3M Open Odds: Golf Betting Picks & Predictions This Week

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2022-07-20 16:49:01

Joe Cistaro previews 3M Open PGA odds and golf betting tips this week. Use the PrizePicks promo code ‘GRINDERS’ to claim a $100 deposit bonus on golf props today!

This week the PGA Tour travels to Blaine, Minnesota for the fourth edition of the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities. With The Open Championship behind us and an exodus of talent to LIV golf, the field for this event is not filled with top stars. The dearth of the elite opens up an opportunity for someone to make a big move for FedEx Cup points, PGA Tour status, and of course, a pile of money. We will start with the betting odds followed by a course breakdown and some outright betting picks.

3M Open Odds at BetMGM Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – July 19th – you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

Here are all of the winners of the 3M Open:

• 2021 – Cameron Champ (-15)
• 2020 – Michael Thompson (-19)
• 2019 – Matthew Wolff (-21)

As mentioned in the opening blurb, the field this year for the 3M Open is extremely weak. We know the field is going to be a bit weaker because this event follows The Open Championship but the onset of the LIV Tour has poached many golfers who would likely tee it up this week. Golfers like past champion Matthew Wolff, Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed, and Bryson DeChambeau all played in this event prior to their exit. Therefore, at the time of this writing on Tuesday, we have a field headlined by Hideki Matsuyama, Tony Finau, and Sungjae Im.

Cameron Champ returns to defend last year’s championship at palpable odds. This field seems primed for a breakout victory for a budding star such as Maverick McNealy, Sahith Theegala, or Davis Riley. Cameron Tringale is also in the field as possibly the most successful golfer on tour to have yet to win an event — with regard to money. Rickie Fowler and Jason Day carry the veteran banner this week and might need a win even more than their younger peers.

Let’s take a peek at TPC Twin Cities.

2022 3M Open Betting Preview

• Course: TPC Twin Cities
• Date: July 21 – 24
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 7,431 yards
• Greens: Bentgrass

The history of the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities suggests a layout and tournament that can be won by a variety of types of golfers. Cameron Champ and Matthew Wolff both fall under the bomber category. Yet, when Cameron Champ won he won with his putter — gaining more than 8 strokes putting on the week. When Matthew Wolff won he gained 9.5 strokes on approach.

While bombers seem to do well at the course, shorter hitters aren’t incapable of playing well. Adam Hadwin boasts two T10 finishes at this event. Hadwin placed fourth in 2019 the same year that Brian Harman made the top ten. No particular type of golfer seems to excel at this course in its short history.

One facet of golf that doesn’t seem to be wildly important in the three-year history of the tournament is around-the-green play. The aforementioned Hadwin fourth-place finish came with more than 3 strokes lost around the green. In 2019, none of the top sixteen performers around the green came inside the top ten of the field.

So, what about the course? TPC Twin Cities does not seem to be that stiff a test for PGA Tour Pros. With winnings scores north of double digits, players will need to make birdies to compete. The course is relatively long for a Par 71 but features A LOT of water. The 27 water hazards are the course’s greatest defense barring a whacky weather week. There is plenty of sand to go along with our water so players will need to keep the ball in play and stay out of trouble.

The course features three Par 5’s which represent the easiest and best scoring opportunities for the field. The twelfth hole carries a birdie rate north of 50% while the other two feature rates greater than 30%. These holes must be taken advantage of for players to perform well at the event. Many of the top ten players in the top five scoring cash in for a Top 10 finish at this event with the Par 5’s carrying the highest strokes gained per hole on the course.

Similarly, putting, unlike SG: ARG, seems to be pretty important. This makes plenty of sense at a potential birdiefest but is unfortunately very challenging to predict. With the inherent variance with putting statistics and performances, we should weigh putting but not go overboard. Cameron Champ is not historically a great putter but ate these greens up in 2021. I will likely look at SG: Putting over the longer sample size and use it as a way of flipping a coin for betting and DFS lineups.

The Par 3’s, not shockingly, are a few of the toughest holes on the course. Three of the holes stretch out greater than 200 yards and will likely be a deciding factor come Sunday. Players will not need to record birdies at these holes but certainly will be aided by pars.

