainly on the two RH Detroit bats that hammer RHP. J.D. Martinez (143 wRC+, .246 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Miguel Cabrera (151 wRC+, .214 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are top overall bats tonight. Justin Upton (113 wRC+, .206 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has missed a few games this week, but has two HRs in five PAs against Duffey.

Tyler Duffey was banished to AAA at the end of August. He made two starts there, striking out 15 of 57 batters, but also uncharacteristically walking five of them and allowing four HRs in the more recent one. He's had decent peripherals in the majors (13.3 K-BB% over 173 career innings), but struggled with hard contact this year (33.6 Hard% and 22 HRs in 115 innings). More than half of them came at home against RHBs (13), as he's shown a reverse platoon split (RHBs .383 wOBA against him since last season). Naturally, a manager who keeps his most potent bat batting eighth (Tyler Naquin 144 wRC+, .259 ISO vs RHP) would have just one RH batter in the first eight. At least Mike Napoli (111 wRC+, .243 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is batting cleanup and costs a reasonable $4.1K on DraftKings. He and Naquin are also the only two batters in the first eight with a wRC+ below 108 over the last week. Projected for 4.8 runs tonight, Cleveland batters should be considered, as the top three in the order all have a 120+ wRC+ vs RHP this season, but exposure would probably be more efficient on Fanduel where they all cost less than $4K.

The Tigers against Tyler Duffey are one of the more intriguing matchups tonight. Duffey has decent advanced metrics with a low walk rate and a 4.07 SIERA that is significantly lower than his 5.93 ERA. He has a high .330 BABIP and 19.2% HR/FB rate, but they may not be entirely fluky, as he simply throws too many strikes at times. Duffey just doesn’t have a ton of swing and miss ability (8.4% SwStr%), or ability to induce soft contact (16.6% Hard-Soft%). Duffy is also a reverse splits pitcher, which does not set up well against this Detroit lineup. He allows more hard contact (35.9%) and more fly balls (32.8%) with lower strikeouts (16.3% K%) and higher walks to right-handed batters. The top bats here are Miguel Cabrera (149 wRC+, .394 wOBA, .250 ISO) and J.D. Martinez (153 wRC+, .400 wOBA, .249 ISO). Cameron Maybin (112 wRC+, .340 wOBA vs RHP) is an integral cog of a Tigers stack batting lead off, while the suddenly on fire Justin Upton is worth a shot in tournaments.

Tyler Duffey has excelled on the road, though he’s pitched well in his last two starts at home as well. Away from home, he has a career 14.9 K-BB%. In his last three starts overall, he’s struck out 20 of 74 with just two walks. He faces the Royals again, whom he shut down in his last start. Though they’re better at home (99 wRC+), it’s probably a boost to his 18.8 HR/FB pitching in Kansas City. The Royals doesn’t walk (6.1%), strikes out at an average rate (20.3%) and have little power (9.3 HR/FB) vs RHP. Duffey has had a history of burning owners in what appeared to be good spots for him at home this season, which could lower his ownership here (check our Projected Ownership page when it becomes available). He's an interesting play with an average price tag ($7.4K on DraftKings), but even cheaper ($6.5K) on FanDuel as essentially a pick'em tonight. Duffey has exhibited a significant reverse split in his career (RHBs have a .375 wOBA and 33.5 Hard% against him) and though the Royals throw six RHBs out there, including the top three, only Eric Hosmer (119 wRC+) has been an above average hitter against RHP. Salvador Perez does have a 96 wRC+ and leads the team in power with a .200 ISO vs RHP.

The Astros right-handed batters should be in one of the elite spots on this slate given the recent form of Tyler Duffey. He has exhibited some significant reverse splits and definitely struggles with right-handed batters, posting a below-average 15.3% strikeout rate, a slightly below-average ground ball rate (43.9%), and a massive 36.8% hard contact rate. With the watered-down lineup the Astros are rolling out tonight, we will want to focus our exposure on the top half of the lineup. Carlos Correa (139 wRC+, .379 wOBA, .232 ISO vs RHP) and George Springer (.177 ISO vs RHP) are the top plays here batting three-four with Altuve out of the lineup. Evan Gattis (.184 ISO vs RHP) can always provide some power upside at the barren catcher position making him a viable option in all formats. We can also consider taking a shot on Tony Kemp (127 wRC+, .361 wOBA vs RHP) and Alex Bregman as possible options to round out any Houston stacks.

