Post Count: | 187 |
Member Since: | August 25th, 2015 |
Last Visit: | May 2nd, 2020 |
Site | Sport | Date | Buy In | Rank | Points |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
DraftKings | MMA | May 15th, 2021 | $25.00 | 6900 / 36600 | 11.7 |
DraftKings | MMA | Mar 20th, 2021 | $3.00 | 89 / 3905 | 4.64 |
DraftKings | MMA | Mar 20th, 2021 | $1.00 | 317 / 11796 | 2.52 |
DraftKings | MMA | Mar 20th, 2021 | $15.00 | 168 / 7357 | 11.7 |
DraftKings | MMA | Jan 16th, 2021 | $15.00 | 4643 / 22084 | 8.55 |
DraftKings | MMA | Jan 16th, 2021 | $15.00 | 4643 / 22084 | 8.55 |
DraftKings | MMA | Nov 21st, 2020 | $20.00 | 1425 / 35744 | 12.65 |
DraftKings | MMA | Nov 7th, 2020 | $18.00 | 3587 / 26143 | 9.65 |
Site | Sport | Date | Buy In | Rank | Points |
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DraftKings | PGA | Jul 6th, 2017 | $5.00 | 1 / 2352 | 159.64 |
DraftKings | PGA | Jul 6th, 2017 | $12.00 | 7 / 2890 | 54.29 |
DraftKings | PGA | Jul 6th, 2017 | $4.00 | 89 / 66019 | 28.23 |
DraftKings | MMA | Nov 21st, 2020 | $20.00 | 1425 / 35744 | 12.65 |
DraftKings | MMA | May 15th, 2021 | $25.00 | 6900 / 36600 | 11.70 |
DraftKings | MMA | Mar 20th, 2021 | $15.00 | 168 / 7357 | 11.70 |
DraftKings | MMA | Nov 7th, 2020 | $18.00 | 3587 / 26143 | 9.65 |
DraftKings | MMA | Jul 25th, 2020 | $15.00 | 6630 / 39215 | 8.55 |
I wonder if there will be overlay and/or empty lineups due to people thinking the fights are on Saturday instead of tomorrow. Read More
Oof. That main event cost me A Lot. Oh well, I still broke out even overall but it would have been real nice to have a H2H for the championship ticket worth 2k. Read More
You guys... Just checking in for the first time cause I'm out for a friends birthday. If Bobby knuckles wins, I tie with 1 other person for a championship ticket! Read More
+1Yeah, in my opinion, the best chance of getting a top-notch lineup for a tournament play will be to choose both Tuivasa and Pitolo, then Whittaker/Izzy, and then trying to fit in 3 live dogs into this lineup. Unfortunately, those first 2 take up quite a bi... Read More
Truce (after I say the following), and yes this is all super neat. Math is best understood as a set of axioms (things you assume to be true), and then using logic to deduce things from there. Probability is a subset of math and is no different. Given some ... Read More
"The result (product) for the entire fight will be positive (i.e. greater than zero), meaning that no matter how bad your lineup (i.e. how bad your odds) it is not odds-maker impossible (or in reality impossible) that your lineup is 6/6" <-- This is correct, but more importantly, also true for each set of 11 winners. Each of the 2048 sets has a non-zero probability, the sum of all 2048 of them equals to 1, and I'm claiming that the probabilities of the sets of 11 winners, of which you can't get a valid lineup, comes out to around 3% this time. I need to draw a huge exception with the following quote as it related to our conversation: "On the other hand, real math (the difference between math and statistics (with basis in probability) is that the correct math is always right. In statistics, you will always need to accept variance …. I.e. you can’t prove right or wrong … just what is most likely." I TA'd a probability course and this was actually a common sentiment with regards to homework or exam problems. Often times people would throw up their hands and say that the problem doesn't have an explicit real answer because everything is probabilistic. BUT, probability (combined with calculus) gives us the tools to answer well defined questions. For example, the question "What is the expected number of flips of a fair coin until you get 2 Heads in a row" is a well-defined question with a real answer (the answer is 6 and it is a fun problem to try and solve). Yes, it is possible that it can happen after 2 flips, or 3 flips, or a million flips, but the expected value is 6. Similarly, with us, anything can happen, but we have probabilities on individual events so we can actually come up with real answers to real well-defined questions, such as mine. *Simple Example:* Let's say there are 3 fights on the card, and you are supposed to pick 2 fighters for your lineup. Here are the odds for each: Fighter 1A (0.9) vs. Fighter 1B (0.1) Fighter 2A (0.8) vs. Fighter 2B (0.2) Fighter 3A (0.7) vs. Fighter 2C (0.3) Now, let's say that ALL possible combinations of 2 fighters meets the salary limit, EXCEPT the lineups of (Fighter 1A, Fighter 2A), (Fighter 1A, Fighter 3A), and (Fighter 2A, Fighter 3A). (basically for this simple example, you can't pick 2 favorites). The question is, (think back to the weatherman predicting the rain example) what % chance is there that the fights result in a scenario where it would have been impossible to pick 2/2 winners. The correct answer, for this simplified event, is that the only scenario in which it would have been impossible to get 2/2 winners is if all 3 favorites win, and that has probability (0.9)(0.8)(0.7) = 50.4% chance of happening (again, we are assuming 5Dimes to be more or less reflective of real-life, for good reason). Now, if we attempt to do it your way, we have (3 choose 2) = 3 lineups that will be 2/2 (for any given event with no ties, etc.). Without salary constraints, we have 12 possible no-stack lineups. And with salary constraints we have 9. (These correspond to the bolded number you had a few posts back). Now your last step is a logic step said that the only way that the event ends up with no possible 2/2 winners is if the 3 impossible lineups all fall under the 12-9=3 lineups. This logic is true, but this combinatorial setup does not get you any closer to answering the question with a real number, i.e., 50.4%. --- Now to answer your questions. (I'm going to be brief since rotogrinders deleted this last time. At least I'll learn to copy and paste before submitting). 1. This particular question does not matter with regards to picking this week's lineup. However, the critical thinking skills and probability techniques relevant to this conversation can be useful in the future depending on what one wants to do. 2. In general, my approach to the model will be better than your approach in the long run, since mine is more sophisticated and mine actually encompasses yours, but setting some parameters to 0 and tuning it down, essentially. (still need to watch out for overfitting, but I'm doing some other complicated things). But, in the long run we're all dead so whatever. edit: okay I think I finally got it all there. I'm not gonna count this as slacking off at work considering I'm a data scientist so this is all relevant :)
Cool cool cool cool. Okay first off, major props for recognizing that the odds-makers don't try to predict the actual outcome, but instead they normally want equal weighted action on both sides so that they make money either way. This is something that a l... Read More
It's awesome that you're self-taught, and I'll try to clear up places where I think the confusion may lie. Also, lol at your allegory at the end, but that has nothing to do with the situation at hand. The basic premise is what are the odds that the 11-win... Read More
Yeah, we're answering completely different questions. First, for mine, we need to look at the event as a whole -- permuting individual lineups just complicates the matter and actually makes the answer wrong. Second, I'm explicitly including the 5Dimes odds... Read More
@gje627 maybe you can check my work, but according to the current Vegas odds and the DK pricing, there is roughly a 3% chance that it will be impossible to roster a lineup with 6 winning fighters. I think the odds are usually around 1%, but with only 11 fi... Read More
Site | Screen Name |
DraftKings | Driven2ThEdge |
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