Tylor Megill Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Frankie Montas is the only pitcher costing more than $10K on either site ($10.2K on FanDuel) on a 13 game Friday night slate, though Nestor Cortes costs exactly that much on both. Lucas Giolito and Tylor Megill are the only other pitchers on the board to reach the $9K price point on both sites. Aaron Nola is $9.9K on FanDuel, but less than $9K on DraftKings. Starting at the top, early projections (PlateIQ) rank Montas, Nola and then Giolito in that order on either site and they are not separated by much in terms of point total or ownership currently, as the three are also expected to be the most popular pitchers right now (though remember, these numbers are fluid and change throughout the day). All Montas has done is rack up a 22.3 K-BB% with a 50 GB% and 20 IFFB%. This has led to just three barrels (4.7%) and estimators all more than a quarter of a run below his 3.28 ERA (.226 BABIP, 60.4 LOB%). Pitching at home in a great park, the matchup is not ideal (Guardians 126 wRC+, 21 K% vs RHP), but they have been regressing heavily with just a team 61 wRC+ over the last seven days. Montas is currently the top projected value on DraftKings among confirmed pitchers tonight as well.

After punching out nine Brewers over seven one-hit shutout innings in his last start, Nola has the strikeout rate up to 29.8% with just a 6.0 BB%. The problem has been when contact is made, despite a 58 GB%. Six of his 22 non-grounders have been barrels with four of them leaving the yard. However, his FIP (4.28) is the only estimator above three. He gets a park upgrade and the Mets have just an 18.4 K% (132 wRC+) vs RHP. If ownership projections remain high, he could be a pitcher to fade. Giolito struck out six of 15 Tigers then missed a start with a short IL stint. He returned to strike out nine of 19 Twins and has a 21.2 SwStr% through 137 pitches. There is the 93.4 mph EV, but it’s only 14 batted balls. The Angels have a 130 wRC+ and 22.7 K% vs RHP, though this particular projected lineup includes four batters that have struck out in at least one-quarter of PAs vs RHP this year. Additional issues with Giolito include workload, due both to the fact that he only threw 76 pitches last time out and this being the one game on the board with significant weather concern. In addition to projection updates in LineupHQ, Giolito backers will need to keep on top of Kevin’s forecast today.

Down to the two New York pitchers, Cortes finds himself among the top 10 projected pitchers, while Megill is seventh on either site. Cortes has struck out an astounding 25 of 56 batters…with a 10.8 SwStr%. And a 19.5 CStr% that’s not even that high. Sure, the 64.3 F-Strike% is great, but this is a complete fluke. More sustainably, he’s walked just three. He’s also allowed just a single barrel (3.6%) with an 86.5 mph EV. Estimators, which entirely buy into the strikeout rate are mostly below one and a half. The Royals have just a 66 wRC+ vs LHP this year, but that’s in a small sample and mostly due to a 4.0 HR/FB. They’ve struck out in just 18.6% of PAs against southpaws. The projections are probably correct that Cortes may be a bit over-valued by his price tag.

Megill is a different story. He may still be under-valued by projections. He has worked through the order three times in each of his last two starts and while the velocity dipped two starts back, it was still above last year’s and jumped right back up last time out in Arizona. The profile includes a 21.3 K-BB% with a 24.7 K% that could move even higher with a 13.3 SwStr%. He’s allowed just four barrels (6.3%) and two home runs. A 3.47 DRA is his only estimator that reaches three. The Phillies own a 109 wRC+ and 21 K% vs RHP this season, but that includes a couple of series against Rockies pitching. If Megill remains around 10% ownership, as is currently projected, he’s your GPP arm tonight.

Without a must have dominant arm atop the board tonight, players might consider building their lineups around bats and paying down for pitching. If that’s the case, there are a few spots where we might find some upside, but with risk (otherwise they’d cost more). The most obvious name is Tylor Megill, who costs $9.2K on DraftKings, but $1.4K less on FanDuel, where he might just be the top value tonight. Megill has allowed 12 home runs (20.3 HR/FB) on 17 barrels (12.6%) over his last 10 starts, so there are certainly some issues in the contact profile, but only four of his 15 home runs have come to RHBs, which gives him an advantage against the Cardinals and the strikeout upside is real (27.2% with just a 6.2 BB%). Non-FIP estimators are about half a run lower than his 4.06 ERA and that includes his xERA (3.43). While Citi Field is usually a solidly negative run environment, the weather might have something to say about that tonight (Weather Edge is currently expecting a substantial boost to bats, but in a very small sample). Either way, the Cardinals have just an 88 wRC+ vs RHP, though the projected lineup includes just two batters above a 20.5 K% against them this year.

The remaining three pitchers exceeding a 25 K%, but costing less than $9K are Huascar Ynoa, Nestor Cortes and Ranger Suarez. Ynoa struck out seven of 20 Nationals last time out to push his strikeout rate up to 27% and those strikeouts are necessary because his 90.5 mph EV has led to 9.0% Barrels/BBE. However with a 20.4 K-BB% most of his estimators are within half a run of his 3.22 ERA. The lone exception being a 4.17 xERA built off that contact profile. Great matchup (Rockies 71 wRC+ on the road, 77 wRC+ vs RHP), but in a difficult run environment with a hitter friendly umpire.

