2021 NFL Betting and Fantasy Team Preview: Washington Football Team
Washington wasn’t expected to do a whole lot in 2020 – they had the second-worst record in the league the year prior and had major questions at the quarterback spot – but they squeaked out a playoff spot thanks to partaking in the worst division in football. The future looks bright in Washington with a young, elite edge rusher in Chase Young and some pop on the offensive side of the ball with Terry McLaurin and second-year back Antonio Gibson. The additions of Curtis Samuel and Adam Humphries should give the also newly acquired Ryan Fitzpatrick a reliable stable of weapons on top of one of the better defenses in the league. Will they continue to rise in 2021 or will one of the other NFC East teams bounce back?
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Washington Football Team Team Betting Preview
Win Total (over):8.5 (100)
Games Favored:8
Games as a TD Favorite:0
Games as a TD Underdog:3
The Football Team has a win total of 8.5, and are projected to be favored in eight games this season. Playing in the NFC East is a big reason why they are here – half of their projected wins are against division foes and it’s again expected to be one of if not the poorest division in the sport. A theme with the Redskins is that the vast majority of their games are expected to be close and relatively low scoring. None of the games involving Washington have a spread of more than seven points. I think they will play a very similar style of football to 2020, Ron Rivera’s first year with the team, and this style of approach seems to bode well in a division that should generally struggle, especially defensively. Defense was the name of the game for Washington last year and the additions of William Jackson (CB) and Bobby McCain (S) should bolster a secondary that lost Ronald Darby and Fabian Moreau. Ryan Kerrigan’s transition over to the Eagles will be a loss felt on the defensive front, but Chase Young’s continued development on top of a deep pool of talent on the interior of the defensive line should keep this unit as the top defense in the NFC East.
I’m not all that interested in playing the O8.5 on the Washington win total – they are priced at +260 on FanDuel to win the division, and it wouldn’t be all that shocking if nine wins gets it done. I’d rather take the flier on the Football Team to be able to get by a division full of teams with major question marks. While there isn’t a whole lot of synergy yet, the addition of Fitzpatrick should help stabilize the QB spot and Samuel/Humphries provide him with varying skill sets that can give defenses a lot to think about. The Cowboys are the favorite in this division, but I still have Washington projected very similarly yet the market is priced very differently.
PICK: Redskins to win the NFC East (+260 on FanDuel)
Washington Football Team Team Projections Preview
Projected Offense Rank:19
Projected Rush Offense Rating: Average
Projected Pass Offense Rating: Average
Projected Points Earned:385.25 (Rank 22)
Rushing Opponents:
Projected Difficult Rush Defenses Faced:4
Projected Soft Rush Defenses Faced:5
Passing Opponents:
Projected Difficult Pass Defenses Faced:2
Projected Soft Pass Defenses Faced:7
Team Defense Rank:5
Projected Rush Defense Rating:Strong
Projected Pass Defense Rating:Strong
Projected Points Allowed:399.5 (Rank 18)
Even with the addition of Fitzpatrick, Samuel and Humphries, the Football Team is projected to be a slightly below average offense in 2021. With a diversified set of backs and receivers and a healthy FitzMagic, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Washington as a top 10-12 offense at the end of the year. We haven’t seen this group together yet and they clearly still need to prove it, but if health is on their side, they’ll absolutely be competitive. Whether or not an aging Ryan Fitzpatrick can make it through a full season is a very real concern. For what it’s worth, the Football Team is projected to face just two “difficult” pass defense matchups, while having seven “soft” pass defenses on the schedule. They aren’t expected to face a bevy of tough rushing defenses either – just four compared to five soft defenses – so the schedule shouldn’t be their enemy.
On the defensive side, things are expected to remain stout. Washington is projected to have the fifth-strongest defense in the NFL, and that seems warranted due to a strong pass rush backed by an above-average secondary. The Football Team did lose a little more on the defensive side of the ball in free agency compared to what they added, but they used their first-round pick on a linebacker (Jamin Davis from Kentucky) and addressed the secondary twice in the first five rounds.
Washington Football Team Fantasy Football Preview
Noteworthy Depth Chart
QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick – Underdog Rank: QB20 (ADP QB21)
RB: Antonio Gibson – Underdog Rank: RB11 (ADP RB11)
RB: J.D. McKissic – Underdog Rank: RB51 (ADP RB48)
WR: Terry McLaurin – Underdog Rank: WR11 (ADP WR11)
WR: Curtis Samuel – Underdog Rank: WR30 (ADP WR43)
WR: Adam Humphries – Underdog Rank: WR94 (ADP WR100)
TE: Logan Thomas – Underdog Rank: TE9 (ADP TE10)
What’s New?: Curtis Samuel, Adam Humphries, Dyami Brown
These additions come to an offense that already featured Terry McLaurin, Logan Thomas and Antonio Gibson. Sure, McLaurin is the only difference maker in that group, but the addition of another field stretcher with speed in Curtis Samuel will only aid McLaurin in terms of not allowing defenses to center in on him. Humphries is a different player, but his role in the slot will be vital with McLaurin and Samuel on the outside, especially so given that Logan Thomas can also be effective stretching the field. The Football Team also added rookie Dyami Brown via the draft, but he figures to have to make a huge impression during preseason or benefit via injury in order to see regular time early in the season. Brown is mostly known for his speed and does have dynasty league appeal, but probably won’t be on the DFS radar in the first week or two of the season.
What’s Uncertain?: Health of Ryan Fitzpatrick, How will Samuel/Humphries tie in
If Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t able to stay on the field, we’ll see either Taylor Heinicke or Kyle Allen take over and that’s not going to bode well. Fitzpatrick is 38 and will turn 39 during the season, and I don’t imagine his somewhat reckless style of play is all of a sudden going to change. While it’s not a massive drop off to Heinicke, this factor does make me a little squeamish when betting Washington futures. The roles that Samuel and Humphries play seem straightforward, but it’s not totally clear how they’ll eat into “(player-popup #terry-mclaurin)Terry McLaurin”:/players/terry-mclaurin-982511’s workload and what the pecking order will be behind him for targets. Humphries probably is a better bet for targets most weeks, but Samuel offers a lot more upside in terms of yardage.
Top Fantasy Play(s): Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, Logan Thomas