2025 Masters Betting Trends: Two Picks to Win at Augusta This Year
Hello friends, Masters week is finally here. This article is not meant to break down the ins and outs of Augusta National Golf Club. If you are looking for that, the always free PGA First Look has you covered. This article has one purpose and one purpose only — to break down betting trends over the years and see which golfers meet all the criteria for this year’s Masters..
Are trends made to be broken? Absolutely. They often feature arbitrary cut-off points and often have data that is clearly not predictive in nature. Does Duke’s record on Monday nights in the month of January have anything to do with their ability to win a random game in January of 2026? Nope.
However, not all trends are bad. They can often point us in the right direction, especially in a golf event like the Masters, which is held at the same course every year. If the trend is logical and has predictive value, perhaps it has some use.
While I’m not a huge proponent of trends (especially for DFS), this is one of my favorite articles to put together every year. It’s fun going through the trends while eliminating golfers along the way. There always seems to be a surprise name or two that checks all the boxes. We’ll see if that’s the case here in 2025.
I’ve combed the internet and have found 8 trends that it usually takes to win the Masters. Let’s have some fun and start eliminating this week’s field.
2025 Masters Betting Trends
- Trend #1: Each of the last 10 winners have been in the top 30 in the OWGR
- Trend #2: No first-timer has won the Masters since 1979 (Fuzzy Zoeller)
- Trend #3: 22 of the last 25 winners finished in the top 40 of the previous Masters
- Trend #4: No winner has missed the cut the week before since 2009 (Angel Cabrera)
- Trend #5: 12 of the last 14 winners had at least 4 professional wins worldwide
- Trend #6: 15 of the last 16 winners ranked inside the top 50 in Driving Distance
- Trend #7: Nobody has won back-to-back Masters since 2002 (Tiger Woods)
- Trend #8: 7 of the last 10 winners had a win earlier that year
Trend #1: Each of the last 10 winners have been in the top 30 in the OWGR
Good players tend to win majors. There are very few long-shot winners at the Masters. You’ll get your occasional +3000 or +5000 winner, but they are almost always an elite golfer. Each of the last 10 winners have been ranked 30th or better in the Official Golf World Rankings coming into the Masters. We do have the little issue of LIV golfers not getting any OWGR rankings for their starts, so I’ve made an exception for their top 3 golfers in the field who aren’t currently in the top 30 of the OWGR.
We say farewell to…
Tom Kim
Adam Scott
Tony Finau
Byeong Hun An
Sam Burns
Jason Day
Harris English
Justin Rose
Taylor Pendrith
Denny McCarthy
And many non-notable names
The 3 LIV golfers whom I made the special exemption for were Brooks Koepka, Jon Rahm, and Joaquin Niemann. Before you ask about Bryson DeChambeau and Tyrrell Hatton, they are already in the top 30 of the OWGR. This means we have 33 golfers left after the first round of cuts.
Trend #2: No first-timer has won the Masters since 1979 (Fuzzy Zoeller)
As noted in the introduction, trends are made to be broken. Ludvig Aberg nearly broke this trend in 2024, as he was neck-and-neck with Scottie Scheffler heading into the back 9. Of the 33 golfers remaining, only 3 are first-timers this year.
Hit the bricks, you three…
Maverick McNealy
Thomas Detry
Aaron Rai
Trend #3: 22 of the last 25 winners finished in the top 40 of the previous Masters
Experience matters at Augusta National. Not only experience, but recent experience, as 22 of the last 25 winners finished in the top 40 at the previous Masters.
The following golfers failed to finish in top 40 at the 2024 Masters. Bye, Felicia…
Viktor Hovland
Justin Thomas
Wyndham Clark
Sungjae Im
Nick Taylor
Sam Burns
Shane Lowry
Sahith Theegala
Jon Rahm
Brooks Koepka
Tony Finau
Robert MacIntyre (didn’t play)
Billy Horschel (didn’t play)
J.J. Spaun (didn’t play)
Trend #4: No winner has missed the cut the week before since 2009 (Angel Cabrera)
Recent form is important heading into any major, so it makes sense that golfers coming off a missed cut the week before the Masters wouldn’t end up donning the green jacket.
