Levitan's Leverage: Week 13
I really like this Week 13 slate. Although we have a game with a near-record-setting over/under, it’s not that appealing to me (see Fades section). We have some tremendous value available at quarterback (see Situations), running back (see Situations) and wide receiver (see Cash Plays). We also have some guys I really want to pay up for. For my cash games, I think it sets up nicely as a “stars and scrubs” kind of week.
The point of this column is to use the news, snap counts, usage and trends to both be a little contrarian and avoid whiffs. All comments refer to FanDuel pricing.
FADES
1. Eli Manning, Rashad Jennings and Odell Beckham
Yes, Eli Manning, Rashad Jennings, Odell Beckham and the entire Giants offense looked very strong last Sunday night as they scored four touchdowns against the Cowboys. However, we’re going to see a lot of offenses get healthy against the Cowboys as their no-name, no-talent defense regresses back to earth. Now the 3-8 Giants have a far stiffer test, trying to muster the energy in another lost season to go to sleepy Jacksonville and face a Jags team capable of playing smash-mouth defense (as seen in Indy last week). Note that this game opened at a meager Giants -2 with a team total of 23 points, a line the oddsmakers knew would generate a massive amount of tickets on NYG. Even though it’s a plus spot on paper from a matchup perspective for the G-Men, I think the hungrier Jags show up big and win the game. I’m off all Giants, including Beckham – who is going to be very popular even though his $8500 pricetag higher than Josh Gordon ($8100) and Julio Jones ($8300), and just below T.Y. Hilton ($8700) and Emmanuel Sanders ($8800). When even my mom is talking about a player and his amazing catch, it’s usually time to fade.
2. The Patriots/Packers game (except Rob Gronkowski)
Everyone is going to be trying to get a piece of NE/GB, as the total opened at an absurd 60 in some shops – the highest over/under since the Greatest Show on Turf Rams played the 49ers in 2000 (63 over/under). The only player I’ll own in this game Sunday is Rob Gronkowski.
We can poke major holes in just about every other player. Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb have to deal with Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner and the Bill Belichick scheme. … Eddie Lacy faces a Patriots defense that has shut down the run games of Detroit, Indy and Denver in their last three outings. … Tom Brady is going to Lambeau, where the Packers are giving up just 17.0 points per game on the year. … New England will likely take attempt a run-heavy approach to exploit a weaker Green Bay run D – but will Jonas Gray steal a bit of power-back work this week? And we know if the score gets away from the Patriots, LeGarrette Blount won’t play. … Tim Wright was a fluky stud last week, playing on 61 snaps when his previous season-high was 21.
GPP STACK
Andrew Luck, T.Y. Hilton and Coby Fleener
As I noted last week when discussing a Peyton Manning/Demaryius Thomas stack, I’ve been trying to “pay up to be contrarian” in GPPs. It worked in Week 12 as Peyton was 3.7 percent owned in the Sunday Million and Demaryius was 9.7 percent. I don’t expect the ownership percentages to be as low with Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton this week, but Luck is coming off a sub-par game (15.02 FD points) against the Jaguars. Hopefully that puts some stink on him, because he’s a great bet to erupt at home via a pass-heavy gameplan against a Redskins defense that is seventh in yards per carry allowed (3.82) but 23rd in yards per attempt allowed (7.19). One way we can ensure we’re contrarian is to not only make the obvious stack with explosive top target T.Y. Hilton, but to also include Coby Fleener. We know no one is going to be on him after the entire world (myself included) got burned last week, and he also qualifies as a value play at $5800. Although Fleener’s box score was a frustrating 2-38-0 on four targets, he played on 75.0 percent of the targets and ran 31 pass routes. Dwayne Allen (ankle) remains unlikely to play as of this writing and although I like Dan Herron, he’s no Ahmad Bradshaw in the pass game.