Cortes & Suarez are both recently converted relievers. Cortes has increased his swinging strike rate over his last five starts (11.6%) to the point where it can actually support his strikeout rate (24.8% last five starts). He’s allowed 10 home runs over his last 47.2 innings, but just nine barrels (6.6%) with estimators all over the place this season, ranging from a 3.11 xERA to 4.43 DRA. The O’s have a 109 wRC+ at home and 107 wRC+ vs LHP with four in the projected lineup exceeding a 24 K% vs LHP. The matchup and environment are the major challenges here, similar to Suarez because Philadelphia is expecting a major weather boost tonight in a not so small sample and the Cubs can still hit LHP (101 wRC+), though the projected lineup includes five batters above a 24 K% against lefties this year. Suarez has allowed just seven runs over 37.2 innings since moving into the rotation. While some of the early success has been due to strand rate luck and he still hasn’t allowed a home run, the strikeout rate is up over his last four starts (27.5%), while he has just one start with less than half of his contact on the ground as a starter with an 86.2 mph EV.

Thankfully, players probably aren’t going to need a cheap punt in their SP2 spot on DraftKings tonight because that guy doesn’t really exist tonight. Dallas Keuchel, Griffin Jax, Jon Lester and even Mike Minor all have strikeout rates below 16% over the last month, while Arihara is below 15% for the year. Merrill Kelly returning from injury. John Means is facing the Yankees in Baltimore. He has had some contact profile issues recently and the Yankees can still pound on LHP. Lastly, Alec Mills has just a 16.9 K% and pitches in a terrible environment tonight. The upper middle of the board is where it’s at tonight.

If you’re looking for a pitcher costing less than $9K, who might be able to stand alone tonight, Tylor Megill costs just $7K on FanDuel, who is still carrying an impressive 26.2 K% (19.8 K-BB%), but he’s run into some contact profile issues as of late, allowing seven home runs on eight barrels with just 35.7% of his contact on the ground and a 91.2 mph EV over his last three starts. His 7.98 ERA just about matches his FIP (7.73), nearly double his xFIP (3.95) over this span. While his 4.43 season FIP is his only estimator above his 4.20 ERA (16.5 HR/FB) or even above four, his contact profile produces a 3.56 ERA that’s actually his second best estimator. There’s some value here, especially when you consider that the Yankees have just a 96 wRC+ vs RHP and lose their DH in a tough park to hit in across town tonight. Currently projecting Joey Gallo as the odd man out, four of the eight remaining still have a 25.5 K% or worse vs RHP this season.

There are several more struggling or unproven pitchers whom DraftKings has priced down tonight, worth slotting into SP2 spots, especially in GPPs. Throwing fewer than 85 pitches in each of his first two starts, Glenn Ottto has struck out 11 of 36 batters, but with just an 8.3 SwStr%. However, he’s walked just one with 54.2% of his contact on the ground and an 84.9 mph EV. Otto is not a highly regarded prospect (or at least wasn’t when prospect reports were written up earlier in the year), but did produce a 40.7 K% over 65.1 AA innings. Then just under a quarter of batters faced in 30 AAA innings. He faces a tough Oakland lineup (103 wRC+ with just one projected batter above a 21.5 K% vs RHP), but in a great park at a low cost ($6.3K on DraftKings). Another rookie, Eli Morgan, costs $7.1K on DraftKings, occasionally showing some strikeout upside with a high of nine twice, but fewer than five in half of his 14 starts. The 28.2 GB% with an 89.5 mph EV is a problem. While 12 of his 15 home runs were surrendered in his first eight starts, he’s still allowed 11 barrels (12.8%) over his last six starts. The projected Milwaukee lineup includes four batters with at least a 24 K% vs RHP.

Hitting on some more established, but struggling lower priced arms, German Marquez has hit a wall with an 18.5 K% over his last five starts and eight home runs allowed. Three of those starts have been away from Coors in some pitcher friendly parks (Texas, San Fransico, Chicago NL). He’s allowed 23 runs (21 earned) over 24.1 innings with a small drop in his ground ball rate (48.8%) and rise in his average exit velocity (89.5 mph). The only good takeaways are that he’s walked just six and his velocity hasn’t declined. Season estimators are still below his 4.08 ERA with the best of them being a 3.33 DRA. The Phillies don’t strike out a lot as currently constructed, but Marquez costs just $6.8K on DraftKings.

Ian Anderson has not struck out any of the 39 batters he’s faced since returning from the IL (6.1 SwStr%), while walking six with reduced velocity. He now has just a 10.0 K-BB% on the season, but costs $6.6K on DraftKings, while five in the projected opposing lineup exceed a 26.5 K% vs RHP. This is a get right spot for him. In two starts back from the IL, he’s struck out 11 of 39 batters, but with four walks and three home runs. All three of his barrels and one-third of his fly balls leaving the yard with an 87 mph EV since returning seems a bit fluky though. The bottom half of the projected Tampa Bay lineup includes five batters with at least a 23.8 K% vs LHP this year and Body costs just $5.6K on DraftKings. The opposing pitcher, Michael Wacha costs $8.1K, but has struck out 27 of his last 91 batters (13.3 SwStr%) with just three walks, dropping his contact neutral estimators below four and a half, while five in the projected Detroit lineup exceed a 23.5 K% vs RHP.