The following golfers missed the cut at last week’s Valero Texas Open. Catch you on the flip side..
Akshay Bhatia
Hideki Matsuyama
Ludvig Aberg
Tom Kim
Trend #5: 12 of the last 14 winners had at least 4 professional wins worldwide
Golfers who haven’t found the winner’s circle often don’t tend to find it at Augusta National. It makes sense that 12 of the last 14 winners had at least 4 professional wins. Tommy Fleetwood will be happy, as we are counting professional wins worldwide. He’s still yet to win on this side of the pond but has plenty of wins worldwide.
This trend eliminates 4 golfers. Don’t let the door hit you on the way out…
Sepp Straka
Byeong Hun An
Joaquin Niemann
Corey Conners
After the first 5 trends, we are down to 13 golfers who could potentially win the Masters.
Trend #6: 15 of the last 16 winners ranked inside the top 50 in Driving Distance
Augusta National is a par 72 that measures over 7,500 yards. They mow the grass against the grain in order to limit roll-out on the fairways, which makes the course play even longer. On top of that, the scoring holes are the 4 par 5s and the drivable par 4. It’s no surprise that 15 of the last 16 winners were in the top 50 in Driving Distance heading into the Masters.
We have to say goodbye to some extremely good golfers here. Until we meet again…
Collin Morikawa
Russell Henley
Tommy Fleetwood
Lucas Glover
Adam Scott
Keegan Bradley
Patrick Cantlay
Tyrrell Hatton (averaging 299 yards on LIV)
Trend #7: Nobody has won back-to-back Masters since 2002 (Tiger Woods)
Believe it or not, Scottie Scheffler is well outside of the top 50 in Driving Distance this year, but I had to include this trend because I love a good Tiger Woods statistic.
See ya next year, Scottie…
And just like that, we are down to 4 golfers.
Trend #8: 7 of the last 10 winners had a win earlier that year
For the final trend, I was deciding between the one above and this one — 7 of the last 10 winners finished outside the top 10 in the previous Masters. Ultimately, it didn’t matter which one I picked because the same two golfers failed to meet each of these trends.
Bryson DeChambeau and Xander Schauffele have yet to pick up a win in 2025, and they both finished in the top 10 at the Masters in 2024.
Toodle-oo, kangaroos.
Based on the 8 trends above, we have eliminated all but 2 golfers for the 2025 Masters. Obviously, another golfer could easily win this week, but it would be fun if the trends pointed us in the right direction. I’ll have a bigger betting card than just the 2 in this article, but I am going to include both on my outright card.
Without further ado, here they are…
Trend Winners for the 2025 Masters
Rory McIlroy +650 (DraftKings)
Could this finally be the year Rory breaks through and wins his first green jacket to complete the career grand slam? He seems to be in a great place mentally, his game is firing on all cylinders, and I’m not sure there is a better fit for Augusta National on paper (perhaps Scottie Scheffler). McIlroy just picked up a win at THE PLAYERS and has 3 wins in his last 7 starts worldwide. If he’s in the mix on Sunday, perhaps he can avoid the back-9 mistakes that have haunted him in majors the last few years.
Min Woo Lee +5500 (FanDuel)
Lee was a surprise name to meet all 8 of the trends above. It would be fun to see him pull off the long-shot win. Not only for this article but because he’s one of the more entertaining golfers on the PGA TOUR. He just picked up a win in Houston, he has 2 top 25s at the Masters in 3 appearances, he’s one of the longest hitters in the field, and he has 5 career wins (1 on the PGA TOUR, 1 on the European Tour, and 1 on the Asian Tour). He’s worth a look at +5500.
As always, thanks for reading. Sharing this around would be much appreciated. I hope everyone has a great week at the Masters!
Image Credit: Imagn