2021 NFL Betting and Fantasy Team Preview: New York Jets
The Zach Wilson era has started in New York, and let the comparison begin with other QBs the Jets passed on. The Jets are riding high with anticipation for the man they drafted #2 overall, and one of the world’s biggest sports markets is likewise clamoring for him to change their fortune. The Jets haven’t been to the Super Bowl since 1969, meaning their historic tradition of losing has out lasted 9 presidents. Sadly, it does not appear that the young QB will change that just yet.
Let’s have a look at the 2021 Jets below, and be sure to check out all the great sports betting, fantasy football, and DFS content available on RotoGrinders leading up to kickoff. We’ll be covering fantasy football with rankings and projections, DFS preseason with RotoGrinders Premium, and sports betting at RG and ScoresAndOdds.
New York Jets Team Betting Preview
Win Total (over):6 (-115)
Games Favored:4
Games as a TD Favorite:0
Games as a TD Underdog:7
The schedule does not look promising for an over on 6 wins, with 6 matchups against likely superior division opponents and deep underdog spots against Tampa Bay, Indianapolis, and at Denver. Winning 7 games against the rest of their schedule requires almost a clean sweep, which would be unexpected the way I view this team. They are likely to be improved from a season ago, but it’s not the level of improvement I suspect will translate into wins. I prefer the under 6 wins at -105, though it’s not currently a win total I have action on.
I am going to put some action on the Corey Davis over 825.5 yards receiving prop though. He is the clear number one option in this passing game that I consider to be a 1,000 yard receiver at median expectation, which is nowhere near the expectation of other top wideouts across the league. His performance in camp and preseason has offered little to refute the assumptions he came in with as a coveted free agent signing. I was willing to lay -112 on this at FanDuel, and feel confident I’ll be seeing a return.
New York Jets Team Projections Preview
Projected Offense Rank:29
Projected Rush Offense Rating: Weak
Projected Pass Offense Rating: Below Average
Projected Points Earned:360.5 (Rank 30)
Rushing Opponents:
Projected Difficult Rush Defenses Faced:5
Projected Soft Rush Defenses Faced:5
Passing Opponents:
Projected Difficult Pass Defenses Faced:5
Projected Soft Pass Defenses Faced:5
Team Defense Rank:24
Projected Rush Defense Rating:Strong
Projected Pass Defense Rating:Below Average
Projected Points Allowed:419.5 (Rank 9)
The fantasy strength of schedule for the Jets is not a stand out either way. I believe the Jets performance will not likely to have the excuse of an overly tough opponent schedule or the explanation that it was too soft if they succeed.
Sadly, that means we shouldn’t expect a big year from their disjointed backfield. Rookie Michael Carter and veteran Tevin Coleman are likely to do most of the heavy lifting on the ground. Neither player is being drafted in even the middle rounds of fantasy drafts, and that is as much a function of the lack of confidence in the Jets rush offense as it is their split duty projections with minimal receiving volume. These guys, as well as Ty Johnson and La’Michal Perine, are not terrible football players. They just happen to be on the wrong side of a bad game script scenario with too much competition for comfort.
The passing game has upside to beat their “below average” preseason grade, and it will likely start with the quarterback. If he plays above the traditionally modest expectations set for a rookie, then they could reach the levels of average production. Otherwise, there are just too many questions on both sides of the ball for us to think the Jets will be in position to rack up a ton of points and passing stats. I’m neutral to bearish Wilson, and therefore on the overall production of the passing game.
New York Jets Fantasy Football Preview
Noteworthy Depth Chart
QB: Zach Wilson – Underdog Rank: QB25 (ADP QB23)
RB: Michael Carter – Underdog Rank: RB40 (ADP RB31)
RB: Ty Johnson – Underdog Rank: RB45 (ADP RB63)
WR: Corey Davis – Underdog Rank: WR33 (ADP WR46)
WR: Elijah Moore – Underdog Rank: WR70 (ADP WR51)
WR: Jamison Crowder – Underdog Rank: WR72 (ADP WR78)
TE: Tyler Kroft – Underdog Rank: TE33 (ADP TE29)
What’s New?: A trio of rookies join the team to help bolster the new look offense. We discussed Zach Wilson and Michael Carter briefly, and these are two players I am simply not betting on in Fantasy this season. Quarterback is now a premium scoring position, and you’d prefer to hang your hat on the players that can do more damage on the ground and/or with a top caliber NFL offense around them.
Elijah Moore is a guy that everyone has been buzzing about in training camp. Tweet after tweet on my timeline has touted how good he has looked, both literally and figuratively. Apparently, he works out and does a lot of crunches. At any rate, he should be starting for the team right away and could come at low cost in daily fantasy contests. In seasonal leagues, the hype has already jacked up his price to the point where much or all of the value is gone.
I mentioned Corey Davis briefly as well above. Look for him to have a nice season as his role as the primary outside weapon is restored after a productive 2020 season with the Titans.
What’s Uncertain?: The running back rotation is a mess now, but if someone were to stake a claim to the majority role than it would quickly become a value spot. New head coach Robert Saleh is coming from San Francisco, where they hold in high regard a multi-back committee approach. This is where I feel none of the backs are likely to ascend to workhorse status, but injuries could quickly change that in the brutal world of NFL football.
You also add Quarterback play, lack of a premier TE group, and a relatively thin receiver corps to the list of the uncertain. Denzell Mims has quickly (and unfortunately) dropped out of the conversation for heavy usage here on this team, and names like Keelan Cole are the next best names you can find outside the long term starters. It’s not a situation at any of the mentioned position groups where an injury bodes well for the offense.
Top Fantasy Play(s):
Corey Davis – Cheap WR1 production for best ball and likely to be overlooked in DFS.
Ty Johnson – Late round bargain who could very well be the most productive pass catcher in their backfield.