2024 U.S. Open Betting Trends: Four Golf Picks to Win at Pinehurst No. 2
It’s sad to think we are almost three-fourths done with the majors for the year, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t enjoy every second of U.S. Open week. I’ve always believed that trends are made to be broken, but putting together these betting pieces four times a year has been so much fun. We could not identify the PGA Championship winner, but these articles have helped us pick several major winners over the last couple of years.
This year’s U.S. Open will be held at Pinehurst No. 2 in North Carolina. Much like last year at LA Country Club, this course will provide a different test than what we are used to seeing at a U.S. Open. While the course is very long (7,500+ yards), there are only two par 5s and there is very little rough to speak of on the course. Golfers will have to deal with sandy waste areas if they miss the fairway, which creates a risk/reward approach off the tee. When golfers do find the waste areas, they will be at the mercy of lady luck when it comes to the lie and the angle into the green.
The greens at Pinehurst No. 2 look large on paper (6,800 square feet on average), but they play much smaller. They are dome-shaped, and with the absence of rough, they repel any approach shots that are even a little offline. We usually see the hack-it-out method around the green at U.S. Opens, but golfers will have tricky tight lie chip shots this week. Many will opt to go the Texas Wedge route that Martin Kaymer used time and time again when he won here in 2014. As you’ll find out shortly, scrambling is going to be key this week.
It should be an incredible week. We have plenty of premium content for all of your DFS and betting needs if you want to give it a try. Let’s dive into the trends and see what we find.
2024 U.S. Open Betting Trends
- 10 of the last 10 winners were in the top 32 in the OWGR
- 10 of the last 11 winners had a previous top 25 at US Open
- 8 of the last 10 winners had a top 10 in one of their previous two major starts
- 9 of the last 11 winners had a top 15 in one of their previous two starts
- The last 3 winners at Pinehurst No. 2 were top 5 in scrambling and putting that week
Trend #1: 10 of the last 10 winners were in the top 32 in the OWGR
Good golfers tend to win majors. This isn’t anything new. Each of the last 10 winners of the U.S. Open was ranked in the top 32 in the Official World Golf Rankings. The LIV Tour throws a little wrench into this trend, as they would have more golfers inside the top 32 if their events were awarded OWGR points. For our purposes, let’s set the cut-off point as the top 32 golfers in the world plus the next three best golfers on LIV.
Top 32 in OWGR
Scottie Scheffler
Xander Schauffele
Rory McIlroy
Wyndham Clark
Viktor Hovland
Ludvig Aberg
Collin Morikawa
Jon Rahm
Patrick Cantlay
Max Homa
Sahith Theegala
Brian Harman
Tommy Fleetwood
Hideki Matsuyama
Keegan Bradley
Matt Fitzpatrick
Russell Henley
Sepp Straka
Cameron Young
Tyrrell Hatton
Jason Day
Tom Kim
Byeong Hun An
Matthieu Pavon
Justin Thomas
Jordan Spieth
Sam Burns
Tony Finau
Chris Kirk
Sungjae Im
Denny McCarthy
Nick Taylor
Next best LIV golfers (according to DataGolf)
Bryson DeChambeau
Dean Burmester
Brooks Koepka
In the words of Rod Stewart, “The first cut is the deepest.” That’s certainly the case here, as we have cut the number of potential winners down from 156 to 35 with our first trend.
Trend #2: 10 of the last 11 winners had a previous top 25 at the U.S. Open
Even though the host venue changes each year at the U.S. Open, the USGA setup tends to have similarities at each course. Wyndham Clark broke a lot of trends with his win at this event last year, but each of the previous 10 winners of the U.S. Open had a previous top 25 at the event. Perhaps we see a young superstar like Ludvig Aberg break this trend again, but we are sticking with it for the purposes of this article. The following golfers do not have a top 25 at the U.S. Open in their careers:
Ludvig Aberg
Max Homa
Sahith Theegala
Sepp Straka
Cameron Young
Matthieu Pavon
Sam Burns
Chris Kirk
Nick Taylor
Dean Burmester
It’s nothing personal, but it’s time for these 10 golfers to hit the showers.
