MLB Daily Grind Down: Friday, September 6th Part 3

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2013-09-06 16:17:44

Texas vs. LA Angels

10:05 PM	Texas – ROAD					LA Angels – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.262	0.740	16.80%	0.62		0.263	0.743	18.90%	0.61
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.266	0.747	17.10%	0.48		0.270	0.753	18.80%	0.48
SP STATS	Garza – RHP					Wilson – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.15	3.55	8.20	11.96		1.37	3.35	8.08	11.65
LAST 14 DAYS	1.19	4.35	11.14	13.07		1.38	2.95	6.46	9.70
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	TEX vs L		TEX BvP			LAA vs R		LAA BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Matt Garza – Garza is a high K pitcher, but you have to live with the fact that he usually gives up a few runs each start. He has given up at least 4 earned runs in four of his last five starts. The Angels offense isn’t as good as it should be, but they can still have big nights every now and then, just ask David Price. I think Garza is a mid-risk, mid-reward play tonight. Starter Rating = 6

• C.J. Wilson – Wilson faces his old team for the second time this season. The first time didn’t turn out too well for him as he gave up 6 earned runs in only 4 innings pitched. That game was played in Arlington though so I expect it to be a little different this time around now that it is in Angels Stadium where Wilson has a 2.25 ERA this season. Very surprisingly, I think Wilson has the bigger upside of these two pitchers, but just slightly. Starter Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

TEX – Adrian Beltre, Ian Kinsler, and Alex Rios have all taken Wilson deep. They all have decent matchups, but I think they are overpriced, especially considering how low the run total for this game is expected to be.

LAA – Mike Trout continues to pad the stats on his great season and I think a lot more people would be talking about him if the Angels were in the playoff race. He is pretty much matchup proof and he is one of my top OF plays against Garza.

Houston vs. Oakland

10:07 PM	Houston – ROAD					Oakland – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.239	0.683	25.60%	0.54		0.244	0.718	19.40%	0.59
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.237	0.678	25.30%	0.41		0.245	0.735	20.00%	0.49
SP STATS	Keuchel – LHP					Griffin – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.48	4.77	6.75	6.70		1.17	3.84	7.21	10.36
LAST 14 DAYS	0.93	1.93	6.43	10.50		1.28	4.50	9.00	11.67
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	HOU vs R		HOU BvP			OAK vs L		OAK BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Dallas Keuchel – I could break down the numbers on why I don’t think Keuchel is a good play tonight, but at this point in the season, everyone knows not to take Keuchel, especially against the A’s.

• A.J. Griffin – What’s not to like about Griffin tonight, he has a 3.41 ERA at home, he’s facing an Astros lineup that strikes out more than any other in baseball, and he should get plenty of run support from his offense. Low risk, high reward play here, especially considering the price. Starter Rating = 8

Batter Grind Down

HOU – The Astros have found an offense over the last month, but they are still striking out with the best of them. As much as I would like to, I just can’t find any Astros bat worth taking.

OAK – There are a few players on the A’s that really hit lefties well. Josh Donaldson (.329), Jed Lowrie (.291), and Yoenis Cespedes (.252) all have to be considered at their respective positions against Keuchel.

Colorado vs. San Diego

10:10 PM	Colorado – ROAD					San Diego – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.264	0.735	19.80%	0.60		0.247	0.693	20.90%	0.54
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.266	0.749	19.90%	0.48		0.244	0.677	20.80%	0.39
SP STATS	Nicasio – RHP					Smith – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.42	4.82	6.68	7.54		2.30	11.37	11.07	1.87
LAST 14 DAYS	1.50	3.94	9.00	9.67
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	COL vs R		COL BvP			SDP vs R		SDP BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Juan Nicasio – It’s crazy how much a ballpark can affect a game. If these two same pitchers were playing in Coors instead of Petco, I think the over/under would be around 11, instead it is set at 7.5. I haven’t really considered taking Nicasio much this season, but a matchup against the Padres in Petco makes just about any pitcher in play. Starter Rating = 6

• Burch Smith – Smith has one thing going for him, he is basically minimum salary across the board. He hasn’t been great so far in the majors, but he did have a 1.82 ERA in the minors. He’s definitely worth a shot in GPP’s. Starter Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

COL – Whenever you get an unknown with a pitcher like Smith, you can look at it two ways, either avoid the situation altogether, or take a chance on either Smith or the bats against him. Not a bad spot for a Rockies stack.

SD – Chase Headley has some good BvP against Nicasio going 6/9 with 2 HR’s. He is really cheap and will let you spend elsewhere if you take him. I also like leadoff man Will Venable.

Tampa Bay vs. Seattle

10:10 PM	Tampa Bay – ROAD					Seattle – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.262	0.748	18.70%	0.62		0.243	0.706	21.70%	0.54
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.253	0.739	18.70%	0.49		0.248	0.728	21.50%	0.47
SP STATS	Cobb – RHP					Iwakuma – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.18	2.82	8.24	12.06		1.02	2.92	7.73	11.76
LAST 14 DAYS	1.35	2.29	7.97	11.73		1.20	2.70	8.10	12.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	TBR vs R		TBR BvP			SEA vs R		SEA BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Alex Cobb – Cobb is back and pitching just like he did earlier in the season. He has an ERA under 3, a K rate of 8.2 per 8 innings, and a good matchup against the Mariners in a pitcher-friendly park. The only downside is that he will have a tough time picking up the win with Iwakuma pitching. Starter Rating = 7

• Hisashi Iwakuma – Iwakuma has a 2.98 ERA at home which is already impressive, but when you look at his WHIP at home, that’s even more impressive. His WHIP is 0.86. I think this one will be a pitchers duel. Starter Rating = 7

Batter Grind Down

TB/SEA – Over/under of only 7 runs and both pitchers rack up the strikeouts, I’m staying any from the hitters in this one.

Arizona vs. San Francisco

10:15 PM	Arizona – ROAD					San Francisco – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.259	0.717	18.30%	0.56		0.259	0.692	16.90%	0.51
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.257	0.716	18.90%	0.45		0.255	0.670	17.20%	0.36
SP STATS	Corbin – LHP					Petit – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.08	2.96	7.90	12.38		1.35	3.12	12.11	14.03
LAST 14 DAYS	1.36	6.98	9.42	9.37		1.42	3.00	12.00	16.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	ARI vs R		ARI BvP			SFG vs L		SFG BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Patrick Corbin – Corbin has had two very rare bad starts in a row, one of which was against the team he faces tonight. The Giants roughed him up for 5 earned runs on 9 hits. Most people would see that and think to avoid him, but I like Corbin to have a bounce back game in this one. The Giants are only batting .257 against lefties and .259 at home on the season. Starter Rating = 6

• Yusmeiro Petit – Petit has 4 starts under his belt this season, in all four he has given up 2 earned runs but he has gotten better in each start, capped off by his last start which was against the D-Backs in which he struck out 10 batters on 6 innings. I’m still having a hard time trusting him, but he’s cheap and pitched well against the D-Backs just a few days ago. Starter Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

ARI – Another game with a low over/under. I think Prado and Goldschmidt are in play as they both have been swinging hot bats and we still don’t know if Petit can keep pitching this well.

SF – Hunter Pence had a big game against Corbin the other day. Buster Posey is also in play if he is in the lineup.