Ubaldo Jimenez Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Five of tonight's 16 pitchers have an aEV of 85.2 mph or less this year all with less than 5% Barrels/BBE and 33% 95+ mph EV (three below 30%). Neither Carlos Carrasco, nor Zack Greinke are among that group. Kenta Maeda (84.9 - 4.6% - 29.3%) and C.C. Sabathia (84.4 - 4.1% - 29.5%) are probably names that won't surprise anyone at this point in the season. Kyle Freeland (84.4 - 4.4% - 32.8%) might and he's still going to be a pitcher players want to attack tonight considering that Paul Goldschmidt and J.D. Martinez are likely going to be in the opposing lineup. Among those with much smaller samples, Brandon Woodruff (84.7 - 3.1% - 32.3%) does come with some prospect hype, has started his career strongly and is in a nice spot against a weak hitting Pittsburgh offense. Chris Stratton (85.2 - 4.8% - 27.4%) pitches in a great park (San Francisco) against an ice cold offense tonight (43 wRC+, 27.4 K%, 8.2 HR/FB last seven days). He has struck out 10 in two of his last four starts, but no more than four in any of his other four starts this year and has not exceeded a 20.2 K% since A ball. On the other end of the spectrum are Reynaldo Lopez (89.5 - 9.1% - 36.4%), Ubaldo Jimenez (88.4 - 7.8% - 39.6%), and Ariel Miranda (87 - 9.5% - 34.1%). Lopez has some strikeout ability with an 8.8% or better SwStr% in all four starts, but a 28.8 GB% is not going to lead to a lot of favorable outcomes with that much hard contact. Jimenez should probably no longer be starting in this league. Miranda is tied of the league lead with 35 HRs allowed in just 156.1 innings (30 to RHBs).

Ten teams are projected for 4.9 runs or higher on just an eight game slate tonight with only four teams below 4.5 runs. There is certainly no shortage of pitchers to attack tonight, namely James Shields against whom both right and left-handed batters have a wOBA above .360 since last season. RHBs additionally enjoy a hard hit rate of 39% (10 points higher than LHBs). Batters from either side also have a wOBA above .350 against Matt Cain since last year, who pitches in Oakland tonight. Other pitchers can be attacked hard by batters from one side of the plate or another. LHBs have a .405 wOBA and 36.9 Hard% with just 37.9% ground balls against Doug Fister since last season, which puts most of the Cleveland lineup in high regard tonight. LHBs also have .393 wOBA (32.7 Hard%) against Ubaldo Jimenez, giving a more balanced Kansas City lineup a few very interesting bats. While Charlie Morton has an uncharacteristic reverse split this year, RHBs have a 55.6 GB% to go along with their .347 wOBA against him, though the other side of that matchup gives us Alex Cobb and his .333 wOBA against LHBs with a 35.2 Hard%. Great timing considering that the Astros have recently lose two of their top RH bats to injury. While those splits answer one question in the Cleveland lineup, which is Carlos Santana (134 wRC+, .257 ISO vs RHP since 2016) over Edwin Encarnacion (129 wRC+, .257 ISO vs RHP since 2016) at First Base in stacks tonight (Santana also has a 231 wRC+ over the last seven days), Justin Smoak (139 wRC+, .292 ISO vs RHP this year) gives him some competition for the top bat at the position and perhaps overall tonight. As for the value play bat tonight (pitching is more expensive than expected), that may be Derek Fisher (160 wRC, .222 ISO, 54.6 Hard% vs RHP), hopefully at the top of the Houston lineup.

According to Statcast, two batters have homered three times against the pitcher they are facing tonight, both with a lot of history in the matchup. Carlos Beltran has faced Ubaldo Jimenez 29 times with five extra-base hits, but more amazingly, no strikeouts. His 89.6 mph aEV on eight BBEs in the Statcast era is above average, though not that impressive. Sustaining an ISO a bit above .200 in the middle of one of the top offenses tonight, he should be a strong consideration against a pitcher who has allowed LHBs a .398 wOBA since last season. Brian Dozier has four extra-base hits in 34 PAs against Anibal Sanchez with eight strikeouts. On 11 Statcast recorded BBEs, he has a 92.7 mph aEV. He also has a 240 wRC+ and 50 Hard% since the break. Sanchez had been pitching better until allowing three HRs in his last start. Dozier is also the only batter to exceed a 90.4 mph aEV among batters who have at least 10 Statcast recorded BBEs against tonight's pitcher. Dropping the requirement to eight BBEs gives us a pair of hard hitting White Sox against Ian Kennedy. Jose Abreu has a 97.1 mph on nine BBEs, but no extra-base hits in 11 PAs. Melky Cabrera has a 93.1 mpph aEV (eight BBEs), but four extra-base hits (two HRs) in 22 PAs.

Several players have homered twice against the pitcher they are facing tonight, but only Manny Machado (98.9 mph, 11 BBEs) and Kendrys Morales (99 mph aEV, four BBEs) exceed a 92 mph aEV. Machado has faced J.A. Happ 40 times, adding a double and triple to his two homers. Morales has faced Ubaldo Jimenez 22 times with two additional doubles. Josh Donaldson also has a 93.9 mph aEV against Jimenez, but with just three extra-base hits and a single homer in 33 PAs. Joey Votto has a 93.9 mph aEV on 13 BBEs against Jimmy Nelson, but without an extra-base hit in 26 PAs. Relaxing requirements to nine BBEs, Jose Reyes has a 95.2 mph aEV against Jose Urena with a double and a triple in 10 PAs.