There's no denying that Tyler Duffey has been dreadful in his last two starts, but he has also flashed upside recently, striking out at least eight in two of his last six starts. On a slate where we may want to get exposure to some higher priced bats, there is case to made for rostering Duffey in tournaments on sites where he is at or near minimum price. Duffey has shown some pretty massive reverse splits this season (.411 wOBA, 6.33 FIP, 2.42 HR/9 vs RHB) and to this point in his short career as a matter of fact. These numbers would be great to attack if Cleveland wasn't rolling out a lineup with just two right-handed batters. Duffey also has a basically league average strikeout rate to lefties (19.7%) while only allowing a 3.6% BB% and inducing a 53.5% ground ball rate. This is not a rousing Tyler Duffey endorsement by any means but there is evidence to support that he could put together a good performance for his low price tag in this matchup. However, if preferring to attack Duffey with Cleveland bats, Mike Napoli (.266 ISO vs RHP) is the top option and has been absolutely raking over the last week. To round out the Indians stack we should look to Tyler Naquin (176 wRC+, .431 wOBA, .293 ISO vs RHP), Jason Kipnis (136 wRC+, .374 wOBA, .226 ISO vs RHP), Lonnie Chisenhall (121 wRC+, .351 wOBA, .165 ISO vs RHP), and Francisco Lindor (119 wRC+, .348 wOBA, .156 ISO vs RHP).

Duffey may be in consideration for some tonight as he has good control (5.6% BB%), and the matchup with Atlanta puts him in prime position to string together a solid outing and pick up the win. Duffey has flashed strikeout upside in previous starts but that is not something we should expect against the Braves as they are a decent contact lineup versus righties (19.9% K%). However, Duffey has been much better against left-handed batters posting a 20.5% K% possibly increasing his upside. The Braves are rolling out a primarily lefty lineup tonight as they usually do versus RHP but they're actually may be more fantasy goodness to be had from Duffey tonight than initially expected given his reverse splits.

Tihis Red Sox offense clearly has the ability to go off against pitcher, let alone a run-of-the-mill major league starting pitcher like Tyler Duffey (4.03 SIERA). In tournaments, the Red Sox offense should absorb a substantial amount of the non-Coors ownership, but this may actually be an opportunity to gain an edge on the field, as most players will gravitate to David Ortiz, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Travis Shaw with the platoon advantage. Duffey actually has a slightly above-average strikeout rate to lefties (21.2% K%), an elite ground ball rate (55%) to lefties, and has done a decent job limiting hard contact to lefties (28.0% Hard %). Right-handed batters are the ones who really do the damage against Duffey, as he has only managed a 16.2% K% against them while surrendering an absurd 21.7% HR/FB rate and a less-than-good 35.3% Hard%. This means we can still get exposure the Red Sox offense while being somewhat contrarian. Mookie Betts (130 wRC+, .374 wOBA, .214 ISO vs RHP), Xander Bogaerts (121 wRC+, .360 wOBA vs RHP), and Dustin Pedroia (117 wRC+, .354 wOBA, .152 ISO vs RHP) are the top options we want to target if adopting this approach.

Tyler Duffey has a reverse platoon split. RHBs have a .358 wOBA and 31.7 Hard% through 131.2 career innings, while LHBs are 55 points less with just a 28.6 Hard%. That works out great for Ian Desmond, who might be the team's best hitter vs RHP this season (120 wRC+, .206 ISO). He also costs at least $4K on each site. Of the Rangers LHBs, only Profar (161 wRC+) in limited opportunities and Mazara (117 wRC+) batting eighth, have a wRC+ above 105, though Odor does have a .219 ISO. No Texas bat is below $3.7K on DraftKings. Despite the best record in the American League and many LHBs, the Rangers have just a 91 wRC+ vs RHP this year with fairly average strikeout, walk, and HR rates. They are projected for well over five runs tonight anyway, but players on DraftKings looking for a cheap secondary option could consider that Tyler Duffey has the same 13.8 K-BB% as Trevor Bauer this year for half the price. There's a difference in opponent quality and park tonight, of course, but he costs just $5.1K with some upside.

Tyler Duffey no longer has great peripherals after two rough starts (three walks, five strikeouts), but still has an above average 13.7 K-BB% that probably deserves better than a price tag $6.5K or less on either site against the Phillies (77 wRC+ on the road, 71 wRC+ vs RHP, 27 wRC+ last seven days). Duffey has struck out six or more in half of his 10 starts and pitched into the seventh inning four times. He makes an interesting compliment to a higher priced pitcher on two pitcher sites. There's little to no interest in weak Phillies bats.