Levitan's Leverage: Week 16
My favorite kind of lineup to build is the “stars and scrubs” style. I have a feeling many people feel the same way and are also quickly realizing how valuable a min-priced quarterback is on FanDuel. The issue I’m struggling with this week is that the spots for Jimmy Clausen (vs. DET) and Case Keenum (vs. BAL) are far worse than what we saw for Week 13 Ryan Fitzpatrick (vs. TEN), Week 15 Derek Anderson (vs. TB) and Week 15 Johnny Manziel (vs. CIN, ugh). Figuring out how likely Clausen and Keenum are to reach 10 FanDuel points is going to be the key to the week. Right now, I have exposure to both in my cash game lineups, but no GPPs.
Please note that this column only includes the Sunday through Monday slate. Saturday’s PHI/WAS and SD/SF games are not in play here. Also, all comments refer to FanDuel pricing. The point of this column is to use the news, snap counts, usage and trends to both be a little contrarian and avoid whiffs.
FADES
1. Sammy Watkins, WR, and Fred Jackson, RB, Bills
Regular readers of this column know I love to think about spots for teams as a whole, not just individual matchups. And when I don’t like a spot for a team, I simply fade the whole squad no matter what the Xs and Os look like. Which brings us to this week’s Buffalo at Oakland game. We have a Bills team, coming off a predictable yet still rousing upset of the Packers, now having to travel across the country to a Raiders team that is 2-0 in their last two games in the Black Hole. We should also have questions about just how good Sammy Watkins ($6900) is right now, as he’s been held under 40 yards in five of his last six games and has zero touchdowns during that span. I don’t dislike Fred Jackson ($6700) as much as Sammy, but I prefer Lamar Miller, Latavius Murray and Tre Mason – each of whom is cheaper. Also note this game’s meager over/under of 39, the second-lowest total of the week.
2. Odell Beckham, WR, Giants
The last time I faded Odell Beckham (Week 13), we got middling results as he posted 7-90-0 at Jacksonville. I’m going back to the well. This time, Beckham and Eli Manning have to face a Rams defense that has allowed just two passing touchdowns over their last five games. It’s not going be ODB cutting through butter like he did against the “defenses” of the Redskins, Titans and Cowboys in three of the last four weeks. The worst part of trying to squeeze more than we already have out of Beckham is his price, as it’s surged to $9000. That’s more than Antonio Brown, Jordy Nelson and Dez Bryant – and it means 7-90-0 just won’t be good enough. Last week was the week to be on the ODB train and I’m not going to be a week late to this party.
CONTRARIAN GPP STACK
Josh McCown, Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans
I’ve been experimenting with “game stacks” lately in large-field GPPs. Basically, this means using as many players from a certain game, provided it makes sense. This works especially well when we can comfortably map out how a game will flow. In the case of this week’s Packers at Bucs game, I expect a highly motivated Green Bay team (off a loss, fighting for NFC’s No. 1 seed) to jump all over Tampa via all four of their major weapons – Aaron Rodgers, Eddie Lacy, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb. That will lead to tons of catch-up time for the Bucs, with Josh McCown, Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans working against underperforming Packers corners Sam Shields and Tramon Williams. In turn, the Packers can ride Lacy in the second half. I especially like this Bucs stack because the tight ends/complementary wideouts/backs aren’t involved in the pass game, the weather will be ideal, and the price points on McCown/V-Jax/Evans are very appetizing.
SITUATIONS TO CAPITALIZE ON
1. Travis Kelce’s rising role
Just when everyone (myself included) gave up on Travis Kelce, Andy Reid flipped the switch. Even though Anthony Fasano has been healthy the last two weeks, Kelce has played on 80.4 percent of the snaps. He ran a season-high 46 pass routes in Week 14 and followed that up by running 30 in Week 15 – his third-highest total of the season. Predictably, Kelce has turned that bump in usage into 7-110-0 and 5-59-1. Now comes a matchup against a Steelers defense that is atrocious at every level. The over/under sits comfortably at 46.5, with the Chiefs team total at 21.5. Paying up for Rob Gronkowski has been a consistent winning cash-game strategy for more than two months now, but he’s difficult to fit this week, unless we take the Case Keenum/Jimmy Clausen plunge at quarterback.
2. Donte Moncrief’s spot if T.Y. Hilton (hamstring) sits
Hindsight is obviously 20-20, but I was way too high on Donte Moncrief last week. With so many mouths to feed in Indy, he’s just not high enough on the totem pole (3.7 targets per game over last four). But if T.Y. Hilton (hamstring) ends up resting in this game against Dallas, I’m going right back in. Hilton’s 9.0 targets per game will be spread around, but the primary beneficiary figures to be Moncrief. Reggie Wayne (old, triceps) is a liability on the field and could see his snaps reduced in this one while Hakeem Nicks continues to run behind Moncrief in terms of playing time. Ideally, everyone that took the airball last week on Moncrief will be part of the “never again” crowd, leading to low ownership.
MATCHUPS TO EXPLOIT
1. Tre Mason vs. the Giants’ run defense
The last time Tre Mason was at home in a plus matchup (Week 13 vs. OAK), he racked up 14-117-2 on the ground and 3-47-1 through the air. After scuffling against the underrated Redskins run defense (Week 14) and the elite Cardinals (Week 15), it’s time to jump back in. As mentioned in the Odell Beckham notes, I fully expect the Rams to give Eli Manning and the Giants offense a rude awakening. That sets up nicely for Mason to get a lot of volume against a run defense that ranks 30th in yards per game allowed, 32nd in yards per carry allowed and T-23rd in touchdowns allowed. Mason and Rams D is a correlation play I’m strongly considering for my main cash game lineup.
2. Latavius Murray’s breakout spot
In two games since returning from a concussion, Latavius Murray has 39 touches compared to six for Darren McFadden and two for Maurice Jones-Drew. We know this is his backfield. So a week after fading him due to concerns of a blowout in Arrowhead, we can comfortably fire him up against a Bills team that you beat by running, not throwing. As pointed out by Evan Silva in his Matchups column, the Bills are giving up 97.8 yards and 1.0 TDs to opposing running backs over their last eight games at a 4.72 YPC clip. A Friday betting line move toward the Bills has me wavering a bit on a going all-in on a Raiders upset, but I’d be very surprised if they didn’t keep the game close.
WHO I’LL HAVE MOST OF IN FANDUEL CASH GAMES
QB: Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford, Case Keenum, Jimmy Clausen
RB: Le’Veon Bell, Tre Mason, Latavius Murray, Joique Bell, C.J. Anderson, Jeremy Hill, Lamar Miller
WR: Jordy Nelson, Calvin Johnson, Harry Douglas (if Julio Jones sits), Kenny Stills, Donte Moncrief (if T.Y. Hilton sits)
TE: Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce
D: Rams, Seahawks, Panthers, Ravens