MLB Daily Grind Down April 16th Part 2
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit.
While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries. The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
The weather bug has hit a few games already this year and could be a factor in a couple more tonight. With only one day game on the schedule and most of the sites only running leagues for the night games, I am going to ignore the first Rockies game in today’s Grind Down. There is a full schedule of games though, so let’s get right into it:
Kansas City at Atlanta
| Kansas City | Atlanta | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turner Field | 7:10 PM | ||||||
| Jeremy Guthrie (2-0 REC, 3.55 ERA, 6.0 Avg IP) | Kris Medlen (1-1 REC, 1.50 ERA, 6.0 Avg IP) | ||||||
| PvB | (21-87) H/AB, 7 XBHA, 3 HRA, 19 KA | PvB | (4-12) H/AB, 1 XBHA, 1 HRA, 0 KA | ||||
| ROAD | 80 IP, 4.05 ERA, 0.29 BAA, 5.1 K/9 | HOME | 76.2 IP, 1.76 ERA, 0.211 BAA, 8.2 K/9 | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
KCR BvP  | KCR vs R | ATL BvP | ATL vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 7.0
- Atlanta -175
Pitchers
- Home I love Kris Medlen today against the Royals. While his strikeout numbers are down this year, I think that is just an aberration and I think he picks those up starting in this game. He is one of the biggest favorites of the day and pitches at home where he dominated last season.
- Away Jeremy Guthrie isn’t in a terrible spot today, but the fact that he is a big underdog on the road makes me want to look the other way. Even if he only gives up a couple of runs, he could still be stuck with the loss.
Batters
- Home Jason Heyward and Justin Upton are the only two guys that I would look at for the Braves. Heyward is off to a terrible start this season, but he is still scoring fantasy points by getting runs and RBI’s. As far as Upton goes, the opposite is true, he is really firing on all cylinders.
- Away Stay away from the Royals hitters today. Crazier things have happened, but why take the chance?
Washington at Miami
| Washington | Miami | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlins Park | 7:10 PM | ||||||
| Dan Haren (1-1 REC, 9.00 ERA, 6.1 Avg IP) | Alex Sanabia (1-1 REC, 4.91 ERA, 5.0 Avg IP) | ||||||
| PvB | (32-118) H/AB, 3 XBHA, 1 HRA, 20 KA | PvB | (4-20) H/AB, 1 XBHA, 1 HRA, 2 KA | ||||
| ROAD | 84.1 IP, 3.95 ERA, 0.271 BAA, 8 K/9 | HOME | 0 | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| WSN BvP | WSN vs R | MIA BvP | MIA vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
h3. Las Vegas
- OU 8.0
- Washington -153
Pitchers
- Home Alex Sanabia is a young pitcher with a high WHIP. He has a tough matchup against this Nationals offense that has power in their 1-6 hitters. Not a great option.
- Away Dan Haren will likely be on a lot of teams today. He is a big favorite, has a big name, and is playing the Marlins who really struggle offensively. I am very tempted to take him, but he just hasn’t looked very good in his first two starts. I think I might avoid him today.
Batters
- Home With the Nationals, you really just have to hope you take their hitters on the right day. Some days they can put up a lot of runs and other days they just don’t show up. I like Ryan Zimmerman the most though, he is still really cheap on a few sites and is coming off of his best game of the season.
- Away Like I said, Haren hasn’t looked very good in his first couple of starts, but it’s tough to tell if his struggles continue or if he finds confidence going against a weak offense. I may take a shot on Justin Ruggiano.
Philadelphia at Cincinnati
| Philadelphia | Cincinnati | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Great American Ball Park | 7:10 PM | ||||||
| Kyle Kendrick (1-1 REC, 5.40 ERA, 5.1 Avg IP) | Homer Bailey (1-1 REC, 5.73 ERA, 5.2 Avg IP) | ||||||
| PvB | (23-74) H/AB, 9 XBHA, 6 HRA, 6 KA | PvB | (24-82) H/AB, 5 XBHA, 1 HRA, 12 KA | ||||
| ROAD | 73.2 IP, 3.3 ERA, 0.262 BAA, 5.7 K/9 | HOME | 99.1 IP, 5.16 ERA, 0.299 BAA, 7.2 K/9 | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| PHI BvP | PHI vs R | CIN BvP | CIN vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8.0
- Cincinnati -152
Pitchers
- Home Homer Bailey is usually a very good pitcher, but he got rocked in his last outing against the Cardinals. I think he bounces back nicely against the Phillies. Only 3 hitters on the whole Phillies roster have ever recorded an RBI against Bailey. I would rather take Bailey today than to take a chance on Haren.
