2021 NFL Betting and Fantasy Team Preview: Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins have pulled themselves out of the proverbial basement of NFL franchises under the leadership of Brian Flores, and a lot of credit needs to be given to them for “changing the culture.” They are no longer an opponent that teams can expect to beat with any certainty, and have compiled weaponry on both sides of the football worthy of concern. In this article we will preview the 2021 version of the team briefly, and analyze how well the improved team dynamics might fare in the overall landscape of betting and fantasy football.
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Miami Dolphins Team Betting Preview
Win Total (over):9.5 (115)
Games Favored:10
Games as a TD Favorite:2
Games as a TD Underdog:2
There is actually a path for the Dolphins to reach 10 wins in the new 17 game season, but it’s far from a certainty. For instance, they’ll have to beat a combination of New England or Buffalo at least twice in my eyes. They’ll also have to sweep the Jets, which is no longer a stone cold lock with some expected improvements there. By contrast, the NFC south and AFC south provide a mildly favorable set of opponents that increase their odds of success.
Bottom Line: We graded the offense and defense for the Dolphins closer to average, and it is probably safer to avoid the favorable odds on the over (+115). I think the Dolphins are more likely to have 8 or 9 wins, which makes the under the better option if the price is right. It’s -135 at the moment, which is a stay away. We can find better spots.
A bet that I do like on Fanduel Sportsbook is Tua Tagovailoa over 3899.5 passing yards (-112). Assuming he finishes 17 games (always a risk with a player who has had a big injury), we’re left to wonder if the second year in the system can deliver improvements to his deep passing game. He certainly has some help getting there, as the Dolphins drafted Jaylen Waddle and signed Will Fuller to aid the deep ball. We can also assume the improved health of other WRs like Albert Wilson or one of several other veterans can help their overall depth. My projection for Tua at this point is well over 4,300 yards, and that leaves a pretty significant buffer for missed time or underperformance. I just picked up a single unit bet on him at this price and feel pretty good about it.
Miami Dolphins Team Projections Preview
Projected Offense Rank:20
Projected Rush Offense Rating: Average
Projected Pass Offense Rating: Average
Projected Points Earned:402 (Rank 18)
Rushing Opponents:
Projected Difficult Rush Defenses Faced:7
Projected Soft Rush Defenses Faced:5
Passing Opponents:
Projected Difficult Pass Defenses Faced:5
Projected Soft Pass Defenses Faced:6
Team Defense Rank:15
Projected Rush Defense Rating:Average
Projected Pass Defense Rating:Average
Projected Points Allowed:396.5 (Rank 21)
Adding to my confidence in betting the Tua over on pass yards is the strength of passing schedule. I count six “soft” opponents and just five difficult spots. This is good news for a player who could use a softer schedule and now has more dangerous weaponry. The Dolphins offense figures to have more passing viability in 2021, while the run game should remain competent.
The Dolphins defense figure to have a secondary that ranks above average but a front 7 that is below average. This should make them a team that will need big playmaking in the turnover department like they got last season, else suffer a decline in performance. I expect that they will not be a matchup that we avoid for fantasy purposes, but also won’t be among the favorite punching bags. It helps that they restructured Xavien Howard and got him back into camp, as they would really be in danger of struggling without a top 10 secondary. He certainly contributes to that.
Miami Dolphins Fantasy Football Preview
Noteworthy Depth Chart
QB: Tua Tagovailoa – Underdog Rank: QB14 (ADP QB18)
RB: Myles Gaskin – Underdog Rank: RB22 (ADP RB26)
RB: Malcolm Brown – Underdog Rank: RB56 (ADP RB56)
WR: DeVante Parker – Underdog Rank: WR42 (ADP WR55)
WR: Jaylen Waddle – Underdog Rank: WR46 (ADP WR48)
WR: Will Fuller – Underdog Rank: WR58 (ADP WR42)
TE: Mike Gesicki – Underdog Rank: TE19 (ADP TE13)
What’s New?: Jaylen Waddle is a standout 96th percentile speedster who could have been dominant in college if not for the presence of other major talents at the University of Alabama. Every pro evaluator seemed to concur he was worthy of a first round pick, and the Dolphins took that a step further by drafting him four spots ahead of his more productive and dominant teammate Devonta Smith at #6 overall. He figures to provide an immediate boost to the passing game.
Will Fuller is suspended for the first week of the season thanks to a PED violation a season ago, but hopes to serve as more than just a deep threat. The 99th percentile speedster was coming on in the short and intermediate areas last year, which is good news for a guy like Tua who still needs to work on passing downfield. Fuller can now provide skills in all areas of the field that can help the Dolphins, no matter if Tua starts uncorking more efficient deep balls or not.
Malcolm Brown is also a new addition, and figures to provide short yardage/goal line support. It’s not great news for Gaskin that both Brown and emerging runner Salvon Ahmed are both showing signs of life in training camp, but ultimately Gaskin still owns a big role in the passing game and should survive the addition of Brown to maintain status as an RB value on Underdog fantasy. Brown is not a fantasy option of significance himself.
What’s Uncertain?: Can Tua throw deep? He attempted a deep ball on a paltry 10% of throws last season, which was in the bottom 25% of the league. His completion rate on those throws was also very low, and it’s fair to question whether he can get full value out of his new receiving weapons. These kinds of questions are limiting the expectations of the WRs in fantasy drafts, and to some extent rightfully so. That said, there is also a big time arbitrage opportunity for somebody here if he makes a leap in year two. No member of this passing game is being drafted in the first 85 picks.
We can also call Myles Gaskin’s fantasy value uncertain. His carry rates in his last 7 weeks (not including Week 17) were 67%, 59%, 50%, 75%, 75%, 78%, and 61%. The target share matched at 25%, 9%, 18.5%, 14%, 27%, 5%, and 15%. These numbers are normally somewhat eye popping, but the addition of Malcolm Brown and the surprising play of Salvon Ahmed have made it difficult to simply pencil in Gaskin for similar work. We can also layer in the existence of Lynn Bowden as another complication to the situation, as he could very well get schemed touches. As of now, I think Gaskin is still a slight value in drafts given his possible role in the passing game. However, it is far from a certainty that he is afforded the opportunity to reach his potential.
Top Fantasy Play(s): Myles Gaskin, Tua Tagovailoa
None of the Dolphins are standing out at an “OMG” level now that preseason usage is calling Gaskin’s role into question. This reminds me of the Patriots, who intentionally structure their offense so that you cannot accurately predict where the production will need to come from. At his draft price, that makes Tua the best option of this group for me strategically. You can draft him late as a QB2 with very little risk in best ball, and he has upside to crush his draft cost without an outlier performance. I’d overall be wary of the Dolphins in fantasy, but feel fairly good about the uncertainty discounts provided for both Tua and Gaskin.
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