2021 NFL Betting and Fantasy Team Preview: Chicago Bears
“Andy Dalton is our starting quarterback.” Those six words have tempered Bears fans’ excitement entering the season after Chicago traded up to select Justin Fields with the 11th overall pick in the 2021 draft. While Fields is an exciting prospect with 4.45 speed, Dalton is entering his 11th season and is coming off a year where he threw just 14 touchdowns in 11 games. Most analysts expect Fields to eventually take over the starting job from Dalton. When that will happen is pure speculation at this point which makes it difficult to project Chicago’s offense accurately. Defensively, the Bears still rate as an above-average defense and they’ll need to rely on their typical grind-it-out style of play for as long as Dalton is under center.
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Chicago Bears Team Betting Preview
Win Total (over):7.5 (-110)
Games Favored:5
Games as a TD Favorite:0
Games as a TD Underdog:6
Chicago’s season-long win total is set at 7.5 despite being favored in just five games based on look-ahead lines. Obviously, it’s safe to expect significant movement in those lines as the season progresses but I agree with the overall sentiment that the Bears don’t have many wins on their schedule at first glance. Predicting Chicago’s success, or lack thereof, is a tough task without knowing what to expect out of the QB position and I am not overly optimistic that Matt Nagy will handle the situation correctly. Regardless of who is starting at QB for Chicago, I expect their offense to be well below average, and in combination with a mostly middling defense, I think the Bears could struggle to find wins over any team not named the Detroit Lions.
PICK: Bears Under 7.5 Wins
Chicago Bears Team Projections Preview
Projected Offense Rank:30
Projected Rush Offense Rating: Below Average
Projected Pass Offense Rating: Weak
Projected Points Earned:377.25 (Rank 25)
Rushing Opponents:
Projected Difficult Rush Defenses Faced:8
Projected Soft Rush Defenses Faced:4
Passing Opponents:
Projected Difficult Pass Defenses Faced:5
Projected Soft Pass Defenses Faced:6
Team Defense Rank:12
Projected Rush Defense Rating:Strong
Projected Pass Defense Rating:Below Average
Projected Points Allowed:406.75 (Rank 15)
The Bears project to be one of the worst offenses in the league regardless of who is under center. While Justin Fields adds mobility and more excitement for fantasy purposes, the likeliest outcome here is that the team will struggle to score points this season. Early projections suggest Chicago will see slightly less adversity through the air. Defensively, Chicago projects to once again be stingy against opposing rushing attacks and more giving through the air.
Chicago Bears Fantasy Football Preview
Noteworthy Depth Chart
QB: Justin Fields / Andy Dalton – Underdog Rank:TBD (ADP QB16)
RB: David Montgomery – Underdog Rank: RB21 (ADP RB18)
RB: Damien Williams – Underdog Rank: RB56 (ADP RB56)
WR: Allen Robinson – Underdog Rank: WR21 (ADP WR12)
TE: Cole Kmet – Underdog Rank: TE22 (ADP TE22)
What’s New?: Justin Fields, Damien Williams, Damiere Byrd, Marquise Goodwin
Fields will reportedly start the season as Andy Dalton backup. Williams will operate as RB2 and likely see passing-down work with Tarik Cohen still recovering from a torn ACL. Byrd and Goodwin are expected to mix in at WR3/4.
What’s Uncertain?: WR rotation.
Anthony Miller departure leaves some uncertainty around Chicago’s receiving rotation. Miller spent the majority of his time with the Bears in the slot but his absence doesn’t mean he’ll be replaced with another strict slot receiver. The most likely outcome here is that Allen Robinson sees more snaps out of the slot while some sort of combination of Damiere Byrd and Marquise Goodwin split snaps as WR3.
Top Fantasy Play(s): Allen Robinson
Robinson is likely to be the only consistent source of fantasy production for this offense. David Montgomery is worthy of some consideration but I am tempering my expectations with a competent pass-catching RB in Damien Williams on the roster.
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