Kalshi Election Markets: 2026 Midterm Odds
Updated on 11/5/26
Kalshi election markets let you trade election outcomes through Yes/No event contracts. Each contract pays $1 if the specified outcome happens and $0 if it doesn’t. The live price reflects the market’s implied probability.
With the November 3, 2026 midterms approaching, Kalshi has markets covering control of Congress, individual Senate and House races, governorships and local elections.
Popular Kalshi Election Markets Right Now
The prices below come from Kalshi’s 2026 midterm election markets as of November 5, 2026. They’re subject to change as traders react to new polling, campaign developments and election news.
2026 Congressional Control Markets
Kalshi has separate contracts for which party will control the House and Senate after the midterms. As of November 5, 2026, traders give Democrats a 90% chance of winning the House and a 63% chance of taking the Senate.
The Senate is the closer contest according to current prices. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control.
Keep in mind a shift in expectations for just a few competitive races can move the price of a congressional-control contract, even if the outlook across most states remains unchanged.
2026 Senate and House Election Markets
Kalshi also has markets for individual congressional races, giving traders a chance to follow specific candidates rather than the overall balance of power.
Texas is one of Kalshi’s most actively traded competitive Senate contests. As of November 5, 2026, Democrat James Talarico has an implied probability of approximately 61%, compared with 39% for Republican Ken Paxton.
Other Senate prices include:
- Maine: Democrat Troy Jackson is around 56%, with Republican incumbent Susan Collins near 44%.
- Michigan: Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is at approximately 68%, compared with 32% for Republican Mike Rogers.
House markets work at the district level. In New York’s 17th Congressional District, Democrat Cait Conley is priced around 59%, against 41% for Republican incumbent Mike Lawler.
Kalshi also offers seat-count markets, where traders can take a position on how many seats each party will win without choosing an individual candidate.
2026 California Gubernatorial Election
California will elect a new governor on November 3. Gavin Newsom cannot seek another consecutive term because of term limits, leaving Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton competing to succeed him.
Becerra is heavily favored on Kalshi, with an implied probability of approximately 96%, compared with roughly 4% for Hilton as of November 5, 2026. At that price, a Yes contract on Becerra offers limited potential profit relative to what it costs, even if he wins. The full purchase price also remains at risk.
Kalshi has other California election markets, including contracts on voter turnout and the Democratic margin of victory.
Other Governor and Local Election Markets
Kalshi also lists governor markets in Nevada, where Democrat Aaron Ford faces Republican incumbent Joe Lombardo, and Georgia, where Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms faces Republican Rick Jackson.
Both races are priced considerably closer than California’s, with Kalshi classifying Georgia and Nevada as toss-ups heading into November 3.
There’s also the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral race between incumbent Karen Bass and City Councilmember Nithya Raman. As of November 5, 2026, Kalshi puts Raman at approximately 54%, compared with 46% for Bass.
How Election Markets Work at Kalshi
Kalshi works as a prediction exchange, matching election-contract orders between traders rather than acting as a sportsbook. Here, contracts are quoted in cents, with prices changing as people buy and sell.
Each market has its own rules specifying what counts as a winning outcome, how the result is verified and when settlement can happen.
How Do Kalshi Election Odds Work?
Kalshi election odds are driven by supply and demand. A Yes contract trading at 70 cents suggests an implied probability of roughly 70%, although the price you actually pay may differ from what’s displayed.
News, polling and big trades can all move prices. Those prices reflect what traders are willing to pay at a given moment, not a guarantee of how an election will turn out.
Say you buy 100 Yes contracts at 90 cents each. Your position costs $90 before fees. If the outcome happens, the contracts settle at $1 apiece, returning $100 for a gross profit of $10 before fees. If it doesn’t happen, they settle at $0, and you lose the $90 you paid, plus applicable fees.
Before placing an order, it’s also worth checking:
- Trading volume: Shows how much activity a market has attracted, though heavy trading doesn’t necessarily mean the current price is attractive. Kalshi also labels midterm markets with low trading volume.
- Bid/ask spread: The difference between what buyers are offering and what sellers are asking. A wider spread can make entering or exiting a position more expensive.
- Order-book depth: Shows how many contracts are available at different prices. If you’re placing a bigger order, it may fill across several price levels rather than entirely at the best quoted price.
- Trading fees: Kalshi charges transaction fees that can vary by market. You can check the applicable fees in the order interface before confirming a trade.
When Do Election Markets Resolve?
Even if a race is called on election night, you might have to wait for your Kalshi contract to settle. Each market follows its own rules, although some allow Kalshi to settle before the results are officially certified.
For certain US elections, Kalshi looks at race calls from eight major news organizations, including the Associated Press. If at least four agree on the outcome and none of the others disagree, the market can settle early. But if there are conflicting projections, a recount or a legal challenge, the process can take longer, potentially until the winner is sworn into office.
Since the timing depends on both the contract and how the election plays out, it’s worth checking the market’s rules, verification sources and settlement timeline before trading, especially in a close race.
How to Trade on Election Results at Kalshi
Here’s how to trade on election results at Kalshi:
- Sign up for an account using the Kalshi promo code
GRINDERS55 , complete the required identity verification and add funds to your account before placing an order. - Go to the “US Elections” category in the app or on the desktop platform, or search for a specific race.
- Find the market you want to trade on and review its prices, trading volume and contract rules.
- Choose an outcome, select Yes or No, and check the contract price and quantity.
- Place your order. Once it’s filled, you can hold your position until settlement or try to sell it earlier.
If the price moves in your favor, you may be able to sell before the final result for a profit. Check the available bids first, though, as there’s no guarantee you’ll find a buyer at your preferred price, and trading fees will reduce your proceeds.
Want to trade on markets beyond election results? Kalshi has plenty of options:
Kalshi Election Markets FAQs
Is It Legal to Trade On Elections in the US?
Kalshi offers election contracts through a CFTC-regulated exchange, following a September 2024 federal court ruling that allowed its congressional-control markets. The CFTC dropped its appeal in May 2025, although state-level legal challenges are still ongoing. Keep in mind your location and applicable restrictions may affect which markets you can access.
Who Can Trade Kalshi Election Markets?
You must be at least 18 years old, complete identity verification and meet Kalshi’s geographic eligibility requirements, which include certain countries outside the US. Kalshi also prohibits candidates, campaign staff, election officials, poll workers and other political insiders from trading on relevant election outcomes.
Is Kalshi Gambling?
Unlike a sportsbook, Kalshi matches traders buying and selling event contracts rather than taking the other side of their trades. You can still lose the money you put into a position, though, and whether certain Kalshi contracts fall under state gambling laws remains the subject of ongoing legal disputes.
Can You Follow Kalshi Election Markets Without Trading?
Yes. You can check election markets, prices and trading activity on Kalshi’s website or app without placing a trade. You’ll need an eligible, verified account if you want to buy or sell contracts.