Kalshi Election Markets: NYC Mayoral Race & Other Election Prediction Markets
Kalshi election markets let you trade election outcomes with simple yes/no event contracts. Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn’t, and the live price is the crowd’s implied probability.
Below we walk through how it works and what’s moving now in NYC and California.
Popular Kalshi Election Markets Right Now
Washington is always moving, and a handful of seats can change what happens next. That’s why traders watch congressional and state races side by side.
On Kalshi, you can open or close positions right up to election day, and final resolution follows official election results. Close races can take more than a day to settle, so some traders sell early to lock in profit if the price moves their way.
Treat this like a financial market, not gambling. Use news, polling, and contract volume to guide decisions.
Kalshi’s NYC Mayor Market: Where the Price Sits
The New York mayor market has not only momentum, but dollars behind it, with total exchange volume around $48 million and growing.
After the final debate, Zohran Mamdani’s implied probability hovered near the high-80s for “Yes”* (prices represent crowd conviction at a point in time). With a few days left, fresh news can still change the tape.
*Data pulled on Kalshi as of November 4, 2025.
Other NYC Prediction Markets
Nothing else in New York is moving similar size right now, which is why the mayoral race stays front and center on the platform.
2026 California Gubernatorial Election
California is a longer runway, and while that election will not take place until 2026, traders care because it ties into the presidential election that follows.
Since California has term limits for governors, Governor Gavin Newsom cannot run again. That leaves the door open for a chorus of successors
Early prices have Alex Padilla around 23%, Stephen Cloobeck near 17%, and Katie Porter around 15% in a 12-candidate field**. It’s one of the most popular elections with steady attention ahead of 2026.
**Data pulled on Kalshi as of November 4, 2025.
Other California-Related Elections to Watch
Among California elections, keep an eye on congressional districts 3 and 41 and the Los Angeles mayoral race. Outcomes there will get attention in Washington.
How Election Markets Work at Kalshi
Kalshi is a prediction exchange for markets such as elections where orders match on an exchange, not a sportsbook.
Quotes are in cents per contract, and listings span federal elections and local races, including the NYC mayor elections and the California governor election in 2026. Availability can vary by state regulations, so check what’s posted in your state before you get started.
Note that while political betting isn’t legal in the US, Kalshi is a workaround as it’s a financial exchange regulated by the CFTC.
How to Trade on Election Results at Kalshi
Here’s how to trade on election results at Kalshi:
- Sign up for an account using the Kalshi referral code.
- Navigate to the “Politics” tab within the app or desktop platform.
- Find the market you want to trade on.
- Select an event and take the “Yes” or “No” on it.
- Buy the contract, and wait for it to conclude or sell it early.
One tip? Think like a trader. If the price moves in your favor, you can sell to lock in profit rather than holding through final certification. You are the one making the decision, not an interactive broker working a ticket for you.
Overview and Recent Timeline
Interest in Kalshi spiked fast.
After a lower court decision in late 2024, futures contracts on political events opened up to everyday people, and the appeals court path ended when the agency dropped its appeal in early 2025.
Since then, trading volume has climbed (even higher than Polymarket’s!) as more users turned to prediction markets not just for headlines but for prices that move with real money. Much of the legal conversation also touched on market integrity and the public interest.
On Kalshi’s prediction exchange, you can trade contracts tied to federal elections and big races. Think the White House, control of Congress, statewide governorships, and other election outcomes that revolve around election day. Prices are just probabilities in shorthand. Traders buy or sell based on news, polling, and tape-reading details like order flow and volume.
For context, the presidential election drew about $100 million in contracts, while the NYC mayor race sits near $48 million on its own (as of November 4, 2025). Add New Jersey, Virginia, and California gubernatorial markets and you are approaching $60 million for this cycle.
The takeaway is simple: markets are active, and interest keeps building.
How Do Kalshi Election Odds Work?
Odds are just prices set by supply and demand. After the last New York mayor debate, Mamdani’s implied probability slipped from about 93% to around 90% as orders hit the book.
News and polls can move odds, and so can a large buy or sell. That is not market manipulation by itself—it’s how two-sided markets work when traders can buy as many contracts as they want.
One thing to keep in mind? Contracts are binary. You get simple “Yes” or “No” where, for example, if you buy 100 “Yes” at 90 cents and a winning outcome settles at $100, you get a net profit of $10. If it loses, the payout is $0.
For instance, Andrew Cuomo sits second in probability at about 11%, which would be an $11 entry for a $100 settlement if he wins.
2025 vs 2024: What Changed in the Election Markets
This year closes with a noticeable uptick in activity. The 2024 presidential election cleared roughly $100 million in contracts while the appeals timeline was still unfolding at the District of Columbia Circuit. Prices on Kalshi pointed to a Trump win even as many news polls leaned towards Kamala Harris, which pulled more attention to event contracts during the elections.
In 2025, local and state races together have generated almost two-thirds of last cycle’s presidential volume. Call it momentum or just more users getting comfortable with the product: either way, these markets are not fading.
Kalshi Election Markets FAQs
Is It Legal to Trade On Elections in the US?
Yes. A lower court decision opened the door in late 2024, and the appeal was dropped in early 2025, so Kalshi and others offer trading on election outcomes.
How Does Kalshi Set Prices or “Odds”?
Prices update with each trade on “Yes” and “No” contracts, which changes the implied probability. More buy pressure on one side raises that price, and selling can push it down.
When Do Election Markets Resolve?
Most resolve when official election results are posted or certified. Tight races can take more than 24 to 72 hours after election day.
Want to trade on markets beyond election results? Kalshi has plenty of options: