2015 NFL DFS: Optimal Lineups
Dear NFL DFS Data Analyst,
I’ve tried to research official winning scores, and learn from forums, but I’m getting contradictory results. Do you think closer to 135 or 200 points is what it takes to win the Millionaire Maker contest?
– Going for the Gold
Dear Going for the Gold,
When it comes to MM, there’s winning, and then there’s WINNING. For Weeks 1-13, the top 1% of DraftKings’ 2015’s NFL MM contest averaged 196 points per week. Nearly 50% of prize money was awarded to this 1%. But the weekly winner of the largest piece of the pie — the top 1% of that 1% — averaged 253 points.
The optimal weekly score is also a solid data point. That averaged 297. That’s a 17% difference between the average winning score (253) and the average perfect score (297). That’s huge! Moreover, even the MM winner who came the closest to that week’s winning score was 21 pts off, or 3+ touchdowns. In Week 7, this contestant’s team scored 283 points compared to the 304 optimal score. A far cry from perfection.
You would think of 500K+ rosters, at least ONE would slate the perfect permutation of 300 players. But nobody did; not even the best of the best. Check out the points per optimal lineup, per week:
So what I am saying? You don’t need to be a perfectionist and secure almost 300 points; but before you can take home the gold, you do need to beat the elite with approximately 250 points.
Dear NFL DFS Data Analyst,
When it comes to salary for an NFL MM contest, should spending the entire sum be part of my strategy? I was taught never to leave money on the table. Ever.
– Spending It Wisely
Dear Spending It Wisely,
When negotiating your job’s salary, respectfully squeeze until you’re certain there’s no more money on the table. When picking your NFL DFS lineup, however, spending the most salary possible doesn’t necessarily secure a stronger team.
I see why contestants would think the more salary you pay, the better the players, the higher the score. But such linear thinking isn’t in your best interest: thinking value as a whole is. Maximizing the number of points per dollar is. And while some prioritize position combinations, and others compare players’ salaries to other players with the same position, nobody has a crystal ball. Point is, maxing out salary isn’t going to win you a trip to paradise.
Take a look at the salaries per optimal weekly lineup. While no contestant actually achieved a perfect lineup, if somebody had, he wouldn’t have maxed out $50,000. In fact, salaries averaged $47,440.
A deeper dive into optimal lineup flex positions also illustrates this point. There were four weeks of the 17-week season where a tight end was used for the flex position, (Weeks 1, 5, 8, and 16). Running backs and wide receivers — typically scoring more points than a TE — may initially appear to be the stronger bet, but TEs often offer the best value.
So what am I saying? You don’t have to max out your salary to build a winning team. Even considering that spending strategy is a distraction from your true objective: selecting valuable players whose whole is greater than the sum of its parts.