2021 NFL Betting and Fantasy Team Preview: New York Giants
Despite being without Saquon Barkley for a good chunk of 2020, the Giants were only a game away from a playoff spot in a putrid NFC East. Subpar quarterback play and a fresh coaching regime brought about some growing pains, but the continued development of recent draft picks on top of a strong offseason have brought about some optimism. 2021 brings about a full 17-game season and with legal sports betting continuing to pop up in new states, more users than ever will have access to a sportsbook via a few swipes on their screen. Will the Giants fall short of expectations or take a step forward? Let’s dig into the team for the upcoming season and see if we can find a few betting/fantasy angles.
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New York Giants Team Betting Preview
Win Total (over):7 (-125)
Games Favored:6
Games as a TD Favorite:0
Games as a TD Underdog:4
The Giants season win total sits at 7, with juice on the over. It’s clear the betting market isn’t expecting the Giants to have a ton of success – they are expected to sit below .500 – but the division they play in gives them real playoff hopes. Despite the addition of a real X receiver in Kenny Golladay, an investment of a first-round pick at WR and the return of a (hopefully) fully healthy Saquon Barkley, I still can’t get behind the idea of laying -130 on an O7. It’s obviously still the offseason, but a look at the Giants projected point spreads this season shows they aren’t favored by more than a field goal in a single regular season game. Meanwhile, they are at least 6.5 point underdogs in four games and are listed as small favorites in a few late-season divisional games where I’d argue the wrong team is favored. With all that said, the uncertainty of the division makes me hesitant to play an under here either. The offensive additions around Daniel Jones could keep this team competitive, especially if Jones himself can show a level of improvement from 2020.
While I wouldn’t play O7 wins at -130, I can get behind the idea of taking a flier on the Giants at +400 or better to win the division. There is simply not enough separating this division currently and while the Cowboys and Redskins are teams I’d expect to be a little better, the margin just isn’t that wide. A full offseason after year one for Joe Judge’s coaching staff should be beneficial, and a strong free-agency class could help the Giants hit the ground running.
New York Giants Team Projections Preview
Projected Offense Rank:27
Projected Rush Offense Rating: Average
Projected Pass Offense Rating: Below Average
Projected Points Earned:374.5 (Rank 28)
Rushing Opponents:
Projected Difficult Rush Defenses Faced:7
Projected Soft Rush Defenses Faced:5
Passing Opponents:
Projected Difficult Pass Defenses Faced:5
Projected Soft Pass Defenses Faced:8
Team Defense Rank:21
Projected Rush Defense Rating:Average
Projected Pass Defense Rating:Average
Projected Points Allowed:411.5 (Rank 13)
It is a little surprising to see the Giants expected to have the 27th ranked offense in the NFL given their offseason additions, but I’d imagine most of that is doubt around Jones’ ability in addition to questions on the offensive line. Golladay, first-rounder Kadarius Toney and even the signing of Kyle Rudolph should bolster an offense that already featured Evan Engram, Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton in the passing game. If Barkley can stay healthy and find lanes, the Giants won’t need some sort of vast improvement from Jones in order to outperform their projections.
The G-Men will take on what is expected to be a tough schedule of rush defenses – seven of their games are expected to come against strong rush defenses while only five are expected to come against the weak variety. Things are expected to be a little easier via the air, with eight expected soft passing defenses on the schedule. The Giants didn’t only add offense this offseason – Adoree Jackson and Reggie Ragland were both signed to help bolster the defense, and a second-round investment in Azeez Ojulari appears to be a good one. This unit had flashes of dominance last year and did return Leonard Williams, but they weren’t consistent all year. They are currently projected to finish 21st in team defense and 13th in points allowed, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they outperform both of those numbers.
New York Giants Fantasy Football Preview
Noteworthy Depth Chart
QB: Daniel Jones – Underdog Rank: QB16 (ADP QB22)
RB: Saquon Barkley – Underdog Rank: RB4 (ADP RB6)
RB: Devontae Booker – Underdog Rank: RB64 (ADP RB58)
WR: Kenny Golladay – Underdog Rank: WR24 (ADP WR26)
WR: Sterling Shepard – Underdog Rank: WR60 (ADP WR71)
WR: Darius Slayton – Underdog Rank: WR86 (ADP WR89)
TE: Evan Engram – Underdog Rank: TE15 (ADP TE16)
What’s New?: Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney, Kyle Rudolph, Devontae Booker
Golladay is the most notable of the offseason additions from a fantasy perspective. He was the only real X receiver available when the Giants swooped in, and his presence not only provides Daniel Jones with a big, rangy weapon, but also should make things easier on Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton and Evan Engram. The volume he’s likely to attract does eat into the ceiling of the weapons behind him in the passing game, but the attention he’ll get will benefit others in terms of matchups. Despite paying Golladay, the Giants also used their first-round selection on Kadarius Toney, a much different receiver but one who should help stretch the field and provide depth in the immediate future behind Golladay and Shepard. Toney’s versatility does allow for the Giants to use him in a variety of roles, so it’s very possible he gets involved early and any lapses from Shepard or Slayton would only figure to lead to more opportunities.
If surrounding Daniel Jones with as many pass-catchers as possible was the plan this offseason, the Giants did about as well as possible. They also added Kyle Rudolph to play alongside Evan Engram, and the two are different enough that Rudolph’s presence shouldn’t be a huge boon to Engram’s production – it’s more so the variety of options at receiver and a relatively slow 2020 that has bumped down Engram’s fantasy draft stock. Devontae Booker was also added as insurance at the RB position behind Barkley. I’m sure they hope he’s not needed much beyond stealing a series here and there or helping on passing downs, but he’s a worthwhile flier at the back of drafts without much other competition around him.
What’s Uncertain?: Can a slew of weapons get Daniel Jones over the hump? Will Saquon be back to his old self?
The quarterback spot is obviously the most important position in football, but it feels like if Jones is able to play like even a league average starter, this team could surprise people. They did have one of the strongest offseasons in terms of free agency, and that’s not even including John Ross who was added but has already suffered an injury that’s expected to keep him out awhile.
Barkley suffered an ACL tear in 2020 and his availability for Week 1 is still up in the air as of early September. It’d be wise for the Giants to take their time and make sure he heals, but his presence will be important and force defenses into tougher decisions against a budding aerial attack.
Top Fantasy Play(s): Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay