2024 Memorial Tournament Betting Tips: Golf Picks & Predictions This Week

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-06-05 14:15:51

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down PGA golf betting tips for the 2024 Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village. You can use the PrizePicks referral code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus today!

After what might feel like an off week to some, the PGA TOUR presents another elevated event at Muirfield Village Golf Club. Jack’s tournament, the Memorial, will welcome the best players in golf for one of the tougher tests on the PGA TOUR schedule. Last season, Viktor Hovland began his ascent to a FedEx Cup championship with a victory at this event. Ahead of the final two majors, will another player secure a breakthrough victory? Let’s take a look at betting odds, the field, and the course before building this week’s golf betting card.

2024 Memorial Tournament Odds

At the time of this writing – June 5th – you can find these odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners of The Memorial Tournament:

• 2023 – Viktor Hovland (-7)
• 2022 – Billy Horschel (-13)
• 2021 – Patrick Cantlay (-13)
• 2020 – Jon Rahm (-9)
• 2019 – Patrick Cantlay (-19)
• 2018 – Bryson DeChambeau (-15)
• 2017 – Jason Dufner (-13)

There will be 71 players who make up this week’s field, with the top 50 and ties playing the weekend. Xander Schauffele is back after his first major victory at the PGA Championship. Scottie Scheffler also returns after passing on the RBC Canadian Open. In a tournament that requires the most precise ball-striking, Scottie will obviously be instituted as a huge favorite. Last season, Scottie finished solo third despite losing 8.5 strokes on the putting surfaces.

Patrick Cantlay boasts two victories at Jack’s tournament, even if one was marred by Jon Rahm being forced to withdraw with a huge lead. Cantlay outlasted Collin Morikawa that year in a playoff. Last season, Denny McCarthy almost parlayed another incredible putting performance into his first victory on TOUR until Viktor Hovland chased him down with an unbelievable birdie on the 17th.

While the Memorial isn’t a major, the layout of the course, the myriad bunkers, and the strong field will make this event one of the more prestigious of the season. Let’s review the course before making our golf betting picks.

The Memorial Tournament Betting Preview & Tips

• Course: Muirfield Village Golf Club
• Date: June 6 – 9
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,569
• Greens: Bentgrass
• Average Green Size: 5,000

After Jon Rahm won the Memorial in 2020, the course was lengthened by 100 yards, re-seeded, and greens were redesigned. The tiny, lightning-fast greens were already a challenge but were further buttressed with additional bunkers. In total, there are 68 bunkers to negotiate throughout the course, and 13 holes have some form of water in play.

The course is very long with long, penal rough. Missing fairways borders on assessing strokes penalties. Finding fairways is of paramount importance, as approaching greens with irons is vital to success at this course. SG: Approach is typically the most important stat to consider for any PGA TOUR event but Muirfield Village emphasizes the importance even more.

The greens are small but treacherous to deal with. That said, the extreme speed of the greens seems to mitigate weaker putters’ issues. Three putts do not occur often, but getting up and down around these greens is a challenge. SG: Around-the-Green is normally a secondary statistic but should be bumped up because of the treacherous rough and bunkers that surround the greens.

As usual, the most difficult holes on the course are par 4s that fall into the 450-500-yard bucket. The 18th is quite the bear, possessing a nearly 25% bogey rate. Last season, Viktor Hovland practically won the golf tournament with an unbelievable birdie at the challenging 17th. This tournament will not end until the winner gets through the 18th hole.

The par 3s average about 198 yards, with the 16th being the biggest test. At about 200 yards, 20% of outcomes are bogeys and added to the 18th, the home stretch of this course requires nervy play.

The par 5s are the four easiest holes on the course and present players with the best opportunity at scoring for the week. While the added length might force a few more layups, players can dial in wedges to vital scoring opportunities. Players must hold serve throughout each round and score on these holes. With the winning score normally just entering double digits, a good week on the par 5s is all the winner will need to shake Jack’s hand.

That said, SG: Approach, Fairways, SG: Off-the-Tee, and Par 4: 450-500 are going to be key stats. We will surely include sand saves, Proximity 200+ yards, and putting as well as SG: Par 5. Let’s build our betting card for this week and pick our player for this week’s one-and-done.

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The Memorial Golf Picks

Unless mentioned otherwise, all Strokes Gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 24 rounds on the PGA TOUR.

Patrick Cantlay +2800 (BetMGM)

Cantlay’s recent form with his approach and proximity play place him towards the bottom of this week’s statistical model. That said, his history at this event piqued my interest. With two victories here, no missed cuts, and several other top finishes, Cantlay knows how to get it done at this event.

He ranks fourth in SG: Par 5 and is great around the green and outside of bunkers. With Cantlay still in play for all of my one-and-done contests, I want to open my card with him and potentially lock him in as this week’s selection.

Hideki Matsuyama +4500 (FanDuel)

Hideki Matsuyama is putting together a sneakily excellent season on the PGA TOUR. With a win at the Genesis, Matsuyama contended at The PLAYERS Championship and has a couple of additional T10 finishes to his name. Despite the form and success, we don’t hear much about Hideki each week.

Matsuyama features a victory at Muirfield Village on his resume, as well as additional great finishes. He leads the field in SG: Around-the-Green and ranks 8th in our target par 4 range. This should be a recipe for success when needing pars on this course.

Matsuyama, if available, makes for a very sneaky one-and-done selection if you are on the chase. Regardless, he is definitely on this week’s betting card.

Tony Finau +6500 (FanDuel)

I find it really hard to believe I live in a world where I can bet Tony Finau at 65-1 at a golf tournament. I am struggling with this.

However, I live in that world and can’t help but include him at this number. I understand that this isn’t a pedestrian field and that Tony is rightfully a tier or two below the top players on the PGA TOUR — at the moment. That said, this season seems to be defined by Tony’s challenges with the flat stick.

Viktor Hovland put together an incredible performance on the greens last season and was able to win the tournament. Tony Finau finished 32nd but lost more than 6 strokes on the greens. While history can absolutely repeat itself, what if Finau gains more than five strokes like he did in 2022? He is second in good drives and 14th in SG: Approach. We know that he is one of the better strikers of the golf ball on the PGA TOUR.

Tony has two T10 finishes at this event that routinely welcomed one of the better fields on the schedule because it is Jack’s tournament. At 65-1, he is worth a shot.

Quick Hitters

Akshay Bhatia +13000 (DraftKings) – I can’t help myself. I am mystified by his ball-striking numbers. At this number, I think I am willing to attack his outright and each way.

Lee Hodges +22000 (FanDuel) – Finished 12th last season at this event and then won in Minnesota. He is great out of bunkers.

2024 Memorial Tournament Open Betting Card

One-and-Done Pick: Patrick Cantlay or Hideki Matsuyama

Memorial Betting Units: 2.8

2024 Net Units: 115.55

US Open Futures

At the moment, I have used promotional bets on Brooks Koepka and Sam Burns to win the U.S. Open. I will have a full units update on this betting card for next week’s article.

Follow me on X at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with your wagers this week, and thanks for reading.

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