San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks Odds, Prediction, & Pick
49ers vs. Seahawks Odds
| 49ers Odds | -7 |
| Seahawks Odds | +7 |
| Over/Under | 43 |
| Date | Thu, Nov. 23 |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. |
| TV | NBC |
The NFL’s Thanksgiving slate will conclude with an NFC West showdown featuring Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers against Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks. Entering play in Week 12, the 49ers own a 1-game lead over the Seahawks for first place in the division, making tonight’s matchup an early playoff game in many respects.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the 49ers as 7-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 43 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
San Francisco 49ers
Purdy getting the ball out quickly
The 49ers offensive line has not played well in 2023, but the ailing unit has been mostly a non-issue thanks to the greatness of Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey. Purdy has the 6th-quickest average time to throw of any quarterback in the NFL this season from a clean pocket and the 5th-quickest average time to throw when under pressure, according to PFF.
Purdy struggled under pressure when he first entered the league but has made notable strides in that area of his game, ranking 7th among 26 qualified passers in passer rating in such situations in 2023. Purdy has also done a masterful job avoiding sacks, even when facing pressure this fall.
Expect Purdy and the 49ers offense to move the ball well tonight against a mediocre Seattle defense.
Talanoa Hufanga OUT for season
Safety Talanoa Hufanga left last weekend’s game against the Buccaneers early with an injury that turned out to be season-ending. Losing Hufanga is a major blow to the San Francisco defense. According to PFF, Hufanga ranked 18th out of 84 safeties in run defense grade through Week 11 and was 32nd in coverage grade. Hufanga is fourth on the team in tackles this year and is tied for the team-lead with three interceptions. In his place, Ji’Ayir Brown is likely to see an expanded role. He played a career-high 36 snaps this past Sunday, providing adequate production against the run and the pass. San Francisco still has plenty of talent on the defensive side of the ball, but it’s impossible to replace a player of Hufanga’s caliber at this point in the season.
Seattle Seahawks
Geno Smith expected to play
According to Gregg Bell, Geno Smith is expected to start on Thursday night after looking “good enough” on Wednesday in practice. Reading between the lines, it is abundantly obvious that Smith is not at 100 percent health going into tonight’s action, with head coach Pete Carroll emphasizing that the team will be “very judicious” with how Smith warms up prior to kickoff – and that is after Smith didn’t touch a football on Monday and Tuesday.
Smith is not the only Seattle player dealing with an ailment heading into this pivotal division matchup. Wide receiver DK Metcalf did not practice at all during the short week due to pain in his toe. Starting running back Kenneth Walker is officially listed as doubtful for tonight due to a strained oblique, making rookie Zach Charbonnet the lead horse for the Seattle ground attack.
Starting right tackle Abraham Lucas will also remain out for this contest, despite practicing this week. In his place, Jason Peters is likely to earn another start at right tackle. Peters played poorly last weekend against the Rams, allowing two quarterback pressures on only 34 pass-blocking snaps, per PFF.
Mediocre Seattle defense facing tough test
The Seahawks run defense ranks 21st in EPA/play and 12th in success rate this fall, and they have yet to face a truly elite rushing attack. The Seahawks allowed 67 rushing yards to David Montgomery and 73 rushing yards to Royce Freeman earlier this season, who are two of the better running backs that they have faced. Christian McCaffrey presents a unique challenge that Seattle has not proven themselves ready to tackle.
Defending the air, Seattle has been equally mediocre, ranking 17th in EPA/play and 16th in success rate. The secondary unit is mostly healthy heading into Week 12, but they are far from an elite unit.
49ers vs. Seahawks – Picks & Predictions
The Seahawks offensive line has struggled mightily to protect Geno Smith this season, allowing the 7th-highest pressure rate of any team in the NFL through 11 weeks. Seattle’s offensive line allowed Baltimore to generate pressure on over half of the team’s dropbacks in Week 9 and they are in for another tough test on Thursday against a San Francisco pass rush that led the NFL in defensive pressure rate in Week 11. There are legitimate concerns as to whether or not Geno Smith is healthy enough to be on the field this evening, and his recent struggles against the 49ers should only further concern bettors. The road favorites are heavy favorites for a reason.
PICK: 49ers -7 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)