Trend #3: 8 of the last 10 winners had a top 10 in one of their previous two major starts
Recent form is always important when it comes to major championships, and 8 of the last 10 winners of the U.S. Open had a top 10 in one of their previous two major starts. Once again, Wyndham Clark was a bracket-buster for this trend last year, but so many things about his win at LA Country Club were anomalies. Here’s how our 25 finalists have fared in their last two major championship starts:
Scottie Scheffler (T8, win)
Xander Schauffele (win, T8)
Rory McIlroy (T12, T22)
Wyndham Clark (MC, MC)
Viktor Hovland (3rd, MC)
Collin Morikawa (T4, T3)
Jon Rahm (MC, T45)
Patrick Cantlay (T53, T22)
Brian Harman (T26, MC)
Tommy Fleetwood (T26, T3)
Hideki Matsuyama (T35, T38)
Keegan Bradley (T18, T22)
Matt Fitzpatrick (MC, T22)
Russell Henley (T23, T38)
Tyrrell Hatton (T63, T9)
Jason Day (T43, T30)
Tom Kim (T26, T30)
Byeong Hun An (T43, T16)
Justin Thomas (T8, MC)
Jordan Spieth (T43, MC)
Tony Finau (T18, T55)
Sungjae Im (MC, MC)
Denny McCarthy (MC, T45)
Bryson DeChambeau (2nd, T6)
Brooks Koepka (T26, T45)
It’s a little surprising how many of the golfers listed above have struggled in their last two major starts. It’s good news for us, though, as we can eliminate 17 of the 25 golfers remaining in our quest to find a winner.
Trend #4: 9 of the last 11 winners had a top 15 in one of their previous two starts
Recent major form is important, but so is recent form in general. Out of the last 11 winners of the U.S. Open, 9 of them had a top 15 finish in one of their previous two starts. Let’s take a look and see how our final 8 have fared in their last two starts worldwide.
Scottie Scheffler (win, 2nd)
Xander Schauffele (T8, win)
Viktor Hovland (T15, T3)
Collin Morikawa (2nd, T4)
Tommy Fleetwood (T20, T21)
Tyrrell Hatton (T18, T63)
Justin Thomas (T33, T8)
Bryson DeChambeau (T18, 2nd)
Just like that, we are down to the final six!
Trend #5: The last 3 winners at Pinehurst No. 2 were top 5 in scrambling and putting that week
This trend is by far the trickiest so far. For starters, there was a big renovation to Pinehurst No. 2 in 2011, so only the most recent winner (Martin Kaymer) played this version of the course. However, each of the last three winners at this venue ended the week in the top five in both scrambling and putting. The other tricky part with this trend is that it doesn’t give us a concrete cutoff point for the statistics. Let’s take a look at how our final 6 have fared in scrambling, and Strokes Gained: Putting this season:
Scottie Scheffler (4th in scrambling, 71st in putting)
Xander Schauffele (1st in scrambling, 16th in putting)
Viktor Hovland (150th in scrambling, 70th in putting)
Collin Morikawa (23rd in scrambling, 96th in putting)
Justin Thomas (59th in scrambling, 161st in putting)
Bryson DeChambeau (15th in scrambling, 14th in putting)
We’ve seen scrambling be the weakest part of Hovland’s game since he came on the PGA TOUR. He’ll need to have an outlier week with the short game if he’s going to contend. I’m fine crossing him off our list of potential winners. Thomas used to be an elite scrambler, but his putting has been ice-cold all year. He’s going to have a tough time winning if he’s one of the worst in the field with the flat-stick. DeChambeau’s numbers look better than they actually are, as there are only 55 golfers in LIV’s statistics. However, they are good enough for me to keep him in the mix.
2024 U.S. Open Betting Trends Finalists
Scottie Scheffler +333 (BetMGM)
Xander Schauffele +1100 (FanDuel)
Collin Morikawa +1400 (DraftKings)
Bryson DeChambeau +2000 (BetMGM)
We have an all-American group of finalists in the betting trends article for the U.S. Open. Scheffler and Schauffele have been the best two golfers on the planet this year and have claimed the first two majors of the season. Morikawa already has two major wins under his belt and comes into the week in scorching form after finishing in the top 4 in his last three starts. DeChambeau has contended in each of the first two majors this year and won the 2020 U.S. Open at Winged Foot.
All four of these golfers are viable options in the outright market this week. This is likely Scheffler’s event to lose, but it’s hard to find value in the current +333 number. Schauffele might be the most complete golfer on TOUR right now, but do we really think he’s going to win back-to-back majors? From a value standpoint, I’m leaning toward Morikawa (+1400) and DeChambeau (+2000). And if you are scared of Scheffler (rightly so), don’t hesitate to check out the “Winner Without Scheffler” markets.
Thanks for reading, and good luck this week!
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