- Away Kyle Kendrick isn’t a high K/per 9 inning type of pitcher and he typically has been very inconsistent from start to start. Not much fantasy appeal here.
Batters
- Home Shin-Soo Choo should be on your radar today. He only has 3 at bats against Kendrick but two of those were for HR’s. Joey Votto should also be on your radar, he seems to have found his swing and I think he takes Kendrick deep tonight.
- Away I’m not high on the Phillies bats today. Chase Utley has been good, but the rest of the team is sort of slugging along.
Texas at Chicago Cubs
| Texas | Chicago Cubs | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wrigley Field | 8:05 PM | ||||||
| Derek Holland (0-1 REC, 2.40 ERA, 5.2 Avg IP) | Travis Wood (1-0 REC, 1.46 ERA, 5.2 Avg IP) | ||||||
| PvB | (10-33) H/AB, 6 XBHA, 4 HRA, 8 KA | PvB | (11-23) H/AB, 4 XBHA, 3 HRA, 2 KA | ||||
| ROAD | 81.1 IP, 3.65 ERA, 0.228 BAA, 6.8 K/9 | HOME | 83.2 IP, 4.52 ERA, 0.235 BAA, 7.4 K/9 | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| TEX BvP | TEX vs L | CHC BvP | CHC vs L | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 7.5
- Texas +116
Pitchers
- Home Travis Wood has been very good this season. He has only given up 2 earned run in 2 starts, but in these situations, I like to take the pitcher with a better offense and that would be Holland. I think Wood is a solid value play especially on a site that Draftstreet where he is so cheap and you can take a couple of different pitchers.
- Away Derek Holland is a pitcher that I am really high on today. He gets to face a weak offensive team in the Cubs and he doesn’t have to face them in Arlington. Last season he was a much better pitcher on the road and I expect a very solid outing from him today even though he has given up 4 HR’s to these Cubs in the past.
Batters
- Home I don’t expect a ton of offense in this one, but Starlin Castro is really good against lefties and could get a couple of hits. Soriano, Lillibridge, and Navarro all have a HR off of Holland, but I don’t like them today.
- Away For the Rangers, Lance Berkman has great splits against Wood. He is 7/11 off of him in his career with 2 HR’s and a double.
San Francisco at Milwaukee
| San Francisco | Milwaukee | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miller Park | 8:10 PM | ||||||
| Barry Zito (2-0 REC, 0.00 ERA, 6.0 Avg IP) | Wily Peralta (0-1 REC, 4.50 ERA, 5.2 Avg IP) | ||||||
| PvB | (27-94) H/AB, 13 XBHA, 8 HRA, 15 KA | PvB | (2-4) H/AB, 0 XBHA, 0 HRA, 0 KA | ||||
| ROAD | 83 IP, 4.34 ERA, 0.272 BAA, 5.6 K/9 | HOME | 15 IP, 1.2 ERA, 0.24 BAA, 6 K/9 | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| SFG BvP | SFG vs R | MIL BvP | MIL vs L | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
h3. Las Vegas
- OU 8.5
- Milwaukee -117
Pitchers
- Home There are some pitchers that I just refuse to take unless it’s an amazing matchup. Wily Peralta is one of those guys. His last 5 starts have been a roller coaster in terms of performance and the Giants are a pretty solid team offensively.
- Away Barry Zito is off to a great start and he is still pitching well, especially for his age. But his first two starts were at home and I think that he will struggle a bit today against Milwaukee. He is a little overpriced for what you are getting.
Batters
- Home Ryan Braun is a great play today against Zito. Not only does he crush lefties at home, but he has an OPS of 1.714 against Zito in his career. Love Braun today.
- Away I think the Giants will score some runs today, but it’s hard to tell where the production is going to come from. I would play this one by ear and look for the best value picks once the lineup comes out.