MLB Daily Grind Down: Friday, September 6th Part 2

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2013-09-06 16:17:42

Washington vs. Miami

7:10 PM	Washington – ROAD					Miami – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.247	0.700	20.20%	0.54		0.231	0.623	19.80%	0.43
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.253	0.711	20.10%	0.44		0.232	0.619	19.20%	0.31
SP STATS	Haren – RHP					Fernandez – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.28	5.02	7.90	8.39		1.00	2.33	9.84	12.70
LAST 14 DAYS	1.51	6.89	7.70	6.73		0.84	1.42	11.37	16.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	WSN vs R		WSN BvP			MIA vs R		MIA BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Dan Haren – Haren has actually been a pretty reliable pitcher over the last couple of months. He has an ERA under 3.50, has more wins than losses, and is holding his opponents to around a .230 batting average. Hard not to like his matchup tonight against the Marlins. Only thing going against him is that Fernandez is the opposing pitcher. Starter Rating = 7

• Jose Fernandez – Fernandez’s price has slowly risen all season long and now he is pretty much as expensive as any top ace in baseball. That’s how good he has pitched, especially at home where he has a 1.29 ERA and an incredible 0.87 WHIP. The Nats have found some offense lately, but I think they lose it again tonight against Fernandez. Starter Rating = 8

Batter Grind Down

WAS/MIA – There is a reason why this game’s total is set at 6.5 runs. Neither offense is expected to do much and it should turn into a pitching duel.

LA Dodgers vs. Cincinnati

7:10 PM	LA Dodgers – ROAD					Cincinnati – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.266	0.723	18.40%	0.56		0.249	0.718	20.10%	0.58
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.271	0.728	18.00%	0.44		0.243	0.707	20.10%	0.43
SP STATS	Capuano – LHP					Leake – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.43	4.50	6.71	6.81		1.26	3.51	5.48	9.26
LAST 14 DAYS	1.35	3.71	5.82	7.00		1.48	8.10	5.56	5.07
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	LAD vs R		LAD BvP			CIN vs L		CIN BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Chris Capuano – Capuano has given up a ton of hits this season, his WHIP is the highest it has been in quite a few years. I’m not a big fan of taking pitchers against the Reds at home, and Capuano is not going to change my opinion on that. Starter Rating = 3

• Mike Leake – Leake has hit a rough patch. He has given up at least 4 earned runs in each of his last 4 starts. He’s faced some tough opponents, but it’s not going to get any easier tonight against the Dodgers. You want a pitcher that is pitching well. Starter Rating = 4

Batter Grind Down

LAD – This game has the feeling of one of those 8-7 games. I think both offenses have favorable matchups and I could see them both performing well. For the Dodgers, I like the left handed bats of Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, and Andre Ethier.

CIN – Capuano certainly doesn’t scare anyone, even though the Reds have a few left handed bats, both Votto and Bruce have decent numbers against lefties and I don’t think Capuano pitches very deep into this game. I think you should target Todd Frazier and Brandon Phillips who both hit lefties well.

Detroit vs. Kansas City

8:10 PM	Detroit – ROAD					Kansas City – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.282	0.785	16.90%	0.65		0.258	0.688	16.60%	0.54
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.286	0.787	16.30%	0.52		0.257	0.687	16.70%	0.40
SP STATS	Sanchez – RHP					Shields – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.15	2.68	9.71	13.21		1.24	3.03	7.39	11.41
LAST 14 DAYS	1.27	3.93	9.45	11.03		1.00	1.69	10.24	16.37
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	DET vs R		DET BvP			KCR vs R		KCR BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Anibal Sanchez – A lot of people seem to sleep on the Royals offense. I personally don’t like to take pitchers against them because they rack up a lot of hits and work deep into counts. They also lead the league in not striking out. Sanchez is a great pitcher, but I just don’t see the upside tonight. Starter Rating = 6

• James Shields – Shields has really turned it on in his last two starts. He has only allowed one earned run in 14 innings while striking out 16 batters. But do you take a hot pitcher against the Tigers? That’s a tough call. If for some reason Miggy is out of the lineup, I think I will be taking Shields, if not, I will look elsewhere. Starter Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

DET – Shields has had success against this Tigers lineup with the exception of 2 guys. One is suspended and the other is Miguel Cabrera who is 16/38 with 8 XBH’s against.

