Bowl season is underway and fans may notice something missing: key players. More than a dozen projected NFL prospects have decided to sit out their team’s bowl games this year to avoid risking injury before the 2019 NFL Draft in April. What became a national conversation when a pair of high-profile players sitting out two years ago has turned into a growing trend this bowl season.

In 2016, running backs Leonard Fournette of LSU and Christian McCaffrey of Stanford were amost universally criticized and maligend as selfish at that time when they opted to protect their assets, or bodies, rather than play in their teams’ respective bowl games.

The “business decision” didn’t impact either player’s draft stock as some predicted: at a time when pass-first NFL offenses have devalued running backs, both were selected in the top-10. The Jacksonville Jaguars selected Fournette fourth overall and McCaffrey went eighth to the Carolina Panthers.

Decisions impacting betting lines

This season key players on both sides of the ball have announced they won’t suit up for bowl games, foremost quarterback Will Grier for the No. 16-ranked West Virginia Mountaineers. The absence of certain players can impact the point spread and in Grier’s case, quite significantly.

West Virginia opened as a 7.5-point favorite over Syracuse in Camping World Bowl on Dec. 28. When Grier announced he wouldn’t be playing, the number quickly dropped to 3.5. As of Dec. 17, West Virginia was a slim 1.5 favorite in the game.

“When we made the line, the assumption was he would be playing,” said Jason Simbal, Vice President of Risk Management at CG Technology. “We didn’t have an idea yet that he wasn’t going to play. We didn’t have the high number up that long. We were at -7 and we went down to -6.5 then -6. After that we knew Grier wasn’t playing and dropped it to -3. That wasn’t enough. Since then it’s been pretty much all Syracuse action to where they finally took it down to -1.5.”

From a gambling or line-movement vantage, Grier is the most meaningful player sitting out this bowl season. Few players will move a line six points. Grier was 4/1 to win the Heisman Trophy back in October and he’s helped lead West Virginia to 42.3 points per game, ninth most in FBS. He finished the season with 3.864 yards and 37 touchdown passes. Sophomore Miami transfer Jack Allison, who has thrown 10 career passes, will likely start in Grier’s stead against Syracuse.

It’s become overshadowed by the absence of Grier, but the Mountaineers will also miss the services another key player come late December. Starting left tackle Yodny Cajuste has also decided to skip the game to prepare for the NFL Draft. The absences of both players could make Syracuse the betting favorite by kickoff.

“I think it’s possible Syracuse is favored, maybe a push,” Simbal said.  “[Bettors] are also on the Syracuse moneyline. It’s only +105 on the moneyline because we’ve taken so many bets. I think it’s certainly possible they move to the favorite.”

“The other thing is the total. The total prior to Grier’s announcement was 74.5. Just like Syracuse, bettors were on the UNDER before the announcement. It’s all the way down to 68 now.”

Grier has had the biggest impact on the point spread but he’s a borderline first-round pick in April’s draft. ESPN’s Mel Kiper has Grier ranked as his fifth draft-eligible quarterback and many analysts predict he’ll go in the late-first/early-second round range. Two projected top-10 picks in the upcoming draft — Houston defensive end Ed Oliver and LSU defensive back Greedy Williams — have also decided to sit out their team’s bowl games.

Oliver is considered one of the top prospects in this year’s draft class and his loss could be a big factor against run-heavy Army in the Armed Forces Bowl. The Cougars were 63rd in the nation versus the run and got gashed for 349 yards by Navy’s option attack earlier this season with Oliver on the field.

Despite Oliver’s status as one the nation’s top defensive players, his absence didn’t impact the spread the same way Grier has with West Virginia.  Army opened as a 3-point favorite over Houston and it’s now up to 3.5. However, the slight movement give Houston the hook didn’t happen until recently, two weeks after Oliver announced he wouldn’t be playing.

“It’s really tough for position players to move the number, especially in the lower-tier bowls,” Simbal said. “Obviously, Ed Oliver is a great player and he’s going to be a top pick for sure. But the general bettor isn’t going to “decide to bet or not bet solely on him.”

You know for a fact that when a guy like Will Grier is going to be out, there will be a big move on the total and the side,”  Simbal added.”We’ll actually take that game down, let the news come in, take our time and re-post it. For a player like Ed Oliver, we don’t even take the game down. We’ll just lower the limits and if people want to bet it and make an opinion, we’ll adjust the line accordingly.”

Risk outweighs the reward for some players

Then there’s Ohio State defensive end Nick Bosa. Remember him? Bosa went even further than just sitting out a bowl game. He withdrew from school back in October to rehab an injured core muscle ahead of the draft.

Bosa may have been healthy enough to return for a bowl game and remember, Ohio State had a chance to get into the College Football Playoffs. However, despite not playing a down of football in three months, Bosa is still the heavy favorite to be the first player selected in April. For Bosa, the risk simply outweighed the reward.

One thing Grier, Oliver, Bosa and the rest of the players sitting out have in common is they aren’t facing the fierce backlash Fournette and McCaffrey did two years ago. Most fans acknowledge the financial upside exceeds the potental downside for players who have already done enough to cement their NFL resume.

