2021 NFL Betting and Fantasy Team Preview: Kansas City Chiefs Odds, Projections
What’s more dangerous than Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs? Mahomes & Co. looking to avenge an embarrassing Super Bowl loss.
The Chiefs have dominated the regular season since Mahomes took over in 2018, but they may have gotten too comfortable in the second half of 2020. They still finished 14-2, winning a handful of one-score games, but they didn’t show up when it mattered most.
Sure, almost any franchise would be more than content with a single Lombardi Trophy during the first three years of a new era with a fresh, young quarterback, but it’s Super Bowl or bust when a generational talent—maybe the greatest talent we’ve ever seen—like Mahomes is at the helm.
Entering the season, Travis Kelce looks to match one of the best single-season tight end performances in NFL history, and Tyreek Hill will continue to outrun double coverage, but a different Chiefs receiver is primed to pay off big in the early weeks of DFS.
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Kansas City Chiefs Odds
Win Total (over):12.5 (100)
Games Favored:16
Games as a TD Favorite:14
Games as a TD Underdog:0
Mahomes began his NFL career leading the Chiefs to back-to-back 12-4 records before the Chiefs finished 14-2 in 2020. Oddsmakers have set their win total at 12.5 heading into 2021, but don’t forget that the NFL swapped a pre-season game for an extra week on the regular-season schedule.
The Chiefs are favored in all but one matchup and are at least a touchdown favorite in 14 of those. They travel to Baltimore as three-point underdogs in Week 2, but if history is any indication, it’s not a road trip the Chiefs will fear.
While Baltimore routinely puts forth one of the league’s elite defenses, John Harbaugh’s aggressive blitz scheme has been no match for Mahomes & Co. In fact, Mahomes has been its kryptonite.
The two AFC powerhouses met in Baltimore last September, with the Ravens favored by roughly four points. Mahomes scorched the Ravens for 385 pass yards en route to a 34-20 Chiefs victory. When Mahomes hosted the Ravens in 2019, he delivered a similar 374-yard performance in the air during a fairly comfortable 33-28 win(Chiefs led 23-6 at half). And in 2018, Mahomes threw for 377 yards in an overtime win against the Ravens. I say all of that now because stealing a game as an underdog, which I like the Chiefs to do in Week 2, will place them in the driver’s seat to win at least 13 games.
Another thing NFL bettors should be mindful of is the Chiefs record against the spread early in the season compared to the latter half. The Chiefs covered in six of their first eight games, but they quickly fell back to earth, finishing 7-9 ATS by the end of Week 17. You can typically toss trends like that aside, but I think there’s something more here: the Chiefs play to their ceiling early in the season until they get a sizeable division lead, then they begin to limit their playbook and play more conservatively as they look ahead to the playoffs.
Instead of riding the Chiefs throughout the season, my plan is to bet on them early while adopting more caution further into the schedule. I truly believe the Chiefs might be the next great sports betting dynasty, but betting them blindly won’t work like it did in Mahomes’ first two seasons. However, I have no guard up when it comes to betting KC Chiefs Over 12.5 wins at BetMGM Sportsbook.
Kansas City Chiefs Team Projections Preview
Projected Offense Rank:1
Projected Rush Offense Rating: Average
Projected Pass Offense Rating: Elite
Projected Points Earned:498.75 (Rank 1)
Rushing Opponents:
Projected Difficult Rush Defenses Faced:7
Projected Soft Rush Defenses Faced:4
Passing Opponents:
Projected Difficult Pass Defenses Faced:5
Projected Soft Pass Defenses Faced:7
Team Defense Rank:11
Projected Rush Defense Rating:Average
Projected Pass Defense Rating:Average
Projected Points Allowed:382 (Rank 25)
The only thing that can stop the Chiefs from finding the end zone is an injury to Mahomes. Upgrades to the offensive line should help Mahomes stay healthy as well as give him extra time to dissect defenses downfield. Travis Kelce may find it difficult to eclipsing his career-highs from 2020, but he stands in a tier of his own regardless. With Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson providing salary relief, the Chiefs are a team I want to continue to stack in DFS even though the price of their studs — Mahomes, Kelce, and Hill — require concessions elsewhere. Their elite offense coupled with average projections for their defense make opposing WRs, QBs, and pass-catching RBs great for game stacks.
Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Football Preview
Noteworthy Depth Chart
QB: Patrick Mahomes – Underdog Rank: QB1 (ADP QB1)
RB: Clyde Edwards-Helaire – Underdog Rank: RB14 (ADP RB14)
RB: Jerick McKinnon – Underdog Rank: RB68 (ADP RB65)
WR: Tyreek Hill – Underdog Rank: WR2 (ADP WR1)
WR: Mecole Hardman – Underdog Rank: WR54 (ADP WR47)
WR: Demarcus Robinson – Underdog Rank: WR87 (ADP WR83)
TE: Travis Kelce – Underdog Rank: TE1 (ADP TE1)
What’s New?: Protection
The biggest changes in Kansas City have happened on the offensive line, and rightfully so. The Chiefs’ front office made it a point to improve their protection, with talent and much-needed depth, after the Bucs overwhelmed them in the trenches during Super Bowl 55. That news isn’t exciting, but it does help cement the Chiefs as the top offense in fantasy football.
What’s Uncertain?: How much fantasy value do Chiefs’ complementary receivers carry
We know the Chiefs will be one of the league’s top scoring offenses, but what we don’t know is the extent receivers like Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson, and Bryson Pringle will be included in their success. Third-year wideout Hardman is someone I want to buy low on across all formats, especially during the first few weeks of DFS contests. In fact, for DFS purposes, I might actually prefer Hardman start the season behind Robinson on the depth chart, though this does seem unlikely. As much as the Chiefs pass the ball, Hardman will have big-play opportunities no matter the case, but we’ll have more leverage against our competition if Robinson is perceived as the no. 2 wideout. Even if Hardman is the clear no. 2 receiver on the depth chart like we project, don’t count out Robinson and Pringle. They aren’t worth drafting in managed leagues, and only deserve late-round consideration in Best Ball, but they may become viable as DFS punts in large-field GPPs.
Top Fantasy Play(s): Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Patrick Mahomes, Mecole Hardman