10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful NBA Notes for February 4th
This NBA season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of NBA games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s NBA plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 NBA notes for Saturday, February 4th.
1. John Wall has averaged 20.7 assists plus rebounds per game against the Pelicans since last season; that’s his best total against any opponent. In his last three meetings with New Orleans, he’s been remarkably consistent, posting totals of 50.7, 49.9, and 49.4 FanDuel points, and he’s projected for close to 50 FanDuel points again today, which you’ll need him to do in order to come close to paying off his hefty $10,600 salary (although he’s priced a bit more reasonably at $10,200 at DraftKings). The Pelicans rank 27th in DvP against point guards this year, but it’s worth noting that they’ve been a bit better recently with Jrue Holiday (1.15 defensive real-plus minus) playing solid defense against enemy point guards.
2. Speaking of Holiday, he’s been on fire; in his last six games, he’s averaging 46.2 FanDuel points per game, which is better than John Wall, Kyle Lowry, Eric Bledsoe, Kyrie Irving, and even the great Yogi Ferrell over that stretch. In fact, only Westbrook, Harden, Curry (Stephen – I guess you have to specify which Curry you’re talking about these days), and Isaiah Thomas have put up more FanDuel points.
3. DeMarcus Cousins is averaging 34.9 FD points per game against the Warriors in three games dating back to last year; that’s his lowest fantasy output against any team in the NBA (min. two games). Of course, the 2016 version of Cousins (particularly in the absence of Rudy Gay) is a different beast; he’s averaging career highs in both points (28.1) and assists (4.6) per game, and he just triple-doubled last night against the Suns. But on a day with so many places to pay up (Wall, Stephen Curry, Anthony Davis, LeBron, to name a few), and Cousins’ spotty history against Golden State certainly makes him a tougher sell.
4. According to Jeff Hornacek, Derrick Rose is unlikely to play on Saturday, which means Brandon Jennings should draw the start. In games he’s started this year, he’s averaging 16.7 points, 6.3 assists, 4.1 rebounds, and 1.7 steals per game. Only two other guards have season averages that exceed those numbers: Chris Paul and Kyle Lowry. With a few consecutive starts under his belt, Jennings’s price has caught up to his production, but it’s hard to argue with the matchup, as the Cavs rank 24th in DvP against point guards, as they’re held down by Kyrie Irving’s -1.41 defensive real plus-minus.
5. Tony Parker averages 31.1 FanDuel points per game against the Nuggets since 2015-16, more than he does against any other opponent (min. three games). The last time Parker faced the Nuggets (back on January 7th), I wrote about his ridiculous field goal percentage against them (it’s currently at 70.5 percent since 2015-16, and the next-highest guard is at 52.3 percent); he went on to make 10 of 11 shots in that game. Clicking Tony Parker in 2016 falls somewhere between watching grass grow and having a root canal on the fun meter, but he’s going to be extremely low owned, and if he can put up 30 points (not as unreasonable as it sounds – he’s put up 37 twice in his last four against Denver), he’d be a steal at his price ($4,400 at FanDuel, $4,000 at DraftKings).
6. Nicolas Batum has put up 10+ points, 5+ rebounds, and 5+ assists in 25 games this season; the only players with more such games this year are James Harden (51), Russell Westbrook (48), LeBron James (38), and Giannis Antetokounmpo (31). The matchup is terrible, as the Jazz rank first in the NBA in DvP against shooting guards, coupled with the fact that this is the lone game on Saturday’s slate with a sub-200 total. But if Batum is asked to shoulder more of the offensive load with Cody Zeller and Ramon Sessions out and (more importantly) Kemba Walker questionable, he could be in line for a big game at low ownership.
7. One more Batum stat: his 57.7 percent from beyond the arc since January 25th (15-for-26) is best of any player with at least 26 attempts; Stephen Curry is second-best over that span at 55.8 percent.
8. The Jazz have allowed just eight double-doubles to opposing centers this year, the fewest in the NBA; for comparison, six teams allowed eight or more double-doubles to centers in January alone. Even at his low price ($4,500 at FanDuel, $4,200), and even with increased minutes as a result of Cody Zeller absence, it’s going to be really difficult to click Frank Kaminsky on Saturday (maybe even harder than clicking Tony Parker).
9. Ersan Ilyasova has three games of 40+ FanDuel points this year, the same number he had all of last season. The common denominator in all his games of 40+ FD points this year? Joel Embiid has been out of the lineup, as he will be Saturday in Miami. It’s worth noting that two of those games came against the Spurs (ranked fourth in DvP against power forwards) and the Grizzlies (ranked second). Sure, it’s a small sample, but his ability to put up big numbers despite poor matchups in Embiid’s absence (not to mention Robert Covington’s potential absence) could come into play against the Heat, who rank sixth against the position in DvP.
10. No player has scored more points in a game on February 4th than the 52 LeBron James dropped on this date in 2009. The opponent that day? The New York Knicks. The venue? Madison Square Garden. LeBron and the Cavs travel to New York to face the Knicks in the Garden on the same day in 2017. I’m not sure how much correlation exists between a single game that took place eight years ago and today’s game, but…at least you got nine helpful notes today.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, StatMuse, Basketball Reference, and NBA.com.
Check back for more “10 Notes” NBA articles throughout the year (typically posted on Mondays, Thursdays, and Saturdays), and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to talk about today’s slate of NBA games.