KC – I like to lump the Royals in with the A’s and the Indians. You know that they are going to scrap out a few runs, but sometimes you just don’t know where the production is going to come from.

Toronto vs. Minnesota

8:10 PM	Toronto – ROAD					Minnesota – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.252	0.733	18.00%	0.62		0.241	0.698	22.20%	0.54
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.255	0.748	17.90%	0.50		0.238	0.695	22.00%	0.43
SP STATS	Dickey – RHP					Pelfrey – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.27	4.30	7.05	10.08		1.51	4.86	5.48	6.48
LAST 14 DAYS	1.18	2.82	8.55	14.70		1.21	2.41	5.93	9.73
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	TOR vs R		TOR BvP			MIN vs R		MIN BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• R.A. Dickey – Dickey is one of my favorite plays tonight. In his last 5 starts he has an ERA under 3.0 and has a K rate of about 7 per 9 innings. He is pitching well and facing a Twins lineup that is full of AAA players. A lot of people are scared to take Dickey because he was getting lit up earlier in the year, but he has been pitching well and has great upside tonight. Starter Rating = 8

• Mike Pelfrey – I never thought I would see a game with Pelfrey pitching where the over/under is only set at 7.5 runs. You can usually expect Pelfrey to give up about 5 himself, but Pelfrey has actually been pitching good lately. I’m not sure if he has changed something in his mechanics or just had a stroke of good luck, but he’s pitching well and Vegas thinks he will pitch well again tonight. He’s worth a shot if he is cheap. Starter Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

TOR – The Blue Jays have a few good bats in their lineup, and the rest if full of minor league players. I really like Jose Reyes and Edwin Encarnacion tonight even though Pelfrey has been pitching well.

MIN – If Dickey is one of my favorite pitchers tonight, that obviously means that I’m not too high on the Twins bats.

Pittsburgh vs. St. Louis

8:15 PM	Pittsburgh – ROAD					St. Louis – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.245	0.705	22.40%	0.55		0.272	0.743	17.90%	0.61
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.241	0.696	22.10%	0.41		0.284	0.766	17.50%	0.49
SP STATS	Burnett – RHP					Kelly – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.22	3.09	9.68	12.20		1.39	2.82	6.05	4.91
LAST 14 DAYS	1.00	2.53	8.10	14.03		1.44	2.00	4.50	11.67
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	PIT vs R		PIT BvP			STL vs R		STL BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• A.J. Burnett – Burnett has had some killer numbers against the Cardinals this year and the Pirates just seem to have their number. In 5 starts against the Cards this year, Burnett is 3-0 with a 2.59 ERA and 33 K’s over 31 innings pitched. He is actually a slight favorite tonight. This could be a situation where you trust the numbers over the eye test. Starter Rating = 6

• Joe Kelly – I think Kelly has been pitching a little bit better than we can expect from him in the long run. This season he has a 2.82 ERA, but his WHIP is pretty high at 1.387. I expect that ERA to catch up to the number of hits and walks he is giving up, starting with the Pirates tonight. Starter Rating = 4

Batter Grind Down

PIT – At this point, I think you need to consider taking Andrew McCutchen every night. He is getting hits, drawing walks, knocking in runs, and scoring runs himself. He is doing it all. Also, look for Justin Morneau to have a nice game.

STL – Burnett has their number, but one guy to keep your eye on is Matt Carpenter. He has a good track record against Burnett and has a crazy .374 batting average at home this season.

Grind Down: Page 2 – Page 3