2023 3M Open: PGA Golf Betting Picks This Week
This week, Joe Cistaro delivers 3M Open golf betting picks as golfers prepare for TPC Twin Cities.
- Tony Finau returns to defend his title.
- The 3M Open is the penultimate tournament in the 2023 regular season.
- Justin Thomas is committed to the field as he sits outside of the top 70 golfers in FedEx Cup points.
- Find out where you can test out Fanatics Sportsbook before the golf tournament begins.
- More 3M Open details and tips below!
In the penultimate tournament of the 2023 regular season, players head to TPC Twin Cities to grab as many FedEx Cup points as possible. Only the top 70 players make the playoffs this season and several of this week’s golfers desperately need points to make that cut line. After a couple of huge events, this event is a bit of a downshift by PGA Tour standards but don’t tell that to the players in the field. Every week presents an opportunity to grab a first win, secure a card, gather points, and of course, make a ton of money.
Start with our betting preview and then let’s build this week’s betting card.
2023 3M Open Betting Odds
At the time of this writing – Wednesday, July 26, 2023 – you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.
| Golfer | Odds (7/26) |
|---|---|
| Tony Finau | +1600 |
| Cameron Young | +1600 |
| Sungjae Im | +1600 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +1800 |
| Sepp Straka | +2200 |
| Justin Thomas | +2500 |
| Emiliano Grillo | +2500 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +2800 |
| Cam Davis | +3300 |
| Adam Hadwin | +3500 |
| Sahith Theegala | +4000 |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | +4000 |
| Gary Woodland | +4000 |
| Keith Mitchell | +4500 |
| Aaron Rai | +4500 |
| Stephen Jaeger | +4500 |
| Beau Hossler | +4500 |
| J.J. Spaun | +4500 |
| J.T. Poston | +4500 |
| Lucas Glover | +4500 |
| Mark Hubbard | +4500 |
| Patrick Rodgers | +4500 |
| Eric Cole | +4500 |
2023 3M Open Betting Preview
- Course: TPC Twin Cities
- Date: July 27 – 30
- Par: 71
- Yardage: 7,431
- Greens: Bentgrass
Key Statistics
- SG: Approach
- SG: OTT
- SG: Par 5
- BOB%
- Bogey Avoidance
Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 24 rounds on the PGA Tour.
3M Open Picks and Predictions
Ludvig Aberg – Best Odds +2800 (BetMGM)
Down the stretch in the 2022 season, we all witness the emergence of Tom Kim as he burst onto the scene and captured his first title at the Wyndham Championship. Ludvig Aberg has already burst onto the scene. At TPC Twin Lakes, we might see his true ascension.
In a weaker field relative to recent events, Aberg vaults to the top of the odds board. He missed a cut in Scotland but was otherwise tearing it up through his first forays on tour. On a course that rewards great drivers of the golf ball, we have to consider Aberg.
He is third in the field in Opportunities Gained and third in strokes gained on par fives. Yes, please. We open our card with the young gun.
Stephen Jaegar – Best Odds +4500 (BetMGM)
Stephen Jaegar is back. After missing the last couple weeks of our lives over the pond, Jaegar is back as one of our favorite “ready-to-break-through” candidates.
Jaegar checks most of our boxes this week. Long off the tee, excelling on Par 5’s (3rd), and creating opportunities (7th) are all facets of Jaegar’s game that put him in play this week at 45/1. Just inside the top 70 in FedEx Cup points, this is a big week for the budding talent.
We make him our second golfer for just under a shade of a unit.
Austin Eckroat – Best Odds +5500 (BetMGM)
Better numbers were available earlier in the week, but Austin Eckroat is back on the betting card this week. We made him our top golfer a few weeks ago and he missed a cut. I will take the blame for this, Austin. This week, however, you owe me one.
Over the last 24 rounds, Eckroat ranks first in the model I created incorporating the aforementioned key statistics. He has knocked on the door before this season and seems poised to ascend soon. Eckroat is just a hair inside the top 70 of the FedEx Cup. A missed cut is not an option for him this week, and a victory would obviously seal up a playoff spot.
With a lot on the line, we make Eckroat the third play on our betting card.
Doug Ghim – Best Odds +8000 (FanDuel)
Finally, we get to Doug Ghim. Ghim was a player we loved including as a longshot over the last couple of years, but he seemed to lose his way a bit this season.
Aside from a missed cut at the Scottish Open, things were trending for Ghim over the last month. With several made cuts in a row and the form flashing, Ghim regains our attention at 80/1. Way outside of the top 70 in FedEx Cup points, Ghim will need to do something magical to reach the playoffs. While putting is still a persistent issue for Ghim, the ball striking is getting back to form. Ghim is 14th in both SG: OTT and SG: Approach while resting inside the top quarter of the field in most of our other categories.
He is a flier at 80/1.
2023 Open Championship Betting Card
| Golfer | Odds | Units | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ludvig Aberg | +2800 | 1.2 | 33.6 |
| Stephen Jaegar | +4500 | 0.75 | 33.75 |
| Austin Eckroat | +5500 | 0.6 | 33 |
| Doug Ghim | +8000 | 0.4 | 32 |
3M Open Total Units in Play – 2.95
2023 Net Units: +19.45
The Open Championship raked us over the coals so we can use a cheap week ahead of the playoffs. I am looking to avoid the very top of the board even though it feels very likely that one of the top five golfers could run away with this one. I will update Twitter on Wednesday night with the final card for the week and place live bets as the week progresses.
Editor’s Note: Don’t live in a state with legal golf betting? Check out our Underdog promo code, one of the top DFS apps for fantasy golf pick’em.
Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with all of your wagers this week, and thanks for reading.