2021 NFL Betting and Fantasy Team Preview: San Francisco 49ers
Following their Super Bowl appearance in the 2019 season, an injury-riddled 2020 season for the San Francisco 49ers led to a 6-10 record and them finishing last in the NFC West. Clearly though, oddsmakers are expecting a big bounce-back from this team and for them to be right back in the mix for the big game in the 2021 season.
And to add a little drama to a team that is shaping up to be one of the best in the league, do we have ourselves a little quarterback controversy brewing? By almost all accounts, Trey Lance, whom the 49ers used the third overall pick on in this year’s draft, has been outperforming Jimmy Garoppolo early in camp. How Kyle Shanahan handles this situation will have massive implications, not only on San Francisco’s season, but also on our fantasy football teams.
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San Francisco 49ers Team Betting Preview
Win Total (over):10.5 (+105)
Games Favored:15
Games as a TD Favorite:9
Games as a TD Underdog:0
What does a Top 10 projected offense and Top 5 projected defense mean? Well, if you’re the Niners, it means you are a favorite in a whopping 15 of your 17 regular season games, including being at least a touchdown favorite in nine of them. The only two games in which they are underdogs are the two road games against their toughest division foes, the Rams (+3.5) and the Seahawks (+1).
With how dominant this team is shaping up to be, I think their season has 12-5 or 13-4, at the least, written all over it. With little hesitation, the over on their Win Total of 10.5 is my favorite Niners bet. If you do your required shopping around, you can get slightly better odds (+105) on DraftKings (+100 on FanDuel and BetMGM).
You can certainly reach for more favorable odds, if you’re feeling frisky, by picking them to win the division (+190 on BetMGM is the best I see), but remember that this is one of the toughest divisions in football. The Rams and Seahawks are going to be really good this year, and I certainly wouldn’t be underestimating the Cardinals making a bit of a leap this season too.
PICK: San Francisco Over 10.5 Regular Season Wins (+105)
San Francisco 49ers Team Projections Preview
Projected Offense Rank:9
Projected Rush Offense Rating: Strong
Projected Pass Offense Rating: Strong
Projected Points Earned:449.5 (Rank 4)
Rushing Opponents:
Projected Difficult Rush Defenses Faced:4
Projected Soft Rush Defenses Faced:5
Passing Opponents:
Projected Difficult Pass Defenses Faced:3
Projected Soft Pass Defenses Faced:8
Team Defense Rank:4
Projected Rush Defense Rating:Very Strong
Projected Pass Defense Rating:Strong
Projected Points Allowed:355 (Rank 32)
Assuming Shanahan is able to navigate the quarterback situation correctly, this Niners offense is looking to try to get back up to what they looked like back in their Super Bowl season. In 2019, the Niners averaged the fourth most yards per game (381.1) and the second most points per game (29.9). In 2020 though, whether it was injuries, the Super Bowl hangover, or a combination of both, things fell off quite a bit. Although they were more middle of the pack in yards per game (370.1), their 23.5 points per game were the 12th lowest. Looking ahead to 2021, a ‘strong’ projected pass and rush offense rating has them squeezing into our Top 10 projected offenses.
This defense is where their bread is going to be buttered though. Despite their fair share of injuries on that side of the ball last season too (e.g. Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, etc.), they still managed to allow just the fifth fewest yards per game (314.4) in the entire league. The defense is anchored by their front seven, as they boast PFF’s #1 rated linebacker group and #9 rated defensive line.
San Francisco 49ers Fantasy Football Preview
Noteworthy Depth Chart
QB: Jimmy Garoppolo – Underdog Rank: QB31 (ADP QB32)
RB: Raheem Mostert – Underdog Rank: RB26 (ADP RB30)
RB: Trey Sermon – Underdog Rank: RB47 (ADP RB27)
WR: Deebo Samuel – Underdog Rank: WR26 (ADP WR35)
WR: Brandon Aiyuk – Underdog Rank: WR34 (ADP WR25)
WR: Jauan Jennings – Underdog Rank: WR114 (ADP WR111)
TE: George Kittle – Underdog Rank: TE3 (ADP TE3)
What’s New?: Hopefully a healthy offense…oh, and Trey Lance
We’ll talk about Trey Lance in the next section, but (hopefully) the other thing that is new about this offense is simply that they are going to be much healthier than they were in 2020. Last season, Jimmy Garoppolo missed 10 games. George Kittle missed eight games. Raheem Mostert missed eight games. Deebo Samuel missed nine games. Brandon Aiyuk missed four games. In 2019, we saw how explosive they can be when they have their main guys available. If that is the case this season, they are likely going to be far more like the 2019 Niners than the 2020 Niners.
What’s Uncertain?: The quarterback situation
This was an easy one to pick. Despite head coach Kyle Shanahan stating to the media that there is currently no competition in regards to who QB1 on this team is, the Trey Lance hype has already started. And apparently it has started due to Lance outplaying Jimmy G in the early part of training camp, not just because fans want to see the shiny new toy. What Shanahan decides to do—and when—has obvious fantasy implications. Lance offers that duel-threat ability with his arms and legs, which would give him the far higher fantasy ceiling. In his last full season at North Dakota State (2019; his 2020 season was cut short due to the pandemic), he rushed for 1,100 yards and 14 TD’s in his 16 games.
Top Fantasy Play(s): Whoever is QB1, Raheem Mostert, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle
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