2024 John Deere Classic Betting Tips: Golf Picks & Predictions This Week

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-07-02 19:41:38

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down PGA golf betting tips for the 2024 John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run. Use the PrizePicks promo code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus for PGA Pick’em today!

Oh, the pain! If you told me that Cameron Young would be -17 heading into the back nine at Detroit Golf Club and he would need two birdies to win the tournament… well, I would be doing cartwheels all over my living room. Instead, Young — and others — were dreadful down the stretch leaving the door open for Cam Davis to pick up his second win at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

What feels like a bye week on the PGA TOUR will occur this week at TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois. The 2024 John Deere Classic offers many of the non-signature event players an opportunity to pick up a win, status, and FedEx Cup points. Let’s take a look at betting odds, the field, and the course before building this week’s betting card.

2024 John Deere Classic Odds

At the time of this writing – July 2nd – you can find these odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners of the John Deere Classic:

• 2023 – Sepp Straka (-21)
• 2022 – J.T. Poston (-21)
• 2021 – Lucas Glover (-19)
• 2019 – Dylan Frittelli (-21)
• 2018 – Michael Kim (-27)
• 2017 – Bryson DeChambeau (-18)
• 2016 – Ryan Moore (-22)
• 2015 – Jordan Spieth (-20)
• 2014 – Brian Harman (-22)

From the 165 players in this week’s field, the top 65 and ties will play the weekend. Jordan Spieth headlines the field in star power but falls behind a few golfers on our odds board. Sungjae Im is the betting odds favorite, followed by last season’s champion, Sepp Straka. Due to his recent form, Aaron Rai comes in third and seems to be a great fit for a course that demands consistent ball striking.

Luke Clanton makes another appearance after an excellent showing at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. The field is full of young golfers looking to make a splash on the PGA TOUR while all the stars travel overseas. While most will complain that the John Deere Classic possesses too weak a field, I love full-field events with hungry players. Even if most are birdies, every shot counts.

The John Deere Classic Betting Tips & Preview

• Course: TPC Deere Run
• Date: July 4 – 7
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 7,289
• Greens: Bentgrass

TPC Deere Run will not offer much defense against scoring. With winning scores nearing -20 over the years, don’t anticipate many struggles at the John Deere Classic. A bit short, the course offers doglegs and plenty of undulation. Golfers will use every club in their bag but should not be overwhelmed by the course.

Birdies, birdies, and more birdies. If a golfer doesn’t pile up birdies, he is not going on this week’s betting cards. SG: Approach is king but we will certainly include Birdie or Better % to find what golfers can score.

The course features three par 5s as the primary scoring opportunities for players. Without a doubt, players must make birdies on these holes to have a chance. The par 4s are not particularly long, with only four measuring more than 450 yards. The toughest hole is a par 4 that exceeds 500 yards. Players will be happy to par this hole and score elsewhere.

The tournament winner must make plenty of putts on these bentgrass greens. Dylan Fritteli and Michael Kim gained north of 7 and 13 strokes on the green when they won the John Deere Classic. S.H. Kim leads the field in putting this week over his last 24 rounds. Denny McCarthy, unsurprisingly, comes in at second.

Finding the fairway and getting off the tee won’t be a concern. Instead, getting to the appropriate locations to leave wedges into these gettable greens will be a focus this week. The plurality of approach shots come between 125 and 150 yards. Lucas Glover, the 2021 champion at this event, ranks second in the field in this proximity range.

SG: Approach is the key to this week’s model, but what else will we include? Here are our categories for this week’s model.

• SG: Approach
• Good Drives Gained
• Proximity 125-150
• SG: Putting
• Birdies or Better Gained
• SG: Par 5
• SG: ARG

Editor’s Note: Don’t live in a state with legal golf betting? Check out Underdog Fantasy, one of the top DFS apps for fantasy golf pick’em.

The John Deere Classic Golf Picks

Unless mentioned otherwise, all Strokes Gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 24 rounds on the PGA TOUR.

Denny McCarthy +2900 (bet365)

Denny McCarthy doesn’t necessarily rate well on this week’s model, but I am not sure I care. We have a wide-open field without plenty of star power. He can make putts in bunches. Most importantly, distance doesn’t matter all that much.

McCarthy finished 6th last season at the John Deere Classic. Denny ranks 39th in ARG and 2nd in putting. If he can have a strong ball-striking week, his putter will convert plenty of birdie looks. Like Cameron Young, I might have a bit of a bias. In any event, I used the bet365 30% boost on him anyway to get these odds up to 29-1. We will start here and look for value down the board.

Lucas Glover +5500 (BetMGM)

Lucas Glover checks in as our second bet this week. A former champion, Glover possesses a phenomenal course history and continues to embody the skillset required to thrive at this event.

The short game has not been great of late but the tee-to-green game has been great. Glover is one of the better wedge players in the field and won’t be short on course knowledge. Glover comes into this week with an extensive understanding of where to leave his golf ball on this course.

At 55-1, Glover feels like a nice buy. We will buy on him at a comfortable course.

Eric Cole +5000 (FanDuel)

At 50-1, I will take a shot at Eric Cole. After winning rookie of the year last season on the PGA TOUR, Cole has struggled in 2024. Yet, Cole finally put it together last week in Detroit with a 6th-place finish and a phenomenal all-around performance. Cole gained tee to green and with his short game.

Cole’s numbers do not flash well in our model because of his recent form. However, he thrived last season on shorter courses. Cole is still seeking his first win on the PGA TOUR, and this feels like a good opportunity to buy before this number gets shorter. At this number, an outright and top finisher or each-way bet feels appropriate.

Quick Hitters

Davis Riley +11000 (FanDuel) – Riley continues to make birdies at a high clip.

Justin Lower +15000 (Caesars) – We go back to the well after a solid week in Detroit. Leads the field in Birdie or Better % and ranks third in proximity 125-150 yards.

Kelly Kraft +30000 (FanDuel) – Kraft leads the field in approach. He is well worth a flyer this week at 300-1.

2024 John Deere Classic Betting Card

One-and-Done Pick: Denny McCarthy

John Deere Betting Units: 2.9

2024 Net Units: 250.2

The Open Championship Future Betting Picks

Rory McIlroy remains our only future bet for The Open Championship. Through promotional bets, I have amassed 80 units on McIlroy to go full redemption arc over the pond.

Follow me on X at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with your wagers this week, and thanks for reading.

Image Credit: Getty Images