It took five weeks but the scoring finally arrived in the Alliance of American Football (AAF). Heading into Week 5, the under had cashed in 12 of the first 16 games. Last week, scoring erupted with the four games averaging 48.5 points and all going over the betting total. Will the trend of high scoring games continue in Week 6? Can anyone stop the Orlando Apollos? We have the answers with our AAF game picks, future odds and power rankings.
All lines/odds referenced herein are from the Westgate.
Editor’s Note: Get in one the action and play fantasy AAF on PrizePicks this weekend.
Week 6 Power Rankings and Future Odds
Orlando Apollos (Even)
San Diego Fleet (+600)
San Antonio Commandeers (+400)
Birmingham Iron (+800)
Atlanta Legends (+2500)
Salt Lake Stallions (+2500)
Arizona Hotshots (+600)
Memphis Express (+6000)
Overview: The Apollos continue to dominate after an easy 31-14 win over Birmingham last week. Orlando’s offense gets all the love but its defense may be the AAF’s best as well. The Apollos are down to even money to win the AAF’s inaugural championship after opening the season +500. They are clearly the class of the league and it may take an injury to quarterback Garrett Gilbert to prevent Orlando from winning the title.
Most of the teams after Orlando look like pretenders with only San Diego and San Antonio playing well enough midway through the season to offer a serious challenge. I put San Diego second because I believe they have the second-best overall team. The loss of quarterback Philip Nelson hurts but Mike Bercovici played well in relief last week, completing 22 of 43 passes for 304 yards, one touchdown and an interception. It was typical Bercovici. At times he looked great and at other times he made you pull your hair out. If Bercovici can give the Fleet more good than bad, San Diego is the biggest threat to Orlando.
San Antonio deserves a ton of credit for turning its season around after two-straight ugly losses. The Commanders are coming off road wins over Birmingham and Arizona. San Antonio heads to the road for the third straight week to face surging Atlanta. I’m not a huge fan of quarterback Logan Woodside but he did play well last week in the win over Arizona. If Woodside can eliminate some of the mistakes that plagued him early in the year, San Antonio will be a factor. The Commanders are now the second betting favorite at +400 after reaching +1200 three weeks ago.
Beyond those three teams, it’s really a crapshoot. Birmingham’s offense is awful and the Iron defense has gotten run over the last two games. One interesting team is Atlanta. The Legends have now won two straight since Aaron Murray replaced Matt Simms at quarterback. You really have to wonder what some of these coaches are doing. Simms and Christian Hackenberg were each allowed to start three games. They went a combined 0-6.
Last week, Murray completed 27 of 43 passes for 306 yards and a touchdown in the Legends’ last second win over Memphis. Atlanta has a chance to improve to 3-3 this week when it hosts San Antonio. Quarterback play is huge in the AAF because there are only a couple good ones and Murray looks like one of them. The Legends are the best value on the board right now at +2500.
I pointed out last week that oddsmakers are in love with Arizona. The Hotshots lost their third straight game but are still +600 to win the AAF championship. I’m not sure what oddsmakers are seeing with this team. After playing well in its opener against Salt Lake, Arizona beat the Hackenberg-led Express by two points and lost the next three games. It’s time to face the reality that Arizona isn’t a good team. The Hotshots are headed for their fourth straight loss when they visit Orlando Saturday.
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Week 6 Matchups, Lines and Picks
Memphis at Salt Lake
Line: Salt Lake -8, 39.5
I’m not sure what Salt Lake has done to be an 8-point favorite over any team in the AFF but that’s too many points. The Stallions are tough to watch at times on offense, as quarterback Josh Woodrum has been a major letdown. Since Zach Mettenberger took over at quarterback, Memphis almost came back to upset Orlando on the road, defeated San Diego and lost in the final seconds to surging Atlanta. Memphis’ defense will keep them in this game and I’ll call for an outright Express win here in what should be a lower scoring game. Take the points.
Pick: Memphis +8, Under 39.5
Arizona at Orlando
Line: Orlando -8.5, 43
I actually think there is some value here with Orlando at home. As I stated above, oddsmakers still like Arizona even though the Hotshots haven’t played well since Week 1. Now they have quarterback issues with John Wolford struggling. That’s not a great recipe for success when facing the league’s best team on the road. I’ll take the Apollos to get another comfortable win over struggling Arizona. I also like the over here as Orlando should score 30+ points.
Pick: Orlando -8.5, Over 43
San Antonio at Atlanta
Line: Atlanta -1.5, 40
This is the toughest game of the week to handicap because both teams enter playing well, each riding a two-game winning streak. I lean to Atlanta for two reasons. First, San Antonio is playing its third straight road game. While the Commanders won the first two, it’s difficult for a team in any sport to win three consecutive games on the road. Second, the Legends have the quarterback edge with Aaron Murray. He’s making plays with both his arm and legs. In what should be a highly competitive game, I’ll side with Atlanta at home and the over with Murray under center.
Pick: Atlanta -1.5, Over 40
Birmingham at San Diego
Line: San Diego -6, 35.5
Birmingham is fading fast and now we don’t even know who will start at quarterback this week. Backup Keith Price replaced Luis Perez last week and while he did some good things, Price also had four easy interceptions dropped. One trend in the AAF is to fade teams that still aren’t settled at quarterback. That’s Birmingham and now the Iron defense is struggling to stop the run. San Diego should cover this number if Bercovici doesn’t make too many mistakes that result in good field position for Birmingham’s offense.
Pick: San Diego -6