Vince Velasquez Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Vince Velasquez is a volatile pitcher, whose 4.76 ERA is actually within 60 points of all of his estimators. The ERA bumps up to 5.13, though the estimators actually drop slightly, since moving back into the rotation in June. His 10.4% Barrels/BBE is the lowest of six pitchers above 10% tonight. The key attraction here is the Miami offense. They have a 71 wRC+ on the road and 78 wRC+ with a 25 K% vs RHP. This projected lineup doesn’t feature a batter above a .150 ISO vs RHP this year in the first seven spots, which helps alleviate our key fear against Velasquez. The remaining concern is that he’s even completed five innings (and no more) in just two of his last six starts and would be a difficult roster on FanDuel. However, his price tag is $1.4K less on DraftKings ($6.2K), where he has the upside to make a solid compliment to some of the more expensive pitchers on the board, although there’s not really anyone it’s completely necessary to pay up for tonight.

On what is looking to be a pretty brutal slate for starting pitching, Vince Velasquez looks undoubtedly like one of the better options today. Velasquez’s 3.93 SIERA over the past 30 days ranks 3rd best (min 20 IP) and his 28.7% K Rate ranks 2nd best among 19 qualified starters on the slate. Overall, VV has a 4.76 ERA / 4.74 xFIP with a 1.38 WHIP and 16.9% K-BB. VV gets a matchup with a Marlins team that has a 2nd worst 78 wRC+ and 25% K rate vs. RHP this year. They also have just a 24th ranked .290 xwOBA vs. RHP over the past month. Velasquez has been much better vs. righties over his career (.319 wOBA allowed, 19.1% K-BB vs. RHB compared to .349 wOBA allowed, 13.5% K-BB vs. LHB) and will face just 2 lefties in the Marlins’ order tonight. Despite the great matchup, Velasquez comes in at just $7.6k on Fanduel and a dirt cheap $6.2k on Draftkings. The Marlins currently have just a 3.92 implied total.

Vince Velasquez has an 8.59 ERA over the last month that’s two runs above his FIP and nearly four runs above his non-FIP estimators. He’s been hammered in road starts by the Mets and Marlins. The issue for Velasquez this year has been control (9.1 BB%) and hard contact. He’s one of five pitchers on the board with a double digit Barrels/BBE rate (10.7%). The Braves represent a tough matchup for him on a warm day in Atlanta with the wind lightly blowing out to center. They have a 103 wRC+ vs RHP, but their 10% walk rate is the highest split on the board. Velasquez has only faced 13 Braves this year without a walk, but they did get him for four runs back in June. With only one batter in the projected Altanta lineup below a 9% walk rate vs RHP this year, this is a really dangerous spot for Velasquez and presents a nice stacking opportunity. The Braves have a 5.79 implied run line that’s currently sixth best on the board. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against Velasquez this year. The top half of the Atlanta lineup, likely including Ronald Acuna (120 wRC+, .221 ISO vs RHP), Ozzie Albies (98 wRC+, .178 ISO), Freddie Freeman (159 wRC+, .291 ISO) and Josh Donaldson (137 wRC+, .280 ISO) should all have some value here.

Vince Velasquez is an inconsistent starter, who combines hard contact (board high 11.4% Barrels/BBE) with some strikeouts (25.3 K%). That upside is a bit capped though, because since moving back to the rotation in June, he’s only completed six innings once. As a result, he’s has a strikeout total above six only twice in that span. That said, we really can’t ignore the tremendous matchup and significant park upgrade tonight. The Marlins own a 75 wRC+ with an 18.6 K-BB% and 10.7 HR/FB vs RHP. The lack of power in the Miami lineup along with the big park, should help to negate Velasquez’s Barrels problem and the price tag below $8K offers value despite workload limitations. While he hasn’t completed six more than once over this 10 start span, he’s finished at least five innings in five straight starts. A quick note on the other side of this matchup. Miami is usually a pitching or nothing endeavor for DFS purposes, but the second highest Barrels/BBE mark belongs to Hector Noesi (11.1%), who’s allowed at least five runs with exactly two HRs and three walks in each of his three starts. No other pitcher on the late is above 9.6% Barrels/BBE.

As if the Dodgers need any additional help…but Kevin’s forecast calls for the wind to be blowing out to right in an already power friendly park against a pitcher who has allowed LHBs a .371 wOBA (.353 xwOBA) with just a 38.6 GB% over the last calendar year. Vince Velasquez can miss bats (25.7 K%), but struggled with many other aspects of his game (90.1 mph aEV, 12.2% Barrels/BBE, 9.4 BB%). This is a pretty sweat spot for Dodger lefties tonight. Projected are Joc Pederson (130 wRC+, .297 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Alex Verdugo (116 wRC+, .192 ISO), Cody Bellinger (177 wRC+, .323 ISO), Max Muncy (153 wRC+, .305 ISO) and Corey Seager (139 wRC+, .245 ISO) for an offense that is somehow only in the middle of the board (13th currently) at 5.19 implied runs.

Vince Velasquez has been held to smaller workloads, facing a total of 48 batters over three starts since being reinserted into the rotation, but working his way up to 84 pitches last time out. He should be able to work deeper into today’s game if circumstances call for it. He’s struck out 15 of those 48 batters and his 26.8 K% on the season is actually third best on the board tonight. However, his 44 Z-O-Swing% is also second worst, resulting in far too much hard contact and a 90.4 mph aEV and 12.9% Barrels/BBE that are second worst on the slate as well. Estimators are in line with his 4.73 ERA. Velasquez has been competent against RHBs over the last 12 months (.309 wOBA, .303 xwOBA), but LHBs have pounded him (.380 wOBA, .355 xwOBA). The Mets are expected to line up with three well above average LHBs against RHP, along with Robinson Cano (103 wRC+, .183 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), who may finally be breaking out of his season long funk with a 157 wRC+ and 56.3 Hard% over the last seven days. Jeff McNeil (145 wRC+, .160 ISO, .348 xwOBA), Michael Conforto (137 wRC+, .251 ISO) and Dominic Smith (137 wRC+, .250 ISO) are all quality bats in this projected lineup for a team implied for 4.5 runs tonight. Pete Alonso (145 wRC+, .299 ISO) is certainly stack worthy with the above batters as well.

According to a large sample of previous games, WeatherEdge (available to premium subscribers) likes offense to be up across the board tonight due to atmospheric conditions in Citi Field as the Phillies take on the Mets. Jacob Degrom is taking the hill for the Mets and while it’s not advisable to stack against him, the opposite is true for Vince Velasquez, who gets the start for the Phillies tonight after splitting time between the pen and rotation this year. Since 2018, Velasquez has a 4.60 ERA / 4.50 xFIP as a starter on the road with a 13.4% K-BB. In that split, Velasquez has been more vulnerable to lefties as he has a .330 xwOBA allowed to LHB compared to a .290 xwOBA vs. RHB. Michael Conforto (.403 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Dominic Smith (.373), Jeff McNeil (.373) and Robinson Cano (.346) are all great left-handed options tonight. Pete Alonso (.372) and JD Davis (.364) are also in play despite not having the platoon advantage. Besides Cano who is just $3.1k on Draftkings, Mets’ bats figure to be contrarian tonight despite a decent 4.94 implied total and they are a good way to differentiate on this slate. If you want to get super contrarian and gain leverage on the field, you could roster a few Phillies’ bats vs. Degrom as he will likely be the heaviest owned SP by a wide margin, though it is certainly not a high probability play as the Phillies currently have just 3.56 implied runs.