Kalshi Government Shutdown Markets for 2025
The Kalshi Government Shutdown market quickly became one of the most popular options on the platform in the fall of 2025. This surge in attention came from Kalshi’s own forecast, which predicted the shutdown could last more than 40 days, stretching into mid-November.
Ultimately, the shutdown ended late on November 12th as President Trump signed a revised appropriations bill from the House and Senate.
Before the 2025 event, the last major government shutdown in 2018–2019 lasted 35 days — then the longest in U.S. history. As that record seemed likely to be broken in the fall of 2025, interest in Kalshi’s duration market continued to grow since it all started on October 1.
*Editor’s note: Kalshi’s odds, percentages and markets change within the minute every day. For a precise calculation of those changes, please refer to Kalshi’s app.
Kalshi Government Shutdown Market Overview
If you’re looking to make a Kalshi prediction on the length of the 2025 US government shutdown, you’re too late: the US government is back open.
When the government was shut down, you could have traded on Kalshi for outcomes on the shutdown lasting anywhere from more than 34 days to more than 80 days, with no shortage of options in between. Both the “Yes” and “No” options showcased varying prices and probabilities throughout all their different selections.
The page also featured a real-time snapshot of the forecast for the length of the government shutdown. It let traders track different forecast trends over the past few months.
- For example, the shutdown was earlier predicted to last just four days in early September 2025. That prediction was clearly a low-ball, as the shutdown ended up being the longest ever.
How to Trade the Kalshi Government Shutdown Contracts
| 🏛️ Total 2025 Shutdown Length | 43 Days |
| 🔥 Kalshi Referral Code | |
| 💰 Kalshi Referral Bonus | |
| 📝 Terms & Conditions | |
| ✅ Kalshi Info Last Verified | November 18, 2025 |
If you want to put money down on other political markets now that the government shutdown’s over, you can do so with the help of the Kalshi referral code.
With Kalshi and other prediction markets, it’s all about beating expectations set from formal forecasts on different events.
To effectively predict these events, you need to buy a contract on a real-world event.
- For example, you could have chosen to buy a contract on the U.S. Government Shutdown lasting more than 40 days.
Kalshi simply allows you to choose between “Yes” or “No” on different outcomes.
- Since Kalshi is a legal trading platform, it’s different than a traditional mobile sportsbook that adheres to gambling laws.
And unlike an online sportsbook, Kalshi lets you compete against other traders on the platform rather than the oddsmakers.
- After buying a contract, you can sell it later to lock in a profit if the outcome becomes increasingly likely.
Reading Market Prices and Probabilities
Before you start trading with Kalshi, it’s essential to understand how the pricing is built into the popular prediction market platform.
- Each option next to a potential prediction will show a price number (for example, 30¢, 75¢, etc.) that indicates both potential winnings and probability.
If something is listed at 55¢, the Kalshi prediction market has indicated that there’s a 55% likelihood of that outcome.
Since each contract is essentially combined to make $1 total:
- Yes = 55¢
- No = 45¢
- The individual that correctly predicts the outcome would receive the remaining profit.
- Example: a correct Yes prediction from the example above would net the winner 45¢.
Finding value in the priced amount against the forecasted predictability percentage is essential in being successful with prediction market apps like Kalshi.
What Happened If the Government Shutdown Ended Early?
If the government shutdown ended much earlier than expected, it would have had a significant effect on the prediction market landscape. For example:
- If the shutdown ended on October 29, 2025 (after 29 days), that means all contracts with 30 or more days would have been incorrect.
Although this did not happen, it’s important to be aware of the possibility when trading on Kalshi markets.
Market Sentiment: Previous Insights from Kalshi Traders on the Shutdown
As the numbers suggested the government shutdown to last around 43 days (which it did!), it appeared that Kalshi users were growing increasingly convinced that this would be the longest shutdown in the history of the United States.
Kalshi traders technically set this market, with the total number of predicted shutdown days increasing alongside more contracts being purchased.
As trader expectations increased, the graph on the Kalshi platform showed a steady increase in the projected shutdown length.
Kalshi’s Role in Modern Prediction Markets
Kalshi is one of the most well-known prediction market apps available right now. Its main competition comes from sites such as Polymarket.
While each of these apps are popular with users, the main difference comes in cryptocurrency focus, where Polymarket has revolved its platform around crypto, unlike Kalshi.
Both prediction market apps are approved by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Why Kalshi’s Government Shutdown Market Gained Attention
The 2025 shutdown of the U.S. government was top news in the fall, partially due to the fact that over a million federal employees were working without being paid or had been furloughed.
However, the story had been making news because the prediction market Kalshi had forecasted that it was likely to last over 40 days, past November 10, 2025.
Ultimately, the shutdown ended on November 13, 2025.
Key details to note:
- This marked the longest government shutdown ever.
- The 2019 shutdown lasted 35 days, from December 22, 2018 to January 25, 2019.
Responsible Participation in Kalshi Markets
Prediction market bettors should always make sure to trade responsibly. When you’re risking your own money, it’s vital to know your limits and fully understand the terms of different prediction contracts.
Try to steer clear of speculative behavior and high-risk, short-term gains.
Kalshi offers its own tools for responsible trading, such as: trading breaks, a personalized funding cap, and voluntary opt-out.
Kalshi Government Shutdown FAQs
The Kalshi Government Shutdown market sparked lots of questions from both casual and experienced prediction market users. Below, you’ll find FAQs about the latest market updates, past contract prices, and other government-related predictions on Kalshi.
Is the Kalshi Government Shutdown market still active?
No, the 2025 US government shutdown ended on November 12, 2025. This marked an end to the Kalshi government shutdown market as well.
How long was the 2025 Government Shutdown?
The 2025 government shutdown lasted from October 1st through November 12th.
What are the current Kalshi Government Shutdown contract prices?
There are no current Kalshi government shutdown contract prices as the market is closed.
How do Kalshi users make or lose money on shutdown contracts?
Kalshi users can win money on contracts that correctly predict the length of the United States government shutdown. So, if someone predicted “Yes” that the shutdown would last over 40 days, that person would successfully settle their prediction since the shutdown was 43 days. Meanwhile, anyone who predicted “No” will not receive any funds.
Are there fees for trading government shutdown contracts on Kalshi?
Yes, you can expect to pay fees to Kalshi while trading contracts. These fees are based on the expected profits that can be collected from a Kalshi contract. The fees can also differ from market to market, and you will receive a final confirmation of the amount while submitting your prediction contract on Kalshi.
What other government-related markets does Kalshi offer?
Kalshi offers a wide variety of governmental prediction markets, such as the Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2028, 2026 US Midterm elections, and more.
If you want to take a break from politics and trade on more fun markets at Kalshi, check out the following guides: