Farmers Insurance Open Preview & DraftKings Picks

Brooks Koepka capped off his come from behind victory at the Waste Management Phoenix Open with a round of 5-under par on Sunday for his first PGA Tour victory. This week the tour heads to San Diego for this week’s Farmers Insurance Open.

Event Preview

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There are plenty of storylines ahead of this week’s Farmers Insurance Open. Phil Mickelson is trying to shake off the rust and recover his past form. Dustin Johnson is in the field for the first time since testing positive for cocaine. Patrick Reed is being accused of cheating in college. And finally, Tiger Woods, who is an eight-time winner at Torrey Pines, will look to bounce back after finishing dead last in last week’s Phoenix Open.

Much like the Humana Challenge a few weeks back, the Farmers Insurance Open will take place on multiple courses. The two courses this week are the Torrey Pines South and North courses. The South Course is the more difficult of the two, measuring close to 7,700 yards. Over the last ten years, this course has played nearly a stroke and a half over par per round. The North Course is the easier track of the two, measuring just over 7,000 yards. Historically, it has played nearly four strokes lower than it’s counterpart.

Each player will take his turn on each course before the cut is made, which means there is no benefit to targeting players that start on one course or the other. Torrey Pines is a course that requires length, precision, and an ability to make up for mistakes. Distance is a premium here, but you have to be able to find the fairway as well. Total driving is high on my list of statistics to target this week. Scrambling will also play a big role, as these greens are tough to hit. And finally, Par 5 scoring is a must if you want to contend at Torrey Pines.


Key Statistics for the Week

1) Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
2) Strokes Gained: Putting
3) Total Driving
4) Scrambling
5) Par 5 Scoring


Rickie Fowler: $11200

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Odds to Win: 24.4
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 48
Strokes Gained: Putting: 37
Total Driving: 42
Scrambling: 17
Par 5 Scoring: 15

Analysis: Fowler is not the favorite this week, but he has all the necessary skills to contend this week. He is ranked in the top 50 in all five of the key statistics this week. He also has a terrific track record at this event, posting four Top-20 finishes in five tries. Fowler struggled here last year, but that was in the middle of a swing change. Shortly after that, he went on his incredible run.


Brandt Snedeker: $10400

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Odds to Win: 63.9
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 73
Strokes Gained: Putting: 27
Total Driving: 95
Scrambling: 66
Par 5 Scoring: 61

Analysis: The trends are converging for a strong week from Sneds. He already has three Top-10 finishes this season, including a T-10th finish at the Phoenix Open last week. He is this week’s “Horse for the Course” as he has had four Top-10 finishes here in his last five tries, including a victory here in 2012. If his putter gets hot, he may be in contention on Sunday.


Bill Haas: $9800

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Odds to Win: 30.3
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 17
Strokes Gained: Putting: 68
Total Driving: 36
Scrambling: 43
Par 5 Scoring: 28

Analysis: Haas had a predictable letdown last week, after he won the Humana Challenge the week before. It’s hard to follow up a win on tour. Haas is in a great spot to bounce back this week at Torrey Pines. He has made the cut here in nine out of ten tries, posting three Top-10 and another three Top-20 finishes. His stats also match up with this course and he’s much cheaper than the likes of Spieth, Day, and Walker.


Keegan Bradley: $8300

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Odds to Win: 44.5
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 29
Strokes Gained: Putting: 47
Total Driving: 8
Scrambling: 14
Par 5 Scoring: 98

Analysis:

The only area of Keegan’s game that doesn’t fit this event is his Par 5 scoring, which is a bit of a surprise considering how long he is off the tee. Other than that, the rest of his stats all fit nicely for Torrey Pines. He has had success at this event (three Top-25 finishes in his last four tries) and he’s coming off of strong final round at the Phoenix Open. At $8,300, he will be a staple across my lineups this week.


Brendan Steele: $7600

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Odds to Win: 63.9
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 59
Strokes Gained: Putting: 72
Total Driving: 48
Scrambling: 67
Par 5 Scoring: 52

Analysis: It’s strange, but Steele has now made my column in three consecutive weeks. He is off to a strong start this season, making all six cuts and only finishing outside of the Top-37 one time. Steele is not great in any one area, but he’s long off the tee, he’s a serviceable putter, and a decent scrambler. He has also made the cut here in three of his last four tries.


Scott Piercy: $7200

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Odds to Win: 63.9
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 32
Strokes Gained: Putting: 110
Total Driving: 33
Scrambling: 32
Par 5 Scoring: 53

Analysis: Piercy will fly under the radar this week. Recency bias will make people gravitate to other options in his price range. Don’t let his missed cut last week fool you. He had a bad round in some terrible weather. That’s something I can forgive. He should bounce back this week at Torrey Pines. He has two Top-20 finishes in his last three tries at this event and had been playing some terrific golf before the Phoenix Open.


Charles Howell III: $6900

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Odds to Win: 63.9
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 30
Strokes Gained: Putting: 93
Total Driving: 95
Scrambling: 30
Par 5 Scoring: 7

Analysis: I warned you that Howell would be a regular feature in my PGA column. He hasn’t exactly lit the scoreboard on fire in recent weeks, but he continues to make cuts, which is all we can ask for a player at his price point. His stats match these courses perfectly, especially his Par 5 scoring. Howell has finished in the Top-43 in each of his last five tries at this event and makes a strong play at only $6,900.


John Senden: $6800

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Odds to Win: 63.9
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 62
Strokes Gained: Putting: 13
Total Driving: 49
Scrambling: 49
Par 5 Scoring: 10

Analysis: Much like Piercy, the masses will overlook Senden this week after he missed the cut in his last event. There is no need for it though, as he is ranked in the Top-62 in each of the five main statistics this week. Senden is solid off the tee, he’s coming off of a career year in strokes gained putting, and he can take advantage of the Par 5’s. He’s also no stranger when it comes to competing with the big names in golf.


Author’s Note: The stats listed are from the 2013-14 season. The sample size from the 2014-15 season is still relatively small.

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious