2024 Genesis Scottish Open Betting Tips: Golf Picks & Predictions This Week

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-07-10 03:49:17

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down PGA golf betting tips for the 2024 Genesis Scottish Open at The Renaissance Club. Use the PrizePicks promo code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus for PGA Pick’em today!

With one week left ahead of the 2024 Open Championship, Rory McIlroy returns to the PGA TOUR after his disappointing loss at the U.S. Open. The PGA TOUR co-hosts the Genesis Scottish Open with the DP World Tour at the Renaissance Club outside of Edinburgh, Scotland. Rory returns to defend his championship before his last crack at a major championship in 2024. With a strong field, can Rory build some momentum ahead of The Open Championship? Let’s review betting odds, the field, and the course before unveiling this week’s golf betting picks.

2024 Genesis Scottish Open Odds

At the time of this writing – July 9th – you can find these odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners of the Genesis Scottish Open hosted at the Renaissance Club:

• 2023 – Rory McIlroy (-15)
• 2022 – Xander Schauffele (-7)
• 2021 – Min Woo Lee (-18)
• 2019 – Aaron Rai (-11)
• 2018 – Bernd Wiesberger (-22)

The co-sanctioned Scottish Open will host 156 golfers with the top 65 and ties making the cut. Thirteen of the top twenty golfers in the OWGR will compete this weekend with Scottie Scheffler and Patrick Cantlay electing to pass. Cantlay’s status could be concerning after he withdrew from the John Deere last weekend. Rory McIlroy headlines the field with Xander Schauffele, Min Woo Lee, and Aaron Rai playing as former winners at the Renaissance Club.

The field is strong relative to Scottish Open Fields before the DP World Tour working with the PGA TOUR. However, with so many DP World Tour members becoming full-time PGA TOUR golfers, half of the field represented by the DP World Tour lacks some punch. For example, PGA TOUR members represent every slot in the betting odds posted earlier in the article.

Let’s have a look at the Renaissance Club.

The Genesis Scottish Open Betting Tips & Preview

• Course: The Renaissance Club
• Date: July 11 – 14
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 7,237
• Greens: Fescue

A Tom Doak design, the Renaissance Club — in North Berwick, Scotland — is your typical European coastal course. The undulating fairways will be firm, fast, and surrounded by tall fescue grass. Golfers must contend with conditions as the weather is the greatest defense for this week’s golf course.

Water will not be a concern for golfers this week. The lack of ocean doesn’t mean golfers will miss out on the beach. Myriad bunkers defend the course with every green defended by a challenging pile of sand. When we first covered the Genesis Scottish Open in 2022, Padraig Harrington sat down to break down the course. The hole-by-hole preview paints a great picture of the course redesigned for the co-sanctioned event.

With weather playing a big role in the fortunes of golfers in either wave, checking the weather report before placing final bets or locking in your one-and-done selection will be vital to success this week. High winds can change as fast as we snap a finger and manifest a completely different course for either side of the draw.

The fescue greens are vast. Greens in regulation will not necessitate success this week. Instead, we should focus on proximity to the hole from different key distances and opportunities created in the approach game. Without strokes gained data from which to build a model, I will stick to broader options over the last 24 rounds. For this reason, SG: Approach or Ball-striking will grab a percentage of my model this week.

As ever with links-style courses, scrambling will be paramount. Players who struggle around traditional greens on the PGA TOUR might be aided by using a putter around the green. Players with experience overseas will possess the creativity to play a bump-and-run shot, putt into fronts, or put the ball in the air to reach a flagstick.

Strokes gained off the tee and distance will benefit players at this event — especially if the weather is dormant. With the Par 5s the best chances to score and five Par 4s sitting between 450 and 500 yards, length off the tee can’t hurt. Further, one Par 4 could be driveable as it ranks fourth in birdie percentage. While distance isn’t the only important stat, I won’t shy away from golfers with some length.

The course is not a traditional 71. Instead, there are four Par 5s. An extra Par 3 makes up the difference of one stroke. Even with an extra Par 3, historical scores suggest a field with this much talent will not have a problem scoring unless the weather is chaotic. We should expect a low winning score barring tough windy conditions. With that said, here are the categories I am considering for this week’s model before getting a final weather report:

• SG: Approach
• SG: OTT
• SG: P4 450-500
• SG: Putting
• BOB %
• SG: Par 5
• SG: ARG
• SG: Short Game

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The Genesis Scottish Open Golf Picks

Unless mentioned otherwise, all Strokes Gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 24 rounds on the PGA TOUR.

Tom Kim +3000 (DraftKings)

Even with a missed cut in his last start in Detroit, Tom Kim rates very well for this week’s Genesis Scottish Open. Kim opens our golf betting picks for this week with a boost on bet365 to +4000.

Since the event became a PGA TOUR event, Kim has back-to-back T10 finishes with 3rd and 6th place. Kim checks nearly every single box we are considering for this week. He rests in the top ten in SG: OTT and BOB gained. His putting leaves a bit to be desired over his last 24 rounds, but he rates well in ball striking and our key Par 4 range. At +3000, Kim represents some value with strong recent form and good course history.

I am writing off his last missed cut since he played so many consecutive events. Refreshed after a week off, he opens our betting card for this week. Find his best price on DraftKings Sportsbook or FanDuel Sportsbook.

Robert MacIntyre +5000 (FanDuel)

Last year’s runner-up takes our second slot at +5500 on a Monday bet. Bobby Mac has since won a PGA TOUR event and should be motivated to capture a title in front of his home fans.

MacIntyre doesn’t rate well on approach but checks SG: OTT and BOB gained. Where he excels is with his short game. MacIntyre ranks 8th in the field in both SG: Putting and SG: Short Game. With plenty of creative opportunities at the Renaissance Club, MacIntyre can mitigate his weaker approach game with a lights-out game on and around the greens.

Given the point of the season, with so few events left, MacIntyre could get some steam for one-and-done pools.

Thomas Detry +6000 (bet365)

My favorite bet of the week and likely my one-and-done selection, Thomas Detry takes up our next slot at an excellent +9000 price tag from earlier in the week. The public caught on to Detry’s performance at this course, and his comfort on the grounds at 60-1 is the best number you will find as of this writing.

Detry doesn’t necessarily rate out better than most golfers in this week’s tournament. He is, however, the fifth-best putter in the event and lost in a three-man playoff against Min Woo Lee in 2021. Detry has back-to-back T20 finishes at majors and hasn’t missed a cut in five events. He finished tenth the first year the PGA TOUR came aboard this event in 2022.

Detry will be a popular play in sports betting and daily fantasy sports. He was an easy call at his opening +9000 tag and will likely be my OAD selection in a less valuable event.

Quick Hitters

Byeong Hun An +6000 (bet365) – Ranks top twenty in ball-striking and approach. He finished third here last season.

Nicolai Hojgaard +8000 (BetRivers) – Has had a rough go on the PGA TOUR thus far but is filled with potential and finished sixth here last season.

Victor Perez +15000 (bet365) – Sits top 20 in SG: Par 5 and has been in solid form. Experience overseas makes this 150-1 price a no-brainer.

2024 Genesis Scottish Open Betting Card

I will parlay all this week’s picks with Rory to win The Open Championship. Each double will have a payout of 100 units to add to my current future on McIlroy. The total cost of these doubles for this week’s card is an additional 1.4 units.

One-and-Done Pick: Thomas Detry

Genesis Scottish Open Betting Units: 4.25

2024 Net Units: 247.3

The Open Championship Future Betting Picks

Before the Genesis Scottish Open tees off Thursday morning, I secured 200 units on Rory McIlroy to win The Open Championship through promotional betting and deposit bonus bets. The total cost for these promotional bets through arbitrage was 5 units over the last month. I am happy to have used arbitrage to boost Rory’s price to +4000 when he is listed on most sports betting sites at +700.

If I can secure any more promotional bets ahead of next week’s major, I will likely find another golfer or two to add to my card. Until then, I am hoping one of my outright golf bets this week adds another 100 units to this sum. Good luck this week!

Follow me on X at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with your wagers this week, and thanks for reading.

Image Credit: Getty Images