The odds for some of our choices are shorter than we are accustomed to for PGA Tour events. Whenever I am asked to pay very short odds on golfers that are normally 50/1 or more, I tend to lean towards betting longer odds for recreational purposes. As the PGA Tour season winds down, I don’t think leaking units in these more variant fields is a prudent approach. My betting card will feature the following golfers.

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2022 3M Open Betting Picks

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.

J.T. Poston +4000 (PointsBet)

We nailed J.T. Poston as a post-article addition at the John Deere Classic. Poston was a perfect fit with his incredible wedge game and putting. So, why can’t this work at TPC Twin Cities?

Poston is not outclassed in this field after placing 28th last year in Blaine. His recent win at the John Deere displayed how poised Poston was and how lethal he truly could be if given opportunities with a wedge in hand. He didn’t make the cut at St. Andrews but after back-to-back second and first place finishes on tour, a letdown was expected. Poston ranks second in this field in strokes gained on Par 4’s and third in BOB gained. While I would not argue that all of the golfers over 25-1 are more likely to win this event, I just prefer to pay less to get more starting in this range.

A single-unit bet on J.T. Poston to win this event wins 40 units. So, we begin here and hope that Poston takes advantage of the opportunity to improve on his 22nd-ranked FedEx Cup standing. PointsBet or BetMGM features the same price.

Adam Svensson +4000 (BetMGM)

Skipping the top of the oddsboard lets us take on another golfer in this price range. Adam Svensson is trending and seems poised to break through with a first career tour victory.

Svensson had it dialed in at the Barbasol Championship before ceding the lead over the weekend. Svensson ranks seventh in approach in this field and second in BOB. His noted bugaboo was his putting earlier this season but in this field… he ranks 13th. With seven consecutive cuts made, Svensson seems very likely to finally break through and improve on his career-best sixth place finish at the Barbasol. With the field strength not being that much different, I prefer to take the discounted using Svensson instead of climbing up to grab Sungjae Im or Tony Finau.

Svensson will also cost us a unit and will be considered for a FRL bet. I will check the weather again prior to placing those bets and report back on Twitter Wednesday evening.

Tom Hoge +8000 (DraftKings)

How the mighty have fallen? That might be a bit sarcastic but Tom Hoge has surely escaped the form we found him in earlier this season. After hitting an outright on Hoge at Pebble Beach, Tom has been extremely disappointing. Since his 9th place finishes at the PGA Championship of all events, Hoge missed six straight cuts including The Open, the US Open, and the Scottish Open. Needless to say, these events have not gone well for Hoge. Perhaps a downshift in class is just what our previous article favorite needs to get back on track?

Consequently, despite the poor form, Hoge ranks 17th in FedEx Cup points off the form from earlier this season and a couple of strong finishes at The Players and the PGA Championship. With his status on Tour in good standing through the next few years, Hoge can let loose a bit as the season ends and put himself in good form to make a trip to East Lake for the Tour Championship. A win at the 3M Open would be pretty big considering many of the players ahead of Hoge aren’t playing this week.

Based on his approach ranking still being inside the Top 20 of this field alone I think an outright bet is worth this price. We will toss a half-unit on Hoge on DraftKings and also consider him for a FRL bet.

Beau Hossler +10000 (Bet365)

Our final outright on the opening card comes from the triple-digit category with Beau Hossler. Hossler is not going to rank well even in this field tee-to-green. That said, he leads the field in strokes gained putting.

Hossler is a scoring machine and makes for an intriguing DraftKings play if he can somehow find the cutline. He is going to make plenty of birdies (26th) and seems likely to make an eagle (12th). Can he miss this cut? Absolutely. However, as an outright we are merely looking to catch the upside he showed us at the Valero — nearly breaking through with his first career victory.

At 100/1, we can afford to wager 0.4 units on Hossler to win. Find this price at Bet365 or PointsBet. If Hossler putts the lights out we might find ourselves with a cheap outright come Sunday evening.

The 3M Open Betting Card

Net Units Scottish Open: -3.85 units

2022 Profit in Units: +65.025 units

Good luck this week, everyone. Check back on Twitter on Wednesday night for my final betting card and any insights.

Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.

Image Credit: Imagn