Victor Martinez has a BvP leading four HRs against Ubaldo Jimenez and while many of their 38 matchups took place prior to Statcast, he still has an excellent 94.2 mph aEV on eight recorded BBEs. J.D. Martinez also has eight recorded BBEs against Jimenez with an impressive 98.3 mph aEV and two HRs. Mike Trout has three HRs against Miguel Gonzalez. Almost all of their 19 matchups occurred before Statcast (two BBEs), players can likely feel confident in this hitter's abilities.

While there are no clear studies concerning games that go 13 innings with 24 runs scored, we do know that teams sometimes suffer hangover effects after double-headers and there may be some leftover impact for the Tigers and Orioles in tonight's game. One could be starting pitchers being pushed a bit further, potentially favoring the Tigers with Michael Fulmer on the mound (at least seven innings in three of last four starts), but also at the plate if Ubaldo Jimenez is hung out to dry. While the Tigers are generally predominantly right-handed, they may stick a few LHBs in there tonight against Ubaldo's .385 wOBA allowed since last season. Alex Avila is almost assuredly going to catch tonight and would make for a great value play with a 130 wRC+ and .198 ISO vs RHP since last season, while Tyler Collins is a more average bat (95 wRC+, .146 ISO), but even cheaper. Victor Martinez (116 wRC+, .177 ISO vs RHP since last season) has some great numbers against Jimenez (four HRs in 38 PAs, 94.2 mph aEV on eight Statcast recorded BBEs). Fifteen to twenty mph winds blowing in from RF could put a bit of a damper on things though. J.D Martinez, Miguel Cabrera, Justin Upton and Ian Kinsler are all certainly in play as well with a wRC+ above 110 against RHP since last year for all four bats and Kinsler the only one below a .230 ISO.

Not only is the red hot Trey Mancini (508 wRC+, 4 HRs) back in the lineup, but he's leading off for the Orioles in Cincinnati tonight. Surprisingly, the Orioles have found a way to jam Chris Davis (106 wRC+, .191 ISO vs LHP since 2015) and Mark Trumbo (94 wRC+, .217 ISO vs LHP since 2015) into an NL park lineup as well. There are several implications here. If players are actually risk embracing enough to choose Ubaldo Jimenez tonight, the defense may be just as challenging as the walks tonight. And while Mancini is at a low enough price with the potential expectation of perhaps an extra PA in the leadoff spot, Cincinnati has been aggressive in the usage of multi-inning weapons Lorenzen and Iglesias, using them as early as the third inning this season. In a close game, rookie Amir Garrett may not get a chance to work through any troubles, forcing the Baltimore lineup to face tougher RHP potentially earlier than you might expect.

There are eight projected starters tonight with a wRC+ of at least 150 against the handed type pitcher they are facing since 2015 (min. 30 PA). Not all of them have favorable matchups (Lorenzo Cain - 159 wRC+ vs LHP - is facing Madison Bumgarner for instance, while Mike Trout - 177 wRC+ vs LHP - faces Dallas Keuchel. In taking matchup, park effects, and weather into consideration tonight, it might be difficult to find strong pairings under this method alone today. Joey Votto (167 wRC+, .244 ISO vs RHP) might be the best of those in Cincinnati against Ubaldo Jimenez (.337 wOBA vs LHBs), but you just know walks are going to be involved, which aren't bad, but don't maximize point potential. Bryce Harper (165 wRC+, .278 ISO vs RHP) faces a good pitcher (Julio Teheran), but one who does struggle against LHBs (.355 wOBA) with a lot of contact in the air. Freddie Freeman (160 wRC+, .273 ISO vs RHP) is on the other side of that matchup against a pitcher (Joe Ross, who also struggles against LHBs (.354 wOBA, 35.9 Hard%). Chris Young (158 wRC+, .244 ISO vs LHP) is one of two bargains here, against the erratic Francisco Liriano (.314 wOBA vs RHBs) along with Brandon Guyer (150 wRC+, .188 ISO vs LHP) in a game that has weather potential vs rookie Adelberto Mejia (.365 wOBA vs RHBs). Miguel Cabrera (157 wRC+, .229 ISO vs RHP) belongs in this group, but faces Chris Archer (.291 wOBA vs RHBs).

It was originally thought that Ubaldo Jimenez might toe the mound today for the Orioles but according to the game preview at mlb.com, it will be Kevin Gausman who gets the starting nod. Gausman is a viable SP2 candidate against a mediocre Reds lineup.

Ubaldo Jimenez is coming off of a lackluster performance in his first start of the season against the New York Yankees in which he allowed two home runs equating to five earned runs in just 4.1 innings pitched. He'll toe the rubber tonight in a matchup against an intimidating Red Sox offense at Fenway Park. This is seemingly a difficult assignment for Jimenez given his 11.3% walk rate from last season and the ability of the Red Sox hitters to work the count and drive up a pitcher's pitch count. However, even with Boston's lofty 5.1 runs implied team total, this situation just screams stack or fade in tournaments considering Jimenez's propensity to randomly put together solid outings and limit home runs relatively well. This is evidenced by his 51.9% groundball rate and minuscule 7.8% HR/FB rate to right-handed batters in 2016. However, the left-handed bats, Andrew Benintendi (152 wRC+, .400 wOBA, .222 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17) and Mitch Moreland (148 wRC+, .373 wOBA, .202 ISO vs RHP), are a must in any Red Sox stack since they carry the most upside, outside of Mookie Betts (140 wRC+, .387 wOBA, .204 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17) of course, and have the platoon advantage to capitalize on Jimenez's 1.54 HR/9 and .378 wOBA allowed to lefties last season.