2021 NL MVP Odds: Harper Makes His Move, But Tatis Remains in Driver's Seat
As the Major League Baseball regular season enters its homestretch, the competition for individual accolades, such as Cy Young and Most Valuable Player, is becoming increasingly more focused. In the American League, oddsmakers have essentially called the race for MVP with Shohei Ohtani at -1100 odds. However, in the National League, there is slightly more ambiguity for MLB bettors looking to wager on baseball futures.
Let’s take a look at the National League MVP odds and how bettors should approach the last month and a half of the campaign at online sportsbooks.
NL MVP Odds
Fernando Tatis Jr. (-280)
Prior to the first pitch of Sunday’s MLB slate, Fernando Tatis Jr. had – 175 odds, in part, due to the fact that he was still on the injured list and it was unclear how healthy his shoulder would be upon being activated. Tatis Jr. erased all doubt concerning his health yesterday in his first game back in the lineup—exploding for a four-hit day at the plate, including two home runs and four runs batted in. On the season, he now owns a .298 batting average with 82 runs scored, 33 home runs, 74 RBI, and 23 stolen bases. Despite only having played in 89 games, he has seven more home runs than Joey Votto, Adam Duvall, and Freddie Freeman—who are all tied for second. Tatis Jr. is also still tied for the lead in stolen bases with Trea Turner.
If Tatis Jr. can play even 30 more games this season, the National League MVP race is likely over. If the season were to end today, Tatis Jr. has the highest OPS, 1.024, of any player in MLB history during a 30 home run, 20 stolen base season. Of course, he has plenty of time to pad both of those counting stats if the San Diego Padres’ plan to keep him in right field will enable him to stay healthy enough to finish the year. The current odds on Tatis Jr. are heavy, but they are heavy for good reason. If bettors trust him to remain in the lineup, they should have no hesitations about locking in their wagers here.
Bryce Harper (+480)
On August 5, we wrote about Bryce Harper’s inexplicable long-shot odds to win the MVP, which were +3000 at the time of writing. Over the course of the subsequent 24 hours, his odds re-adjusted to +240. After Sunday’s electrifying performance from Tatis Jr., Harper’s odds have fallen back to +480, but he remains a clear second-place favorite over players such as Max Muncy (+950), Trea Turner (+1800), and Freddie Freeman (+1800).
Over the last couple of weeks, we have encouraged bettors to place a small wager on Harper to win the award, due to the legitimate uncertainty surrounding the health of Tatis Jr. If Tatis Jr. would have opted for season-ending shoulder surgery, Harper would have immediately become a heavy-odds favorite in this situation. There was also widespread speculation as to how healthy the Padres’ slugger would be, even if he did return to the lineup. Having roughly 45 games left on the schedule, Harper would have had plenty of time to close the gap in this conversation against a player who was forcing his way through a difficult injury.
However, after yesterday’s strong showing from Tatis Jr., it is clear that if he is on the field, he is the runaway favorite to take home the hardware. Harper’s .294 batting average, 21 home runs, .981 OPS, and his strong strikeout-to-walk ratio, are deserving of honorable mention. The fact that he has been an offensive catalyst in helping the Philadelphia Phillies climb back into the race for the National League East division title is also worthy of recognition. Yet, his numbers are simply not good enough to contend with a healthy Tatis Jr..
Entering the final month and a half of action, Harper trails Tatis Jr. by 12 home runs, 25 runs batted in, and only has about half as many stolen bases. Outside of having one of the most incredible final stretches in MLB history, it is likely that this year’s National League MVP is going to be a San Diego Padres player for the first time since Ken Caminiti won the honor in 1996.
Bettors who do not believe in Tatis Jr. to stay healthy might want to hedge their bets on Harper, but, at this point, there is only a very small chance that anyone other than Tatis Jr. wins this award. The odds are likely to move much closer to Ohtani’s -1100 very soon.
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