SITUATIONS TO CAPITALIZE ON
1. Ryan Fitzpatrick’s QB-minimum price
I almost always either pay up for quarterback, or go with a value guy I really like (such as Matt Ryan and Mark Sanchez last week). It’s rare I’ll go for a limited quarterback that doesn’t have 300-yard, 3-TD upside. However, the timing of Ryan Mallett’s season-ending pec injury has created a situation where Ryan Fitzpatrick is QB minimum salary ($5000). In the nine games Fitz started earlier this season, he had at least 13 FanDuel points seven times and went over 19 FD points three times. Since we’re only aiming for 2x salary in cash games (10 FD points in this case), Fitz makes for a fine cash game play as it opens up the entire player pool at other positions. It certainly helps that he’s at home, in a dome, against the Titans — a fine spot. When these two teams met in Week 8 in Tennessee, Fitz went 19-of-35 for 227 yards with one TD and no INTs (14.28 FD points). Note that I would not use Fitz in GPP because he’s unlikely to go for the 3x or 4x salary we need to win one of the large-field tournaments. But I like him in cash because I’m not on normal value candidates such Sanchez (already played) and Ryan (facing a red-hot ARZ secondary). I also don’t think this is the week to pay up for Drew Brees (away from Superdome), Tom Brady (at Lambeau), Aaron Rodgers (Darrelle Revis) or Peyton Manning (at Arrowhead).
2. Tre Mason finally getting a plus matchup
Tre Mason costs just $6000, perhaps what you’d expect from a running back with one touchdown and one 100-yard game on the season. However, that price and those stats are misleading. Mason and the Rams have faced a gauntlet of a schedule since he broke into the lineup seven games ago (SF, SEA, at KC, at SF, at ARZ, vs. DEN, at SD). Given those opponents, I’m actually impressed that Mason was even able to sustain a 4.12 YPC and tighten his grip on the feature back job. Now he finally gets a spot he can feast on: Home vs. a Raiders team coming off their first win. With the Rams a solid 7-point favorite, we can ignore the game-flow concerns that Mason’s two-down skill set brings and safely expect 20 touches. He’s a cash game and GPP play for me.
MATCHUPS TO EXPLOIT
1. Arian Foster against the Titans front
By just about every metric available, the Titans play bottom-three run defense. They are the NFL’s definition of running game Swiss Cheese, getting lit by LeSean McCoy (21-130-1), Le’Veon Bell (33-204-1) and Justin Forsett (20-112-1) over their last three games. If it weren’t for a nagging groin injury that has been bothering Arian Foster since Week 9, he would be my no-doubt No. 2 raw running back play this week. Of course, we’ve seen throughout the season how owners are hesitant to roster players in their first game back off injury. That gives us a ton of value in paying up for Foster at $8700, as he’s practiced all week and is fully expected to suit up Sunday. When he played at Tennessee in Week 8, he went 20-151-2 on the ground and 4-22-1 as a receiver. Another line like that is well within reach. Foster is going to be in my GPP lineups as long as there’s no word of a setback before Sunday morning.
2. Charles Johnson against the Panthers corners
A successful strategy we’ve been using all season is attacking the Panthers defense – especially their woeful corners. This is a unit that’s given up the eighth-most points to opposing wideouts and ranks 28th in PFF’s team pass coverage grades. Meanwhile, size/speed specimen Charles Johnson has quickly established himself as Minnesota’s No. 1 wideout, passing up a terribly raw Cordarrelle Patterson and a washed up Greg Jennings. Over the last two weeks, Johnson has gone 9-139-1 on a team-high 18 targets and played on 67-of-69 snaps last week. The 6’2/217 Grand Valley State product with 4.38 wheels isn’t a total steal at $6300, but I think that will help keep him very low owned in GPPs. That’s where I’d use him as Teddy Bridgewater’s inconsistency is a concern here.
WHO I’LL HAVE MOST OF IN FANDUEL CASH GAMES
QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Andrew Luck
RB: Le’Veon Bell, Tre Mason, Justin Forsett, C.J. Anderson, Dan Herron, Isaiah Crowell
WR: T.Y. Hilton, Antonio Brown, Kenny Stills, Josh Gordon, Mike Wallace, A.J. Green, Emmanuel Sanders
TE: Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham
D: Rams, Dolphins, Colts