San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks Betting Odds, Prediction, & Pick

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49ers vs. Seahawks Odds

49ers Odds -3.5
Seahawks Odds +3.5
Over/Under 49
Date Thursday, October 10th
Time 8:15 PM ET
TV Prime Video

Week 6 of the NFL schedule gets underway with a Thursday Night Football affair between the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks. Geno Smith and the Seahawks enter play with a 1-game lead over the 49ers for 1st place in the NFC West, with a chance to put some distance between themselves and the rest of the division with a win.

Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the 49ers as 3.5-point favorites on the spread. The total is set at 49 points.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.

According to Evan Abrams of The Action Network, Brock Purdy is 8-3 SU and 6-5 ATS in 11 career night games. He’s an impressive 5-2 SU/ATS on short rest. Meanwhile, Geno Smith is 2-9 SU as an underdog in primetime and only 3-9 SU on short rest in his career, the latter of which is the 4th-worst mark in the NFL across the last 20 years.

San Francisco 49ers Preview

Time to panic in San Francisco?

San Francisco fans might be unsettled by a 2-3 start to the new campaign, but there’s little doubt that this is still one of the most talented teams in the NFL, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Through 5 games, the 49ers’ offense ranks 10th in DVOA, 8th in EPA/play, and 10th in success rate.

The 49ers’ offensive line ranks 4th best in adjusted line yards, which has helped propel Jordan Mason to the 2nd-most rushing yards in the NFL this season. Brock Purdy currently ranks 6th in EPA/play and 7th in success rate among qualified quarterbacks, while posting the 2nd-highest aDOT of any quarterback in the league.

The primary issue has been San Francisco’s inability to finish drives. They enter play ranked 2nd in offensive yards per game but 29th in red-zone touchdown percentage. Positive regression inside the 20-yard line is likely to occur sooner rather than later. When that happens, there won’t be too many questions about what we think of this offense.

49ers defense looking to get back on track

Talent is not an issue for the 49ers on the defensive side of the ball, but injuries and a lack of consistent production have dragged this unit closer to league average than the top tier early in the season. Entering play, San Francisco’s defense ranks 5th in DVOA but only 13th in EPA/play and 19th in success rate. They have been particularly vulnerable on the ground, ranking 20th in EPA/play and 26th in success rate.

This group will be shorthanded again, playing without DT Jordan Elliott, LB Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles, and S Talanoa Hufanga. Starting CB Charvarius Ward is listed as questionable after being limited at practice on Wednesday.

Seattle Seahawks Preview

What to expect from Seahawks offense

Seattle’s offense has a clear philosophy under new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb: get the ball out of Geno Smith’s hands quickly and play fast. Through 5 weeks, the Seahawks offense has played at the 4th-quickest pace in the NFL, and Smith has the 8th-most average time to throw of any qualified quarterback.

The obvious corollary of getting the ball out of Smith’s hands quickly is that there will be more emphasis on the short passing game than the deep ball. Entering play, Smith ranks 31st out of 35 qualified quarterbacks in aDOT.

Can Seattle stop the run on Thursday?

Entering play, Seattle’s run defense doesn’t appear to be too problematic, ranking 10th in rush EPA/play. However, they have been less impressive on a down-to-down basis, ranking 19th in success rate allowed to opposing rushing attacks. Excluding Week 1, when they played a rookie quarterback making his first career start on the road, Seattle’s run defense ranks 23rd in success rate, and even that number is buoyed by a Week 3 matchup against the offensively-challenged Dolphins. Across the last 2 weeks, Seattle’s run defense ranks 27th in success rate.

The Seahawks have a tough task in front of them, facing a 49ers offense that runs the ball more frequently than the league average. It doesn’t help that Seattle has already ruled out EDGE Uchenna Nwosu, DT Byron Murphy II, and CB Tariq Woolen for this important divisional matchup.

49ers vs. Seahawks Prediction

Through 5 weeks, it’s growing increasingly evident that the 49ers are only pretending to be a pretender, when in reality, this team still has a very legitimate chance to get back to the Super Bowl. Brock Purdy has been a top-7 quarterback this season, by both EPA/play and success rate. He’s supported by a strong offensive line, elite skill position players, and a capable defense. Given the injuries on Seattle’s defense, the 49ers are in a good position to get back in the win column. Buying the hook to get the spread down to a field goal could be worthwhile. Alternatively, bettors could also split their investment, with part of their wager on San Francisco (-3) and part of their wager on San Francisco (-3.5), to protect against a game script that comes down to a late field goal.

PICK: 49ers -3 (-129, DraftKings)

Image Credit: Getty Images

About the Author

nickgalaida
Nick Galaida (nickgalaida)

A failed high school pitcher, Nick Galaida discovered that he has a higher aptitude for analyzing and writing about sports than he does playing them. To his friends, he is better known as “The Commish.” When he’s not organizing a fantasy league, placing a bet, or writing an article, he’s probably nose-deep in a book—further illustrating the point that his niche in this world is as a nerd rather than an athlete. Follow Nick on Twitter – @CommishFilmRoom