10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful NBA Notes for March 25th
This NBA season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of NBA games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s NBA plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 NBA notes for Saturday, March 25th.
1. Karl-Anthony Towns now has 33 games of 25 points and 12 rebounds in his first 152 games as a pro. For some context, consider this: in their first 152 NBA games, DeMarcus Cousins had eleven 25-point, 12-rebound games, Anthony Davis had 17, Blake Griffin had 28, David Robinson had 29, and Tim Duncan had 30. In fact, Shaquille O’Neal is the only player with more such games in his first 152 (he had 56). Towns is playing on the second half of a back-to-back, and he played 42.7 minutes in last night’s overtime game against the Lakers. However, Towns has seemed minute-proof as of late (if that’s a thing). Here are his FanDuel point totals in his last five games on zero days rest: 55.3 (against the Bucks), 50 (against the Grizzlies), 51.8 (against the Nuggets), 67.9 (against the Rockets), 51.4 (against the Cavs).
2. However, Towns’s matchup with the Blazers might be more difficult than it seems: while the Blazers have allowed centers to put up 50+ FanDuel points on 10 occasions this year (the most of any team in the NBA), every single one of those games came before Portland’s acquisition of Jusuf Nurkic.
3. Ricky Rubio has six games of 15+ assists since January 9th; the next-highest player has four. He’s pairing his elite passing with an increased willingness to shoot the ball, as evidenced by the fact that he’s put up 10 shots in a game for nine straight games, the longest streak of his career. The back-to-back is perhaps a bit more concerning with Rubio than Towns, as his rebounding and assists numbers take a slight hit on zero days rest. Even so, that risk is at least partially baked in, as his price at FanDuel has dropped from $7,800 to $7,200 over the past week.
4. Since the All-Star break, Damian Lillard is averaging 31.1 points and 5.6 assists per game on 49.5 percent shooting. If those numbers hold, he’d become just the fifth player since 1984-85 to put up those numbers after the break, and he’s in exclusive company: the other players are Dwyane Wade (2008-09), David Robinson (1993-94), Michael Jordan (who did it five times), and Larry Bird (1987-88). In other words, Lillard has been crushing it since the break, and even though his price is on the rise (he’s now $9,600 at FanDuel and $9,100 at DraftKings), he might still be a bargain. He’s trying to will the Blazers towards the eight seed in the Western Conference, as he’s taken 20 or more shots 10 times since the All-Star break; that’s more games of 20 or more shots than Russell Westbrook has taken during that stretch (only Kyrie Irving has as many 20-FGA games as Lillard since the break). The DvP matchup is not great, as the Timberwolves rank second against point guards on the season. But this is a four-game slate, so high-end options are limited, and Lillard provides massive upside, even in this matchup.
5. It’s no secret that when LeBron is out, Kyrie Irving becomes a usage monster: in 506.8 minutes without LeBron on the floor this year, Irving has a 43.8 percent usage rate. For some perspective, Russell Westbrook has a season-long usage rate of 41.5 percent, which will make him the first player since 1951-52 (as far back as StatMuse has data) to post a usage rate higher than 40 percent. But we know that. A less obvious byproduct of LeBron’s being out is Irving’s increase in peripherals. In the three games that he has started and James has missed, Irving has averaged 12.7 rebounds plus assists per game; in games James has started, Irving’s rebounds plus assists drops to 8.9 per game, even despite the fact that he’s averaged nearly four more minutes per game in that scenario (35.2 MPG with James, 31.8 MPG without James). After being poked in the eye by Jeremy Lamb in last night’s game, LeBron’s status at time of writing is unknown, though reports that he couldn’t open his right eye don’t sound promising.
6. DeMar DeRozan has 31 games of 35+ usage this year (including each of the last three). That’s the same number of such games he has in the rest of his career combined.
He also has 10 games of 50+ FanDuel points this year, which is one game more game of 50+ FanDuel points than he has for the rest of his career combined. There’s no getting around the fact that the Raptors/Mavericks game could be an ugly one for fantasy purposes: this is a game with a 194.5 (and still dropping) over/under, and both teams involved rank in the bottom third of the NBA in pace. But one point in DeRozan’s favor is that in his past two games, he’s dominated slow-paced matchups, posting 52.7 FanDuel points against the Heat (21st in pace) and 64.4 FanDuel points against the Bulls (26th in pace). At FanDuel in particular, where the shooting guard position is putrid, DeRozan should merit more consideration than usual given the matchup.
7. Kristaps Porzingis averages 38.3 FanDuel points in three career games against the Spurs. The only team against whom he averages more is the Lakers (39.3 FanDuel points per game). He’s also the only player to average 2 three-pointers and 2 blocks per game versus Spurs over the past two seasons (minimum three games). The matchup hasn’t bothered him much, and with the statuses of Derrick Rose and Carmelo Anthony murky at time of writing, Porzingis could become an enticing option at the power forward position as more injury information becomes available.
8. In Seth Curry audition as point guard for the Mavericks last game, he had a usage rate of 24.6 percent; that was his highest in a game since March 5th. If he draws the start at point guard on Saturday, he’s firmly in play against Cory Joseph, owner of a -2.45 defensive real plus-minus, which is the worst of any point guard on the slate.
9. Markieff Morris’s role in Washington’s offense took a nose dive starting in March. Starting in November, here are the number of games in which he’s had a usage rate higher than 20 percent: 9 (November), 6 (December), 11 (January), 8 (February). In March? He’s had a usage rate of 20 percent in just one game. I think RotoGrinders contributor Seth Yates said it best last night on Twitter:
10. In Minnesota’s overtime loss to the Lakers last night, Kris Dunn posted a line of 11 points, 7 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 steals, and 2 blocks. This month, only nine players have matched that line in a game, and all of them are either power forwards or centers (I’m including Giannis Antetokounmpo as a power forward since that’s where he’s played for Milwaukee as of late). Minnesota’s rookie guard was relied on heavily last night, only sitting for a total of one minute in the second half, including overtime. He also shared the floor with Ricky Rubio for 24 minutes and 40 seconds on Friday night. He’s nothing more than a tournament dart at this point, but his ability to fill the stat sheet could make him an interesting DFS option down the road, provided he learns to be at least adequate in the scoring department.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, StatMuse, Basketball Reference, PopcornMachine.com, and NBA.com.
Check back for more “10 Notes” NBA articles throughout the year (typically posted on Mondays, Thursdays, and Saturdays), and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to talk about today’s slate of NBA games.