Kalshi Government Shutdown Markets for 2025
The Kalshi Government Shutdown market has quickly become one of the most popular options on the platform. This surge in attention comes from Kalshi’s own forecast, which predicts the shutdown could last more than 40 days, stretching into mid-November.
The last major government shutdown in 2018–2019 lasted 35 days — the longest in U.S. history. With the potential to break that record, interest in Kalshi’s duration market has continued to grow since this all started on October 1.
*Editor’s note: Kalshi’s odds, percentages and markets change within the minute every day. For a precise calculation of those changes, please refer to Kalshi’s app.
Kalshi Government Shutdown Market Overview
If you’re looking to make a prediction on the length of the 2025 US government shutdown, you’ve got plenty of options to choose from on Kalshi’s government shutdown market.
Currently, you can trade outcomes on the shutdown lasting anywhere from more than 30 days to more than 70 days, with no shortage of options in between. Both the “Yes” and “No” options will showcase varying prices and probabilities throughout all the different selections.
Here’s a quick snapshot of the current statistics and probabilities:
- “More than 35 days” — listed with a 80% chance of occurring (which would make it the longest shutdown in history).
- “More than 70 days” — the highest option available, with a 17% chance of happening.
The page also features a real-time snapshot of the forecast for the length of the government shutdown. This lets you track different forecast trends over the past few months.
- For example, the shutdown was earlier predicted to last just four days in early September 2025. That prediction was clearly a low-ball, as we’re almost into record-breaking territory.
How to Trade the Kalshi Government Shutdown Contracts
| 🏛️ Kalshi’s Expected Shutdown Length | 40+ Days |
| 🔥 Kalshi Referral Code | |
| 💰 Kalshi Referral Bonus | |
| 📝 Terms & Conditions | |
| ✅ Kalshi Info Last Verified | October 29, 2025 |
If you want to put money down on the government shutdown’s timeline, you can do so with the help of the Kalshi referral code.
With Kalshi and other prediction markets, it’s all about beating expectations set from formal forecasts on different events.
To effectively predict these events, you need to buy a contract on a real-world event.
- For example, you can choose to buy a contract on the U.S. Government Shutdown lasting more than 40 days, which is currently listed at a 67% probability.
Kalshi simply allows you to choose between “Yes” or “No” on different outcomes.
- Since Kalshi is a legal trading platform, it’s different than a traditional mobile sportsbook that adheres to gambling laws.
And unlike an online sportsbook, Kalshi lets you compete against other traders on the platform rather than the oddsmakers.
- After buying a contract, you can sell it later to lock in a profit if the outcome becomes increasingly likely.
Reading Market Prices and Probabilities
Before you start trading with Kalshi, it’s essential to understand how the pricing is built into the popular prediction market platform.
- Each option next to a potential prediction will show a price number (for example, 30¢, 75¢, etc.) that indicates both potential winnings and probability.
If something is listed at 55¢, the Kalshi prediction market has indicated that there’s a 55% likelihood of that outcome.
Since each contract is essentially combined to make $1 total:
- Yes = 55¢
- No = 45¢
- The individual that correctly predicts the outcome would receive the remaining profit.
- Example: a correct Yes prediction from the example above would net the winner 45¢.
Finding value in the priced amount against the forecasted predictability percentage is essential in being successful with prediction market apps like Kalshi.
What Happens If the Government Shutdown Ends Early?
If the government shutdown ends much earlier than expected, it will have a significant effect on the prediction market landscape. For example:
- If the shutdown ends on October 29, 2025 (after 29 days), that means all contracts with 30 or more days will be incorrect.
Although this is an unlikely outcome — especially given the trader expectations — it’s important to be aware of the possibility when trading.
Market Sentiment: Insights from Kalshi Traders on the Shutdown
As the numbers suggest the government shutdown lasting around 43 days, it appears that Kalshi users are growing increasingly convinced that this could be the longest shutdown in the history of the United States.
Kalshi traders technically set this market, with the total number of predicted shutdown days increasing alongside more contracts being purchased.
With trader expectations increasing, the graph on the Kalshi platform shows a steady increase in the projected shutdown length.
Kalshi’s Role in Modern Prediction Markets
Kalshi is one of the most well-known prediction market apps available right now. Its main competition comes from sites such as Polymarket.
While each of these apps are popular with users, the main difference comes in cryptocurrency focus, where Polymarket has revolved its platform around crypto, unlike Kalshi.
Both prediction market apps are approved by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Why Kalshi’s Government Shutdown Market Has Gained Attention
The current shutdown of the U.S. government has been top news lately, partially due to the fact that over a million federal employees are currently working without being paid or furloughed.
However, the ongoing story has also been making news because the prediction market Kalshi has forecasted that it’s likely to last over 40 days, through November 10, 2025.
Key details to note:
- This would mark the longest government shutdown since 2019.
- The 2019 shutdown lasted 35 days, from December 22, 2018 to January 25, 2019.
Any further market moves could potentially foretell a shorter or longer period for the shutdown.
Responsible Participation in Kalshi Markets
Prediction market bettors should always make sure to trade responsibly. When you’re risking your own money, it’s vital to know your limits and fully understand the terms of different prediction contracts.
Try to steer clear of speculative behavior and high-risk, short-term gains.
Kalshi offers its own tools for responsible trading, such as: trading breaks, a personalized funding cap, and voluntary opt-out.
Kalshi Government Shutdown FAQs
The Kalshi Government Shutdown has sparked lots of questions from both casual and experienced prediction market users. Below, you’ll find FAQs about the latest market updates, current contract prices, and other government-related predictions on Kalshi.
Is the Kalshi Government Shutdown market still active?
Yes! The length of the U.S. Government Shutdown is one of the many politically related markets available with Kalshi. While the numbers will fluctuate as more news comes out, you can expect the market to close once the 2025 government shutdown ends.
What are the current Kalshi Government Shutdown contract prices?
While the numbers are subject to change at any time, the contract prices currently indicate that the government shutdown will last for around 43 days. Kalshi currently prices the shutdown lasting over 40 days at 65 cents per share, and under 40 days at 36 cents per share. You can follow the shifting numbers directly through the Kalshi app.
How do Kalshi users make or lose money on shutdown contracts?
Kalshi users can win money on contracts that correctly predict the length of the United States government shutdown. So, if someone predicted “Yes” that the shutdown would last over 40 days and it ends after 42, that person would successfully settle their prediction. Meanwhile, anyone who predicted “No” will not receive any funds.
Are there fees for trading government shutdown contracts on Kalshi?
Yes, you can expect to pay fees to Kalshi while trading contracts. These fees are based on the expected profits that can be collected from a Kalshi contract. The fees can also differ from market to market, and you will receive a final confirmation of the amount while submitting your prediction contract on Kalshi.
What other government-related markets does Kalshi offer?
Kalshi offers a wide variety of governmental prediction markets, such as the Democratic Nominee in 2028, the winner of the 2025 New York mayoral race, and the winning party of the 2025 Virginia gubernatorial race. Outside of the U.S., Kalshi also has markets available for topics such as the winners of the Irish and Bolivian Presidential Elections.
If you want to take a break from politics and trade on more fun markets at Kalshi, check out the following guides: