10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful NFL Notes for Week 10
This NFL season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that week’s slate of NFL games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about this week’s NFL plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 notes for Week 10.
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Week 10
1. Through his first 55 games as an NFL player, Le’Veon Bell has 2,224 receiving yards; that’s the most by any running back since 1999 (the earliest Pro Football Reference has this data available), and it’s not that close. For context, if you took away Bell’s top four games, in terms of receiving yards, he’s still have 1,721 yards and rank in the top four since 1999 (trailing only Ray Rice, Reggie Bush, and LaDainian Tomlinson). On Sunday, Bell’s in a primo matchup against the Indianapolis Colts, who rank 32nd (of 32 NFL teams, in case you’re new to this) in pass defense DVOA against running backs. Okay, so Bell is one of the best pass-catching backs of all time, and he’s in a best-case-scenario matchup. But that’s not all. Take a look at his rushing attempts per game over the past four seasons:
2014 – 18.1
2015 – 18.8
2016 – 21.7
2017 – 24.3
Bell’s workload has been through the roof this year, and that should continue this week as Pittsburgh is favored by 10 on the road against the Colts. And the “on the road” part is important, too: Bell has averaged more DraftKings points on the road than at home in every one of his five NFL seasons. It’s almost never a bad idea to play Bell, but in a perfect matchup this week, it’s inexcusable to leave him off your cash game lineups.
2. There’s only one back in the league with double-digit goal line carries and 50+ targets, and it’s not Bell, or Todd Gurley, or Melvin Gordon. It’s Carlos Hyde (yeah, the same guy we all thought was losing his job to Matt Breida a few weeks ago). While Hyde continues to hover in the 12-15 carry range most weeks, this is mostly due to game script, as San Francisco continues to find themselves playing from behind; per PlayerProfiler.com, the 49ers have a -8.66 game script score, worst in the NFL. Hyde could see a spikein carries in Week 10, as the 49ers are only modest home underdogs to the Giants, one of the few teams that may be more inept than the 49ers. And even if San Francisco is playing from behind, Hyde will be a factor. Since C.J. Beathard took over in Week 6, Hyde has 34 targets, most in the NFL and a full eight targets more than second-place Javorius Allen. At DraftKings, he’s the perfect complement to Le’Veon Bell in cash game lineups.
3. Since 2016, the Cleveland Browns have allowed multiple touchdown passes to 19 of 24 starting QBs they’ve faced; that’s three more than the team that has allowed the second-most such games, the Jets. And while the list includes its share of Pro Bowlers, it also includes also-rans like Landry Jones, Case Keenum, Josh McCown, and Joe Flacco times. There’s nothing sneaky about Matthew Stafford this week, but that doesn’t make him a bad play, especially in cash games, where ownership percentages don’t matter.
4. Speaking of Matthew Stafford, when throwing to Marvin Jones this year (62 targets), he’s posted a 107.9 QB rating; when target Golden Tate (64 targets), he’s posted a 107.2 QB rating. Per PlayerProfiler.com, those QB rating numbers rank #1 and #2 among any QB/WR combo this year with at least 62 targets. With Detroit having no running game or tight ends to speak of, most of the passing game work is going to go through Jones and Tate. Given the likelihood that Stafford throws multiple touchdowns, and Stafford/Tate/Jones pairing may be an interesting way of differentiating from the more conventional Stafford/Tate or Stafford/Jones pairings in GPPs.
5. After last week’s 175-point game against the Texans, T.Y. Hilton now has five games of 150+ yards receiving since 2016, more than any other player; that’s the same number as Julio Jones (2), Doug Baldwin (2), and DeAndre Hopkins (1) combined. Even in the absence of Andrew Luck, Hilton continues to be a constant big play threat. In fact, since last year, he’s got 22 gains of 20+ yards at home, which is six more than the players tied for the second-most gains of 20+ yards (Doug Baldwin and Julio Jones). Against the Steelers, there’s a good chance the Colts will be playing from behind and have to air it out, which could mean another week-winning performance from Hilton (and which also means he’s a fine correlation play with Le’Veon Bell, who the Steelers will ride if they’ve got the lead). The only question is if ownership will be too high in GPPs. If that sounds familiar, it’s because it’s exactly what we said about Hilton before Week 9.
6. Since Week 5, Jets slot corner Buster Skrine has allowed 24 targets into coverage (second-most in the NFL) and 18 receptions (second-most) for 239 yards (most in the NFL) and three TDs (most in the NFL, with no other slot corner allowing more than 1). During that same time frame, Adam Humphries has run 145 routes from the slot, 29 more than second-place Rashard Higgins. With Mike Evans out due to suspension, the Bucs will likely leave Humphries in the slot, where he should have no trouble piling up catches and yardage in the plus matchup against Skrine. And while Ryan Fitzpatrick may appear to be a downgrade from Jameis Winston, it’s worth noting that when Winston was out in Week 6, Humphries was targeted seven times by Fitzpatrick, hauling in six of them for 51 yards, a line that would pay off his meager $3,100 salary at DraftKings.
7. Another beneficiary of the targets opened up in Evans’s absence is Bucs’ tight end Cameron Brate. Brate is one of eight players with 89 catches, 1,074 yards, and 12 touchdowns since 2016, and you may have heard of a few of the others on the list (Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Odell Beckham, Jr., Mike Evans, Jordy Nelson, Michael Crabtree, Davante Adams). Like Humphries, Brate was a favorite target of Fitzpatrick’s in Week 6, posting a season-high 19.6 DraftKings points on six catches, 76 yards, and a score. Without any obvious cheap tight ends available in Week 10, Brate may fit the bill as a reliable cash game option at just $4,100 at DraftKings.
8. While Dez Bryant and Davante Adams being tied for the NFL-lead with 13 red zone targets isn’t surprising, the player who ranks third with 12 targets inside the 20 may be a bit more unexpected. It’s Cooper Kupp, the Rams’ rookie slot receiver, who has converted those 13 targets into seven catches and three touchdowns. In a week that features a ton of low over/unders, the Rams/Texans game has one of the higher totals of the week and is likely to be a popular game stacking spot. Rather than chasing Sammy Watkins fluky 13.7 DraftKings points (which came on two targets), it may be worth banking on the higher floor of Kupp and hoping for some positive touchdown variance. Alsoworth noting is that, per RotoGrinders’ WR/CB Matchup Tool, Kupp should be covered in the slot by Kareem Jackson, who ranks 95th of 115 qualified cornerbacks at Pro Football Focus.
9. Evan Engram is on pace for 68 catches, 824 yards, and eight touchdowns. No rookie tight end has ever matched that line, and in fact, it’s only happened nine times in NFL history among wide receivers (the other players to make the list are Michael Thomas, Odell Beckham, Kelvin Benjamin, Mike Evans, Keenan Allen, Randy Moss, Marques Colston, Anquan Boldin, and Bill Groman). True, “on pace” stats are a little silly, but if anything Engram is trending upwards. Over the last four weeks, he’s seeing a 30.0% target share, which trails only Antonio Brown, Dez Bryant, Adam Thielen, DeAndre Hopkins, and Alshon Jeffery among pass catchers. Engram is priced up, which may make him difficult for cash games, but his volume alone may drive up his ownership in tournaments. Even so, his upside is immense against a 49ers team that will be without starting safety Jaquiski Tartt, who ranked 11th in coverage at Pro Football Focus and was a major reason San Francisco ranks #1 in DVOA against the tight end position.
10. Only seven wide receivers are responsible for greater than 37.0% of their teams’ air yards: Antonio Brown, A.J. Green, DeAndre Hopkins, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones, T.Y. Hilton, and … Robby Anderson. Anderson has touchdowns in three straight games, and he’s in a pristine matchup against the Bucs, who rank 31st in DVOA against the pass. Boom-or-bust players like Anderson are always better suited for GPPs, but he’s got a real shot for a long score against this porous Tampa Bay pass defense.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, Player Profiler, Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders, NFL.com, and Pro Football Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” NFL articles throughout this football season, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!