2024 Masters Betting Trends: Four Picks to Win at Augusta This Year
Hello, friends. The best week of the year is finally here. This is the one event that’s impossible to talk about in hyperbole — the Masters is the best golf tournament on the planet. I’ll go a step further and say this is the best golf tournament in the universe.
While trends are made to be broken, they are still fun to sort through, especially at an event like this. You shouldn’t solely pick your bets based on trends, but they can certainly give you a good starting point when it comes to your outright betting card.
Before we go any further, I want to point out something very important — you should not factor in Masters betting trends that don’t have any actual correlation to golf. If you see that the last 5 winners ate bacon for breakfast on the day they won or something along those lines, please throw it out. There are a million trends out there but only a handful actually make sense when it comes to trying to predict the 2024 Masters winner.
I like to go through each trend and eliminate golfers along the way. Let’s dive right into my top five Masters trends for finding a winner at Augusta National.
2024 Masters Betting Trends
- Each of the last 10 winners were inside the top 30 in the OWGR
- 7 of the last 10 winners had a previous top 10 at the Masters
- 55 of the last 58 winners did not win back-to-back Masters
- 7 of the last 10 winners had a win in their previous 7 starts
- 13 of the last 14 winners were in the top 50 in driving distance
Trend #1: Each of the last 10 winners were inside the top 30 in the OWGR
Even though this is the year of long-shot winners on the PGA TOUR, there are very few surprise winners at the Masters. This has a lot to do with the course, the limited field, and the fact that there’s added pressure with this being a major. Each of the last 10 winners of the Masters were ranked inside the top 30 of the Official World Golf Rankings leading up to the event. The tricky part in the current landscape of golf is that there still aren’t OWGR points awarded to the LIV Tour. Personally, I think we need an exception for many of the LIV golfers in the field this week, as they would likely be in the top 30 in the OWGR if they were still on the PGA TOUR, or if the LIV Tour was accruing OWGR points.
Here are the golfers that I am making an exception for with this first trend:
Brooks Koepka (LIV)
Cameron Smith (LIV)
Joaquin Niemann (LIV)
Will Zalatoris (Injury)
Dustin Johnson (LIV)
Bryson DeChambeau (LIV)
Patrick Reed (LIV)
And here are some of the notable golfers that do not meet this first trend:
Shane Lowry
Corey Conners
Adam Scott
Min Woo Lee
This is a simple trend and one that helps us cut the list down to 37 golfers.
Trend #2: 7 of the last 10 winners had a previous top 10 at the Masters
We haven’t had a first-time winner at the Masters since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. More than any other course the golfers will play all year, course history matters at Augusta National. You will hear the words “experience” and “course knowledge” over and over again in golfer interviews throughout the week. If you don’t want to take their word for it, DataGolf has Augusta National as the most predictive course (by a wide margin) when it comes to course history. For this trend, 7 of the last 10 winners had a previous top 10 at the Masters.
There are a lot of elite golfers in the field who either haven’t played this event much or haven’t had a lot of success here. Unfortunately, we have to say goodbye to the following golfers:
Joaquin Niemann
Ludvig Aberg
Wyndham Clark
Tyrrell Hatton
Tommy Fleetwood
Bryson DeChambeau
Sam Burns
Max Homa
This cuts the list down to 21 golfers.
Trend #3: 55 of the last 58 winners did not win back-to-back Masters
Jon Rahm, it’s been nice knowing you. You don’t have to go home, but you can’t stay here.
This cuts the list down to 20 golfers.
Trend #4: 7 of the last 10 winners had a win in their previous 7 starts
We’ve covered overall talent (OWGR) and course history, but recent form is just as important. For the fourth trend, 7 of the last 10 winners had a win in one of their previous 7 starts leading up to the Masters. This proves that it’s very difficult to show up at Augusta National and find your game (at least when it comes to winning the event).
This trend knocks out a bunch of good golfers:
Xander Schauffele
Viktor Hovland
Sahith Theegala
Collin Morikawa
Cameron Smith
Will Zalatoris
Jordan Spieth
Patrick Cantlay
Justin Thomas
Cameron Young
Tony Finau
Russell Henley
Matt Fitzpatrick
Patrick Reed
Jason Day
More importantly, this cuts the list down to 5 golfers.
Trend #5: 13 of the last 14 winners were in the top 50 in driving distance
Some say size doesn’t matter, but that hasn’t been the case at Augusta National. For the final trend, 13 of the last 14 winners were inside the top 50 in driving distance the year leading up to the Masters. Hideki Matsuyama won the green jacket in 2021 but had more distance the year leading up to it (34th in 2020) than he does leading up to this edition of the Masters. He was 127th in driving distance last year and is currently 89th this year.
I suppose I am making somewhat of an exception for two LIV golfers with this trend since they don’t have any good LIV statistics that we can use, but the two in question have no issue when it comes to driving distance. It only took five trends and we have narrowed the list down to only four golfers.
Best Bets Based on Masters Trends
Scottie Scheffler +450 (FanDuel)
It’s to the point where every event that Scheffler plays, it feels like it’s his to lose. He has put up prime Tiger Woods tee-to-green numbers over the last two years and has finally unlocked something with his putter. In his last three starts, he won the Arnold Palmer Invitational, he won THE PLAYERS Championship, and he finished T2 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open with his B-game. The last time he finished worse than T31 was at the CJ CUP in 2022. In four appearances at the Masters, he has a win and three more top-20 finishes. While the +450 number is hard to swallow, he’s the best bet on the board if you are just hoping to have a sweat on Sunday afternoon.
Rory McIlroy +1000 (bet365)
If McIlroy doesn’t win the Masters at some point in his career, this will always be the one that got away. He’s had so many opportunities to don the green jacket over the years. At this point, it has to feel like more of a burden than an opportunity. With that said, winning at Augusta National would give him the career grand slam and put him with the all-time golf greats. He fits all of the trends laid out above. He has the talent, the recent form, the course history, and the distance needed off the tee. The big question is if he can stay mentally focused for all four rounds and avoid the blowup holes that have been plaguing him.
Brooks Koepka +2000 (DraftKings)
Koepka is the best golfer at majors that we have seen in the last 10 years. During that stretch, he has racked up five major wins. Whether it’s his preparation or his mental fortitude, he was built for pressure-packed situations. If you remember, he was in the final group with Jon Rahm at last year’s Masters and had the lead heading into the final round. He nearly didn’t make this list due to the recent win trend, but he won 7 starts ago at LIV Jeddah. While the +2000 number is appealing, we typically see a good result from Koepka leading into his major wins. In his last two starts on LIV, he has finished T45 and T28 (in fields of 54 golfers).
Dustin Johnson +4000 (BetMGM)
When it comes to value on the betting board, DJ might take the cake. He won the Masters in 2020 (in November due to COVID), he recently picked up a win at LIV Las Vegas, and his game has always been a great fit for major championship golf. I wish we had a better idea of how well he was striking the ball, but he’s always been a good driver of the ball and an excellent scorer on par 5s. It seems like a lot of the LIV golfers are more focused for this Masters than we’ve seen the last couple of years.
Best of luck with your bets this week and enjoy the Masters!
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