A question often asked in the sports betting world is how much does one player move a line? In Manny Machado’s case, the answer is a lot. The shortstop/third baseman signed a 10-year, $300 million contract with the San Diego Padres on Tuesday and in doing so, he impacted the future odds for at least two teams.
Oddsmakers adjust Padres futures
Machado’s arrival in San Diego obviously had a big impact on the Padres’ 2019 future odds. Before signing Machado, San Diego was 80/1 to win the World Series and 30/1 to win the National League West at the Westgate LV SuperBook.
After the Machado deal was announced, the Padres saw their odds to win the World Series drop to 50/1. San Diego is now down to 12/1 at the SuperBook to win the National League West. The Padres’ win total also increased from 76.5 to 78.5 at the SuperBook with the addition of Machado,
San Diego’s World Series odds saw significant movement at FanDuel Sportsbook in New Jersey as well. The Padres were 100/1 to win the World Series but dropped to 66/1 after nabbing the All-Star shortstop, and now it’s back out to 75/1.
Padres not the only team impacted by Machado
While it’s predictable the Padres’ odds would move after acquiring a player of Machado’s caliber, another team saw its odds adjust as well. The Chicago White Sox were favored to land Machado, so oddsmakers built their future odds with the anticipation he would end up in the Windy City.
The White Sox saw their win total drop from 76.5 to 75.5 at the SuperBook on Tuesday, although their World Series odds remained the same at 60/1.
“We built in the number with the White Sox more than any team for Machado,” Jeff Sherman, VP of risk management for the SuperBook, told RotoGrinders. “We’ll have to make a few adjustments bringing the White Sox down and increasing the Padres win total.”
A power outage for Manny?
While the Padres saw their odds shorten, one of Machado’s player props went the other way. Petco Park is known to be more favorable to pitchers, although the Padres moved the fences in 2013 to help hitters. The left-center field wall was moved in from 402 feet to 390 feet, the right-center field wall was moved from 411 feet to 391 feet, and the right field wall was moved in from 360 feet to 349 feet.
Even so, Machado saw his home run total drop at the SuperBook with news he’ll be playing his home games at Petco.
“We had Machado at 34.5 home runs. We’re going to adjust that to 32.5 because he’s going to a place that isn’t home run-friendly at Petco Park,” said Sherman.
Machado has gone over that total four times, including last season when he tied a career-high with 37 home runs.
Harper on deck
Machado isn’t the only player impacting MLB odds. Bryce Harper is affecting how oddsmakers build their preseason future odds, even though the 26-year-old free agent remains up for grabs. The Phillies are the favorites to land Harper, so the Westgate made their future odds with the expectation of Harper signing in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are the fifth betting favorite to win the World Series at the SuperBook with odds of 14/1. Philadelphia is +275 to win the National League East, behind the Washington Nationals (+225), the team Harper has played for his entire career. The odds for both teams will change if Harper officially signs with Philadelphia, with the Phillies becoming the favorites to win the division.
The Phillies win total this year is set at 86.5, while the Nationals are sitting at 89 with Harper still unsigned.
“In regard to the Phillies, we tried to build that number in anticipating Harper there, so we would have to make minimal adjustments,” said Sherman. “If he goes to Philadelphia, which seems most likely, we won’t have much to update.”
One of the two big free agent dominos fell on Tuesday with Machado landing in San Diego. Now the rest of the baseball world waits on Harper. While the Phillies remain the favorites, don’t count out a return to the Nationals. Oddsmakers clearly view those two teams as the likely destination for Harper based on the preseason future lines.