2021 NFL Betting and Fantasy Team Preview: Arizona Cardinals
With new names on the team like A.J. Green, James Conner, J.J. Watt, and Malcolm Butler, will the Arizona Cardinals be able to improve from their 8-8 record in 2020? Or will the losses of guys like Patrick Peterson, Larry Fitzgerald (as things appear now, at least), and Kenyan Drake prove to be too costly? Those are just a few of the overarching questions that face the Cardinals as they head into the third season of the Kliff Kingsbury / Kyler Murray marriage.
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Arizona Cardinals Team Betting Preview
Win Total (over):8 (-130)
Games Favored:8
Games as a TD Favorite:1
Games as a TD Underdog:2
A nonchalant approach to me thinking about what this Cardinals team should look like this season left me a tad surprised their Win Total was ‘only’ at 8. The natural evolution of a team like this is to gradually improve season after season, at least in the early going.
2019 record: 5-10-1
2020 record: 8-8
So yeah, I was definitely taken aback when I saw a Win Total of just 8, especially since every team gets 17 regular season games now.
When looking at the chart above, they are favored in exactly eight of their games too. And yet, they are at least a touchdown favorite in just one of them (home against Houston in Week 7). Conversely, they are at least a touchdown underdog in two games (at Rams in Week 4; at San Francisco in Week 9). When it comes down to it, I think the fact that they play in one of the toughest divisions in the league is what has this line a little lower than I thought it’d be.
Ultimately though, I still find myself a little higher on this team than the public. As a result, I am going to ride with the over on their win total. If you want to roll with slightly better odds, you can consider taking the over 8.5 at +100 (on BetMGM and DraftKings). For me, I’m just going to stick with the over 8 on FanDuel at -130.
PICK: Arizona Cardinals Over 8 Regular Season Wins (-130)
Arizona Cardinals Team Projections Preview
Projected Offense Rank:8
Projected Rush Offense Rating: Average
Projected Pass Offense Rating: Average
Projected Points Earned:415 (Rank 13)
Rushing Opponents:
Projected Difficult Rush Defenses Faced:7
Projected Soft Rush Defenses Faced:5
Passing Opponents:
Projected Difficult Pass Defenses Faced:6
Projected Soft Pass Defenses Faced:6
Team Defense Rank:16
Projected Rush Defense Rating:Average
Projected Pass Defense Rating:Average
Projected Points Allowed:413.5 (Rank 11)
In 2020, this offense finished sixth in yards per game (384.6) but just 13th in points per game (25.6). They also ran the third most plays per game last season. Even with their fair share of roster turnover on this side of the ball in the offseason, they are still projecting to have the eighth best offense in the league. It helps that they have the 11th best offensive line too (per PFF).
We pretty much know what to expect out of the offense this season, but it is the defensive side of the ball that is likely to determine just how good of a team Arizona can be. The numbers above say they project to be average in every sense of the word. Considering Pro Football Focus projects them to have a bottom 10 linebacker group (22nd) and secondary (also 22nd), the big fellas up front are going to have to do a lot of the heavy lifting (both literally and figuratively, I presume). They of course got J.J. Watt in the offseason, but don’t forget about Markus Golden and Chandler Jones either. Even so, that group still leaves them ranked ‘just’ 12th, per PFF.
Arizona Cardinals Fantasy Football Preview
Noteworthy Depth Chart
QB: Kyler Murray – Underdog Rank: QB3 (ADP QB4)
RB: Chase Edmonds – Underdog Rank: RB28 (ADP RB28)
RB: James Conner – Underdog Rank: RB33 (ADP RB36)
WR: DeAndre Hopkins – Underdog Rank: WR3 (ADP WR4)
WR: Christian Kirk – Underdog Rank: WR70 (ADP WR70)
WR: A.J. Green – Underdog Rank: WR72 (ADP WR74)
TE: Maxx Williams – Underdog Rank: TE37 (ADP TE46)
What’s New?: James Conner, A.J. Green, Rondale Moore
After being the lead dog in the Steelers backfield, James Conner comes over to the Cardinals to be a replacement of sorts for the departed Kenyan Drake (now with the Raiders). Early projections at RotoGrinders have it a relatively even split between Conner and Chase Edmonds. Conner is projecting for a 37% share of team carries with a 5% target share. Edmonds, on the other hand, is projecting for 33% of team carries with a 11% target share.
The Cardinals also signed in A.J. Green in the offseason and drafted Rondale Moore (Purdue) in the second round to replace Larry Fitzgerald, who appears to be ready to announce his retirement any day now. Throwing Green and Moore into the mix alongside DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk means that Kyler Murray should have plenty of toys to play with this season.
What’s Uncertain?: Will Kyler Murray run as much this season?
A huge part of Murray’s allure in fantasy football is how much he uses his legs. After 544 yards and 4 TD’s in his rookie season, he was borderline unfair in 2020: 819 yards and 11 TD’s.
However, a lot of the damage he did last season was in the first half of the season before he injured his shoulder. When looking at touchdowns alone, 10 of his 11 rushing TD’s were in the first half of the season. And trust me, the rushing yards splits tell a similar story.
We know Kyler is going to be a fantasy monster any way you slice it; he’s going to run even when his coaches tell him not to. But exactly how much he runs—and if he can stay healthy while doing so—is going to be the difference between him competing with Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen for QB1 or dropping down a tier below them.
Top Fantasy Play(s): Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins
Image Credit: Imagn