Cautionary tales: Smith and Butt 

The downside is an injury that drops them into a lower position draft position or, at worst, leaves them as an undrafted free agent. In two years, sitting out has gone from controversial to generally accepted within the sport. A big reason for many people being more understanding is what happened to Notre Dame linebacker Jaylon Smith and Michigan tight end Jake Butt.

At the end of the 2015 season, Smith was projected as a high first-round draft pick. He was in line to sign a rookie contract worth more than $20 million. Smith played in the Fiesta Bowl against Ohio State and tore two knee ligaments. He fell to the second round, where the Dallas Cowboys took him with the 34th pick. He signed for $6.5 million.

Smith believes his situation changed the way college football players view participating in bowl games.

“My situation has affected college football forever,” Smith told Sports Illustrated. “I’m going in the history books.”

Smith has beaten the odds and fully recovered from his devastating injury. After missing his entire rookie season with the Cowboys and an inconsistent 2017, Smith has turned into one of the NFL’s top players at his position.

Butt has not been as fortunate.

One year after Smith’s injury, Butt tore his ACL during the Orange Bowl on New Year’s Day, a non-playoff game between Michigan and Florida State. It was the second time Butt tore his ACL in the same leg.

Butt had been a projected high-Day 2 pick but fell to the fifth round because of his injury. He missed his entire rookie season while rehabbing. Unlike Smith, Butt has not eye regained his pre-injury form. Butt is currently on IR again after tearing the ACL in his opposite leg during a walkthrough in late September.

Not everyone is following the trend

Both Smith and Butt have said they’re glad current collegiate players are considering what happened to them when making the decision whether or not to play in a bowl game. Keep in mind though, while players like Grier get the headlines, most college kids still opt to participate in bowl games.

Ohio State quarterback Dwayne Haskins, a Heisman trophy finalist and projected future first-round pick, never considered sitting out Ohio State’s Rose Bowl game against Washington on New Year’s Day.

“Being the quarterback, it’s your job to lead the team,” Haskins said when announcing his decision, “For you to say that you don’t want to play, that means you’re not about the team, you’re not about winning or losing, you just want to get out while you can.”

The Buckeyes are a 7-point favorite over Washington in Urban Meyer’s last game at Ohio State. That line would look dramatically different if Haskins had chosen to sit out the Rose Bowl.

“Haskins is a little bit different because the Rose Bowl still has some esteem,” Simbal said. “If Justin Herbert gets hurt against Michigan State in the ‘whatever the heck bowl,’ it’s a great example of why players wouldn’t risk it. It hasn’t happened yet but it will someday.”

There is no objectively correct decision when it comes to future NFL Draft picks playing or sitting out bowl games. But it isn’t debatable that the trend of big-name players sitting out is on the rise. More players are betting on themselves rather than risk injury in non-CFB Playoffs bowl games.

Don’t expect that trend to change any time soon, which means more risk for both oddsmakers and bettors.

“It’s kind of interesting because these decisions also hurt bettors,” Simbal said. “A lot of times when we come out with these bowl games, it’s the sharps that want to attack them right away. You put the lines up on 35 or 40 bowl games and the sharps want to get their bets in on lines they think are off. It goes both ways with risk to the bettor and the sports book.”

Finally, a more complete list of name players sitting out bowl games this season:

Offense:

Will Grier, QB West Virginia

Yodny Cajuste, OT West Virginia 

Bryce Love, RB Stanford: Stanford’s leading rusher announced on Tuesday that he will be skipping the Sun Bowl to prepare for the NFL Draft. He finishes his college career with 3,866 yards and 30 touchdowns. 

Darrell Henderson, RB Memphis: Memphis’ leading rusher won’t play against Wake Forest in the Birmingham Bowl. He ran for 1,909 yards on 8.9 yards per carry with 22 touchdowns this season.

Deebo Samuel, WR South Carolina: Samuel caught 11 touchdowns this season and led the Gamecocks with 62 receptions. He’ll sit out the Belk Bowl versus Virginia.

Justice Hill, RB Oklahoma State: Hill is a three-year starter for the Cowboys averaging 5.5 yards per carry in his career. He missed the last two games because with a rib injury and will sit out the Liberty Bowl against Missouri as he prepares for the NFL Draft.

Noah Fant, TE Iowa: Fant is quarterback Nate Stanley’s top weapon and arguably the No. 1 tight end in this year’s draft. He’ll sit out the Outback Bowl versus Mississippi State.

Kelvin Harmon WR, NC State: Harmon led the ACC in receiving yards. He’s a big loss for NC State when they face Texas A&M in the Gator Bowl.

N’Keal Harry, WR Arizona State: Harry is projected to be a high draft pick after catching 213 passes for 2,889 yards in the last three seasons. The Sun Devils lost 31-20 to Fresno State as 5-point underdogs in the Las Vegas Bowl without Harry.

Defense:

Ed Oliver, DL Houston

Rashan Gary, DL Michigan: The No. 1 recruit in the class of 2016 will miss the Peach Bowl versus Florida. Gary has 3.5 sacks and 38 tackles in nine games this season and will enter the NFL Draft.

Greedy Williams, DB LSU: Williams had eight interceptions and 19 passes defended in two years at LSU. Considered one of the top corners in this year’s draft, Williams will sit out the Fiesta Bowl against undefeated Central Florida.