2024 PGA Championship Betting Tips: Golf Picks & Predictions This Week

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-05-14 20:15:41

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down PGA golf betting tips for the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla Golf Club. You can use the PrizePicks referral code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus today!

The table is set. Off of two consecutive victories, Rory McIlroy returns to Valhalla Golf Club with hopes to claim his 5th major championship. In 2014, Rory won the PGA Championship after two consecutive victories on the PGA TOUR at…Valhalla Golf Club. Will this be the year?

Scottie Scheffler will return and the nW…oh, I mean the LIV Tour guys will be back hoping to spoil Rory’s dream. Returning champion, Brooks Koepka, will vie for his 4th PGA Championship. This tournament has all the makings of must-watch television. Let’s look into betting odds, the field, and Valhalla Golf Club ahead of the 2024 PGA Championship.

2024 PGA Championship Odds

At the time of this writing – May 14th – you can find these odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 60/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners of the PGA Championship:

• 2023 – Brooks Koepka (-9)
• 2022 – Justin Thomas (-5)
• 2021 – Phil Mickelson (-6)
• 2020 – Collin Morikawa (-13)
• 2019 – Brooks Koepka (-8)
• 2018 – Brooks Koepka (-16)
• 2017 – Justin Thomas (-8)
• 2016 – Jimmy Walker (-14)
• 2015 – Jason Day (-20)
• 2014 – Rory McIlroy (-16)

The field is composed of 156 golfers. The top 70 golfers and ties will play the weekend of the second major championship of the season. All of the world’s best will be in attendance, with the LIV Golf Tour represented by Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Cameron Smith, and others. Koepka’s win last season pseudo-legitimized the ability of the players that joined the new world order of golf. Thus, we cannot overlook anyone in the field because of a different format.

Rory will play with immense pressure this week. He comes into this tournament in phenomenal form and is desperate for his 5th major. In what seems to not be a coincidence, Rory’s last major victory came at this course in 2014. He dominated the course off the tee and was able to win in the darkness. This week though, Rory will carry the weight of major championship pressure on his back.

Aside from pressure, Rory’s cause will not be helped by the return of Scottie Scheffler. After a hiatus to welcome his first child with his wife, Scheffler is back. His recent form cannot be ignored, as he was running laps around the most challenging fields on the PGA TOUR. Scheffler is the prohibitive favorite, and should be, even if Rory in on a great run.

All in all, the field is composed of the 103 top-ranked players in the world, 16 LIV golfers, 21 club professionals, and one Tiger Woods. Let’s give Valhalla Golf Club a look ahead of building this week’s preliminary betting card.

PGA Championship Betting Preview & Tips

• Course: Valhalla Golf Club
• Date: May 16 – 19
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 7,609
• Greens: Bentgrass

Designed by Jack Nicklaus in 1986, Valhalla Golf Club will host the PGA Championship for the fourth time. The long, challenging test has not changed drastically since Rory’s victory in 2014. The bentgrass greens were rebuilt in 2011 ahead of the previous major. For this major, the tee boxes and fairways were switched to Zion Zoysia grass to save money on water. Zoysia grass tends to be firmer and could potentially make for challenging fairways surrounded by long rough that is much more difficult to hold.

At 7,609 yards, the course is the 3rd longest that players will see in 2024. The par 3s average north of 200 yards, the 11 par 4s average more than 450 yards, and the 3 par 5s all play between 570-600 yards. The makeup of the course will force players to hit a plurality of approach shorts more than 200 yards. With rain in the forecast ahead of the tournament, the course could play a bit softer, forcing more shots from this distance.

Driving distance will be vital to success at this course, especially if we have a wet few days. In 2014, only 1 of the top 10 players in fairways gained made the top 10 of the tournament — Jim Furyk. The course is very, very long and the changes in fairway grass will make runoffs extremely penal. Players need to find ways to get shorter irons in hand. Benny An, Wyndham Clark, and Bryson DeChambeau join Rory atop this statistical category.

In 2014, Rory led the field in SG: OTT en route to his 4th major championship. Normally, SG: Approach is the paramount statistic when we model. This week, I think we must balance players’ exploits off of the tee with approach. Scheffler, Keith Mitchell, and Xander Schauffele join Rory in SG: OTT over their last 24 rounds.

Of note, Ludvig Aberg ranks right around 10th or better in both of the aforementioned driver categories. As a future ticket holder of Aberg, I will be playing close attention to any news related to the young star throughout the week. Reports were that Aberg experienced no pain with his injury, just swelling, and could have played in the Wells Fargo. Aberg seems like a popular target to challenge for an early major championship after finishing 2nd at the Masters.

Putting was significantly important at the last PGA Championship at Valhalla Golf Club. The course is only the third course on the schedule that features Bentgrass greens. These greens will be fast. Of players with at least 24 measured rounds on bentgrass greens, Denny McCarthy leads the field with 1.07 strokes gained per round on the surface. Other notable players in the field would be Tyrrell Hatton, J.T. Poston, Viktor Hovland, and Matt Fitzpatrick.

The PGA Championship began prioritizing difficulty in 2017 after Jason Day and Jimmy Walker scored well in the previous two championships. Since then, only Brooks Koepka and Collin Morikawa were able to finish double-digits under par for the week. This course will be a stiff test for the field, and we should focus on golfers who can grind out pars on the more difficult holes.

We will emphasize SG: OTT and driving distance, SG: Approach, SG: P, SG: ARG, Proximity 200+, and SG: Par 5 as our main categories. Let’s begin the construction of our preliminary betting card.

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PGA Championship Golf Picks

Unless mentioned otherwise, all Strokes Gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 24 rounds on the PGA TOUR.

Ludvig Aberg +2000 (FanDuel)

Knee injury be damned! Aberg fits this course pretty well given his prolific driving ability and his solid form in other areas. His 2nd-place finish at the Masters leaves me with little reservation about his potential to win a major at an early age.

With a free bet, I parlayed Scottie Scheffler to win the Masters with Aberg to win the PGA Championship ahead of my trip to Augusta. That ticket is worth 100 units. That said, I would have no worry about betting Aberg’s outright this week.

In my one-and-done leagues, I am in the first position in short fields. I will ponder this decision all the way up until late Wednesday night. Now that Rory and Scottie are both unavailable, Aberg must be in the mix. Will the knee injury be too much of a concern to use him at this major?

In any event, we bank on Aberg’s prodigious driving to vault him into contention come Sunday. His calm demeanor and steady hand when the pressure is highest are exactly the qualities we want from a potential major champion.

Wyndham Clark +4500 (DraftKings)

What does Clark have to do to be considered one of the elite golfers in the world? Over the past 12 months, he continues to contend in a big way at the biggest events on the PGA TOUR. He won the elevated Wells Fargo, the US Open, and an elevated (but shortened) Pebble Beach event. He has come 2nd place to Scheffler in two additional big events. Why is he priced in the mid-range behind golfers with résumés that do not compare? Max Homa? Joaquin Niemann? Xander Schauffele? (ducks)

I understand the markets are more concerned with handle and what is being bet. That being said, I am happy to keep including Clark on my card at big events. The PGA Championship continues to approach the difficulty of a U.S. Open each year. Clark possesses a skill set perfectly tailored for a long, challenging course. He ranks 4th in driving distance, 3rd on par 5s, and 3rd in proximity longer than 200 yards. He is a top-20 putter and showed the creativity — and frankly, the stones — to save par with extremely difficult up-and-downs at last year’s U.S. Open.

If sports betting sites are going to keep offering Clark in the 40s, I am going to keep taking it. At this number, he is a strong finishing bet proposition. If you still have him, he is a sneaky one-and-done pick.

Justin Thomas +5000 (bet365)

Leading up to this major, Thomas was another future bet that I locked in because of a promotional bet. I locked in Thomas at 40-1, but you can find him at +5000 at the time of this writing.

There is nothing particularly great about Thomas’ recent form given the statistical categories listed previously in this article. He does not rank inside the top 50 in any listed category. He missed the cut at the Masters, but…

He is coming off of back-to-back strong finishes at elevated events. He placed 5th at the RBC Heritage and finished 21st last weekend at the Wells Fargo. His strongest suit, his irons, have failed him of late, and his putter continues to be ice cold. That said, he has two PGA Championship victories on his résumé and will not be surprised by the layout. When conditions are at their toughest, he possesses the creativity around the greens to save par.

For Thomas, his success seems to be linked to the flatstick. If he can make enough putts and get hot with his irons, he should be in contention at a challenging course. If he can’t, I will be happy this was a free bet.

He is too thin, in my opinion, for a one-and-done selection this week.

Cameron Young +5500 (FanDuel)

Finally, we discuss one of two of my final Futures bets. I bet Young with the same number and amount of free bets as Thomas a few weeks ago. With Valhalla GC requiring length off of the tee, Young seemed to make plenty of sense at 40-1.

Now, we find Young at much more palatable odds because his form hasn’t really leapt off of the page. He did post a T10 finish at Augusta National and a 2nd-place at the Valspar. Since, he has put together middling performances at the elevated events with smaller fields. He ranks 114th in SG: Approach and has lost strokes T2G over his last two events. Yikes.

That said, we have seen him make runs at the majors, most notably, his runs at the PGA Championship and Open Championship in 2022. The talent off of the tee is there, and if this course really favors length, Young brings that in spades.

I am not overwhelmingly excited about this pick anymore but don’t mind having it in pocket to allow for additional bets.

Quick Hitters

Will Zalatoris +7000 — I bet this without even building a model. The number has gone up since. I don’t really care. With Zalatoris’ résumé at majors early in his career, this feels like an auto-bet for me.

Sahith Theegala +6000 — This is the last of my Futures bets ahead of the PGA Championship. When Theegala was in good form, I bought 50 units of him for this tournament with a free bet at 40-1. He has slipped down the board a bit since making this bet.

2024 PGA Championship Betting Card

General Thoughts and Strategy – Without a doubt, I am not done betting, because I have so many players on my card through promotional bets. With our success this season, I do think I have room for one more short golfer, and I am considering adding Brooks Koepka or Jon Rahm. Koepka would make sense as an outright and one-and-done selection for me, especially given the construction of my card and my position in OAD pools.

I will likely sprinkle a few golfers at higher odds, like a Denny McCarthy (bentgrass) or Min Woo Lee (distance + short game), but will finalize those bets by Wednesday night.

One-and-Done Pick: Check X on Wednesday for my OAD Selection

PGA Championship Units: 3.25 (will add more)

2024 Net Units: 137.75

Our Akshay Bhatia matchup victory over Shane Lowry was huge given the rest of our betting card. We spent 10.6 units and returned 9 units (5 units on Bhatia). We lose 1.6 units and get ready to dump plenty into the second major of the year.

Follow me on X at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with your wagers this week, and thanks for reading.

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